Greg O’Connor polls strongly as he fights for political survival

Tuesday, 18 November 2025

Wellington mayor hopes to make a difference at the time city needs it

Labour veteran Andrew Little has emerged as Wellington’s most popular politician – but the curveball is former colleague Greg O’Connor’s strong polling, coming just as the Ōhāriu electorate he has held for three terms is set to disappear.

A new Curia poll of 1000 Wellingtonians gives the city’s new mayor a commanding +44% net favourability rating, putting him well ahead of the pack.

But O’Connor also performs strikingly well, ranking third with +21%, behind only Little and Little’s newly minted deputy Ben McNulty (+27%). McNulty secured the highest single number of votes for a ward councillor in last month’s vote.

Both sit comfortably ahead of Green MPs Tamatha Paul (+9%) and Julie Anne Genter (+5%).

It is a notable result for O’Connor, a former cop, whose political future is threatened by sweeping boundary changes.

In August, the independent Representation Commission confirmed boundary changes to electorates ahead of next year's general election. O’Connor’s suburban Wellington seat is to be abolished.

Greg O'Connor has served as Ōhāriu’s local MP since 2017, after more than four decades as a police officer.

Wadestown, Ngaio, Khandallah and Broadmeadows will shift to Wellington Central, Newlands into Hutt South and Johnsonville, Churton Park, Glenside and southern Tawa would join the new Kenepuru electorate, along with northern Tawa.

It’s understood O’Connor has now put his hand up for Labour’s nomination in Wellington Central (now renamed Wellington North), setting up a selection showdown with former Health Minister Ayesha Verrall.

Also in the running are LGBTQIA+ activist Shaneel Lal, who recently volunteered on Little’s mayoralty campaign and Toby Moore, once an senior adviser to former Finance Minister Grant Robertson and a member of Labour’s policy council.

In both 2023, O’Connor removed himself from Labour’s party list, relying on winning Ōhāriu to remain in Parliament. He held the seat against the “blue wave” and a challenge from National’s deputy leader and finance spokesperson Nicola Willis.

“As everyone always says, there's only one poll that matters. But being away from the electoral cycle…I find that really quite reassuring,” O’Connor said.

“It's probably the nicest thing any away from the election cycle that anyone can hear. And I think for the people of Ōhāriu, it's vindication for them electing the last time too.”

O’Connor wouldn’t be drawn on the selection process for next year’s election. “There's these party processes that we are all going so I'm just not in a position to comment on that. I’m respecting that.”

The poll also hints at a broader shift in the capital’s political mood, as Labour attempts to reassert itself in the capital after a period of Green ascendancy.

Labour figures are outpacing their Green counterparts, a contrast to the 2022 local body elections when former chief of staff Tory Whanau seized the mayoralty from front-runner and former MP Paul Eagle and the 2023 race, when the minor party made historic breakthroughs in traditionally safe Labour seats.

Green MPs Tamatha Paul and Julie Anne Genter in Parliament - each having captured long-held Labour seats in Wellington at the 2023 election.

Tamatha Paul captured Wellington Central and Genter took Rongotai, two long-standing Labour strongholds, signalling intensifying competition for the urban, left-leaning vote.

The poll also shows sharp demographic differences.

Little, elected last month, performs strongly across the board, with net favourability of +47 among women and +38 among men, and soaring support among older Wellingtonians (+56 for those over 60 ).

O’Connor also polls well across demographics: +15 with women, +26 with men, and solid support from both younger voters (+14 under 40 ) and older ones (+32 over 60).

By contrast, the two Green MPs show a pronounced age split: Paul is +26 with under-40s but -13 among over-60s, while Genter is +17 with younger voters and -14 with older voters.

Paul also shows a gender gap, sitting +20 with women but -3 with men.

The poll was conducted by Curia as part of an omnibus survey. Pollster David Farrar said he added the Wellington political questions at his own cost “out of personal interest”.

The survey of 1000 Wellingtonians was carried out between November 10 and 14, with 750 phone interviews and 250 from an online panel. The margin of error is ±3.1%.