New Zealand-Cook Islands dispute now ‘entrenched’

Sunday, 16 November 2025

Foreign Minister Winston Peters says there is an agreement, and if the Cook Islands wants to change that, NZ should be told.

ANALYSIS: A fractured relationship with the Cook Islands may not be healed until an election settles a critical question for the realm nation: What will its future with New Zealand be?

The hard line approach Wellington is taking over agreements forged with China was further revealed this week, when details of Foreign Minister Winston Peters’ decision to withhold a total $30 million of funding for the Cook Islands government spilled into the public.

Months after the rupture came into public view, the ink has dried on the deals between the Cook Islands and Beijing. Wellington wants assurances which Avarua has not given. New terms for the decades-long relationship between New Zealand and the Cook Islands appear far from being achieved.

'It has become very entrenched,“ said Anna Powles, a Massey University Pacific geopolitics expert.

The dispute between the Government and Cook Islands reached crisis point in February, when Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown travelled to China to sign a series of agreements which concerned New Zealand.

Beforehand, Peters took the remarkable step of publicly airing the Government’s grievance with Brown, claiming the prime minister had failed to consult New Zealand about the agreements.

Brown has consistently denied such consultation was required.

But Peters has insisted the agreements -- not only a comprehensive strategic partnership with Beijing, but deals on the ocean economy, marine infrastructure, seabed mining, and a $4.6 million aid agreement -- could pose a “risk to our core national interest”.

There has been disagreement between Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown and opposition MPs on the China agreements and a number of Brown's initiatives.

The risk has not been explicitly stated but can be implicitly understood: New Zealand officials have for years warned of the risk of China setting up military or dual-use facilities, and military-supported resource exploitation, in the Pacific.

The Cook Islands is self-governing but has a free association arrangement with New Zealand, which helps the island nation with foreign affairs, defence, and provides its people New Zealand passports. This assistance comes with obligations for the Cook Islands, however.

Powles said under the New Zealand-Cook Islands 2001 joint declaration “it's clear that Cook Islands does have an obligation to share any agreements that could potentially be seen as national security issues for for New Zealand”.

“So resolving the relationship requires a clear agreement between the two countries on what their obligations are to each other, and part of that will be rebuilding trust, which in turn, means that the core issue which led to the breakdown will need to be resolved in some way.”

The agreements with China are an immediate issue, but beyond this Peters has said there was now a need to “reset the government-to-government” relationship after 60 years of free association.

What exactly the New Zealand Government wants to know of the China agreements has not been made explicit, however it is clear that meetings between officials so far have not satisfied requirements.

“There is some little progress, but we want a lot more of it, and we want trust restored, and we want clarity and mitigations,” said Prime Minister Christopher Luxon this week.

“We need to see a recognition from the Cook Islands side that these are real concerns. We want them taken seriously and we want them to be mitigated, ultimately.”

Many agreements between the Cook Islands and China have been published online. But sighting such high-level language has not offered reassurance. It remains unclear if other agreements exist.

In an October 13 letter sent from Peters to Brown, first reported by 1News, the foreign minister said it was “with regret” that the Government had decided to pause a further two tranches of “Public Sector Strengthening and Core Sector Support” payments.

Foreign Minister Winston Peters said the dispute was “not complicated”.

This brought the total of paused funding since the beginning of the dispute to $29.8m.

“We understand that officials continue to discuss risk mitigations [redacted] … as well as the nature of our special constitutional relationship and its implications for the Cook Islands given its free association with New Zealand,” Peters said.

He also indicated there was no response from Brown to a previous letter, written in June 2025. Brown’s office did not respond to a request for comment this week.

Peters this week said the dispute was “not complicated”.

“The reality is we have a special relationship, not between governments, not between foreign ministers, or prime ministers, but between the people of the Cook Islands and the people of New Zealand.

“My constitutional duty is to ensure that that special relationship goes on and that nothing imperils it.

“Any changes to that without consultation, calls into question issues of trust.”

While in February he talked of resetting the realm relationship in light of the dispute, he now said a question about this was “slightly premature”.

“I'm going to make sure at all points that they, the Cook Islands people, are in control of their destiny here. That it’s not taken away from them, by politicians.”

A signal of what New Zealand could seek from the Cook Islands to reshape the relationship came on Thursday evening, when Luxon signed a new “political declaration” with the prime minister of another realm nation, Niue.

Luxon and Prime Minister Dalton Tagelagi signed a statement that included language possibly informed by the experience with the Cook Islands. It committed New Zealand and Niue to the shared objective of “safeguarding the defence and security of the Realm of New Zealand”.

“Niue contributes to the defence and security of the Realm by conducting its affairs consistently with that shared objective, and by reinforcing the distinct yet interconnected security interests of Niue, New Zealand, and the Realm as a whole.

“New Zealand and Niue will not put in place activities, agreements or arrangements with third parties that would compromise their ability to meet any of the commitments contained in this Declaration.”

It appears any such agreement with the Cook Islands could be some time away, if it can be reached at all.

However, Powles said that polling showed the majority of Cook Islanders want the status quo to remain with New Zealand.

“Whereas Brown clearly sees the relationship with China, the relationship with the United States, deep-sea mining, as vehicles for Cook Islands independence,” she said.

There has also been disagreement between Brown and opposition MPs on the China agreements and a number of Brown's initiatives, including a suggestion the Cook Islands should have its own passport which he backed away from earlier this year.

Powles said the New Zealand Government was “potentially” waiting for an election in the Cook Islands.

'The Cook Islands election outcome will be a valuable barometer on the Cook Islands relationship with New Zealand.“

The last time the nearly 9000 voters on the island went to the ballot box was in 2022, meaning an election is due to occur in 2026. Amid news of the funding pause this week, the opposition demanded an early election, according to the Cook Island News.

However, Luxon and Peters would not entertain questions about whether they needed Brown deposed to resolve the dispute with the Cook Islands government.

“That's who we're talking to at the moment,” Peters said, when asked this week.