Donald Trump's tariff 'flip-flopping' puts NZ businesses on edge

Monday, 17 November 2025

An economist says US president Donald Trump's flip-flopping on tariffs has New Zealand businesses on edge.

Trump has cancelled tariffs on several US food imports including beef and kiwifruit.

Sense Partners economist John Ballingall said it was good news for a lot of businesses - but many were still finding it hard to relax.

'The [frequent] changes are making life very difficult for our businesses. When businesses are uncertain they tend not to invest or hire people, and the constant flip-flopping is certainly affecting businesses' planning,' he said.

'When the global economic environment is uncertain it can be a bit risky making big investment decisions or hiring a whole bunch of people because you don't know how the market's going to change.'

'Right now the US economy is very hard to predict and that makes long term planning very difficult … They're both nervous and fully expect Trump to change his mind again.'

Trade Minister Todd McClay expected export trade in beef and kiwifruit would return to previous levels, but said the frequently changing rules from the US was challenging for businesses.

'We estimate there's a tariff saving of $300 million but again it is the changing nature that is concerning some of our exporters more at the moment than the tariff rates were,' he told Morning Report. Many would be renegotiating contracts over the next year and the uncertainty would make it more difficult to get the contracts locked in.

Ballingall said Trump's latest reversal could be a sign of things to come.

'I think what we will see over the next few months is that US consumers, and therefore voters, are starting to get very frustrated with the high cost of living and that's what has driven the cancellation of these tariffs,' he said.

'If inflation continues to increase in the US, which most people expect it will do, then it's entirely possible that we could see more tariffs come off.'

The approaching midterms could ramp up that pressure further, he said.

'The fact that US voters are starting to become much more concerned about cost of living issues will be troubling the administration, because the midterm elections are now not that far away and they probably don't want to be going into those elections fighting a cost of living crisis,' Ballingall said.