Chris Bishop emerges as successor-in-waiting as half of voters want Christopher Luxon gone

Wednesday, 15 October 2025

Around one sixth (16%) of voters prefer Chris Bishop as the next leader. Bishop’s support is strongest among the specific segment of voters who are considering switching their vote.

Chris Bishop has narrowly emerged as the public’s preferred successor to Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, as nearly half of voters say the National Party should replace its leader before the next election.

The latest The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll with Infrastructure New Zealand shows 49% of voters think National should change leader, compared with 38% who believe Luxon should stay. Another 12% are unsure.

Even among National supporters, nearly one in four (23%) want a change at the top.

Among possible replacements, infrastructure and transport minister Bishop leads clearly with 16% support, followed by education minister Erica Stanford (12%), finance minister Nicola Willis (11%), and health minister Simeon Brown (8%).

Around four in 10 voters (37%) are unsure who should take over.

A leadership change could deliver a measurable electoral lift for National. Bishop’s appeal is strongest among those who say a leadership change would make them more likely to vote National – 18% of that group chose him as their preferred next leader.

He also outranks other contenders among Labour, NZ First and ACT supporters, while Willis holds only a narrow edge among National’s own base.

Want to stay in the know? Sign up for the latest news alerts here (iPhone) or here (Android)

And while most voters (56%) say a change in leader would make no difference to their vote, 22% say they would be more likely to consider voting for National if Luxon were removed. Only 10% say they would be less likely to vote for the party.

Bishop holds the housing, infrastructure, resource management reform, and transport portfolios. He’s also Leader of the House, associate minister of finance, and associate sports minister. Bishop also chaired National’s 2023 general election campaign.

Known as Bish, he was first elected in 2014 and represents Hutt South where he lives with his wife Jenna and their two young children.

The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll with Infrastructure New Zealand.

Before entering Parliament, he worked as a tobacco lobbyist and a researcher for the National Party in Opposition and later as an adviser to ministers in the John Key-led government.

Luxon under pressure as voters question direction

The results underline a deepening unease with Luxon’s leadership after months of declining personal ratings and growing public frustration with the Government’s performance.

Luxon’s personal ratings have deteriorated sharply. His net favourability has fallen to–24, down six points since June, while just 36% of voters prefer him as Prime Minister, compared with 45% for Chris Hipkins, who has extended his lead.

The poll reveals a majority of the electorate is dissatisfied with the National-led government's current track record.

Approximately half of all voters (49%) explicitly disagree with the assertion that Luxon and the National Party are doing a good job running the country at this time.

This disapproval is further underscored by widespread belief that the government has failed to deliver on its mandate. Approximately 49% of voters disagree that the government has changed things for the better.

A similar percentage (47%) disagree that Luxon and National have lived up to the promises they made at the last election.

Voter dissatisfaction is clear in strongly negative net scores: -22 for keeping election promises and -19 for overall governance. (A net score shows the difference between those who agree and those who disagree.)

At the same time, some voters recognise the constraints of coalition politics, with a plurality (net +13) agreeing that Luxon and the National Party have been limited by their coalition partners.

Luxon’s leadership has been under scrutiny for much of the year as National’s poll numbers have struggled to gain traction.

Despite the party’s repeated promises to ignite economic growth and deliver on key policies, voter and business confidence has remained muted, and public dissatisfaction has grown alongside broader concerns about the economy and cost of living.

Earlier on Wednesday, The Post revealed the wider findings of the October Freshwater Strategy poll, which underline the challenges facing Luxon and the National Party.

Labour has risen seven points since the 2023 election to 34%, overtaking National, which has slipped to 31%. NZ First has climbed to 11%, and is buoyed by renewed support for Winston Peters.

Prime Minister Luxon’s personal ratings continue to slide. His net favourability has fallen to –24, while only 36% of voters prefer him as Prime Minister, compared with 45% for Labour leader Chris Hipkins, who has extended his lead.

Hipkins’ overall favourability has softened slightly (net 0, down 4 points) but still far outperforms Luxon. Former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern remains the most popular political figure nationally, with a net +11.

The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll with Infrastructure NZ interviewed n=1050 eligible voters in New Zealand, aged 18+ online, between October 3-8, 2025. Margin of error +/- 3%. Data are weighted to be representative of New Zealand voters.