Labour surges to 38% in new poll - but still needs Te Pāti Māori

Thursday, 13 November 2025

The Labour Party has risen to 38% party vote support in a new poll following its announcement of a capital gains tax (CGT) - the highest it has polled in three years.

But the Talbot Mills/Anacta Poll, obtained by The Post, shows Chris Hipkins would still need Te Pāti Māori to govern - and would not reach Government if the embattled party failed to win any seats.

It showed a general drop for small parties and rise in support for the two major parties, with National firmly back in the 30s after dropping below the 30% mark in the October poll.

For Labour, it is the highest poll rating on this poll since February of 2022, when Labour hit 41%, Jacinda Ardern was still prime minister and the border was yet to be reopened.

The poll was the monthly NZ Insight undertaken by Anacta/Talbot Mills from November 1 to 10 for corporate clients. Anacta/Talbot Mills also conducts Labour’s internal polling.

The party vote polling showed:

• Labour: 38% (+3)

• National: 33% (+4)

• Greens: 9% (-1)

• NZ First: 8% (-4)

• ACT: 7% (-1)

• Te Pāti Māori: 2.4% (-1.2)

Assuming Te Pāti Māori won at least one electorate, these numbers would very narrowly see a Labour-led Government, with Labour at 47 seats, the Greens at 11, and Te Pāti Māori at three, for a total of 61 seats.

If Te Pāti Māori won more seats there would be an overhang but Labour would still lead the Government.

But if Te Pāti Māori was to lose every electorate its vote would be “wasted” and the current coalition parties would return to power.

A separate poll for the Taxpayers’ Union Curia Research Poll released Wednesday suggested that the coalition would narrowly hold onto power. It had Labour on top but on 33.3%, far below 38%.

The two polls are the first undertaken since Labour announced its capital gains tax policy in late October.

Wide support for Labour’s CGT

The poll also included specific questions about Labour’s CGT proposal, finding majority support for it.

Voters were asked a detailed question about the CGT, with the three free doctors visit Labour says it will pay for included.

Over half said they approved of the measure, with 27% said they “strongly” approved of it and 30% saying they “somewhat” approved of it.

20% “strongly” disapproved, 13% “somewhat” disapproved, and 10% were unsure.

Voters were also asked how the CGT policy would impact them personally.

40% said it would make them “better off”, 20% said it would make them “worse off” and 31% said it would make no difference.

Renters were more likely to think the CGT would make them better off.

Slight uptick in economic sentiment

Voters appear to be slightly happier with the economy.

A majority (50%) still said the country was on the “wrong track” - but this was down from 55% in October. 39% said the country was going into the “right direction” - up from 34% in October.

Just 23% said the economic conditions in New Zealand were “good” or “excellent” - up from 18% in October. 76% said economic condition were “poor” or “not so good” - down from 81% in October.

About a quarter of those asked thought the economy would get better in the next year (24%), while 39% thought it would get worse.

Labour expected to form next Government

Asked directly if they thought Labour or National would lead the next Government, 45% said Labour and 36% said National.

Hipkins had a stable lead in the preferred prime ministerial stake, with 26% support to Christopher Luxon’s 22%.

Asked directly who would be a better prime minister between Hipkins and Luxon, 46% said Hipkins and 40% said Luxon.

Just over half (52%) disapproved of the performance of the current Government, while 41% approved.

Asked if the National-led Government “deserve” to be re-elected 37% said yes, down slightly from 38% in July. 50% said it was “time to give some other party a go” - up slightly from 48% in July.