Uneasy lies the voter: Peters’ kingmaker crown divides opinion

Saturday, 20 December 2025

Seven months ago, Winston Peters drew a line in the sand: if Chris Hipkins remains Labour leader after the 2026 election, New Zealand First will not go into coalition with his party.

But while Peters is setting the rules, voters seem to be wise to his games.

The latest The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll with Infrastructure New Zealand poll suggests that many appear to be betting on history.

Peters delivered Labour into power in 2017 and 2005, and 38% of voters believe he would support a Labour-led government, while less than a quarter (23%) disagree.

Peters’ statement was nuanced – he didn’t rule out Labour outright, only a Labour government under Hipkins – suggesting voters may be reading between the lines of his carefully staged messaging.

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The poll also reveals public unease over Peters’ kingmaker role.

Since the introduction of MMP in 1996, Peters has repeatedly held the balance of power in Parliament.

Each time, he secured ministerial portfolios and policy concessions while frustrating policies he opposed.

After that first MMP election, New Zealand First formed a coalition with National, which lasted about 21 months before Peters was sacked from Cabinet over a disagreement with Prime Minister Jenny Shipley.

Almost a decade later, he secured a confidence and supply agreement with the Labour-led government, allowing him to extract ministerial portfolios. That was despite leader Helen Clark explicitly ruling out an alliance with NZ First at the previous election.

After another decade, Peters again helped Labour into government, taking the deputy prime ministership, only to dramatically fall out with Jacinda Ardern’s government and be dumped from Parliament following Labour’s landslide victory.

This history of dramatic negotiations, high-profile walkouts, and political theatrics has made Peters a household name. But that decisive influence appears to spark widespread voter anxiety.

The 2026 election landscape is already shaping up around Peters’ potential influence.

While his party vote remains modest at 9% in the poll, up three points from election night, that is more than enough to give him balance-of-power leverage in Parliament.

By comparison, both the Greens and ACT sit at 8%, and Te Pāti Māori at 2%, highlighting how a relatively small party can still wield out-sized influence under MMP.

Voters are sharply divided over how comfortable they would be with Peters and NZ First deciding which major party forms government.

Forty-two per cent say they would be uncomfortable, while 33% would be comfortable and 18% remain neutral.

Labour and Green supporters register the highest unease, whereas National and ACT voters are split. Peters’ own supporters overwhelmingly back him.

Polling shows a sharp divide in how voters expect Peters to act.

Among all voters, opinion is almost evenly split between Peters supporting National or supporting Labour, while roughly one in five want him to stay out of government entirely.

Overall, 38% of voters think he would support a Labour-led government, while 23% disagree. NZ First supporters themselves show a strong preference for backing National - 61% favour National, compared with 23% for Labour.

'The polling shows that New Zealanders have seen that Winston can always find a justification for forming a government, regardless of his pre-election statements. They expect him to make his mind after the cards are dealt,“ said Tim Hurdle, Freshwater Strategy’s New Zealand collaborator.

“New Zealand First tends to draw support from both potential Labour and National voters, which makes him pivotal in determining who can get a majority in Parliament. His problem is that in choosing red or blue, he offends one side.”

Hurdle noted that, unusually, NZ First has seen a decline of support while being part of a governing arrangement, often referred to as ‘the curse’ of the minor party in office.

“The Australians say that we hold an election, and then Winston Peters determines the government. Kiwi voters seem to agree,” Hurdle added,

Hipkins told The Post he will not be dictated to by Peters.

“I think a lot of New Zealanders are fed up with Winston Peters holding the country to ransom,” he said,.

He acknowledged the challenges of coalition politics under MMP. “It’s always possible to form a stable government in New Zealand…Politics shifts a lot between now and the vote, and ultimately, it’s the voters who decide the makeup of Parliament. We have to work with whatever the electorate delivers us.”

That’s a shift in Labour’s pre-election stance. In August 2023, Hipkins held a pre-election press conference, alongside then deputy leader Kelvin Davis and president Jill Day, to rule out forming a coalition with NZ First.

He attacked Luxon for not doing the same, and slammed Peters’ party for being “more interested in toilets than the issues that really matter.”

“We’re the only party New Zealand First has managed to complete a full term of Government with, but the rhetoric I’m hearing from Winston Peters in this election means I just don’t see any compatibility with my vision for an inclusive, progressive and prosperous society,” he said at the time.

“Winston Peters and New Zealand First are a force for instability and chaos, and that’s the last thing the country needs right now.'

But Peters had got there first. In November 2022, he made clear he would not align again with Labour, three months before Hipkins assumed the leadership from Ardern.

In May this year, Peters re-iterated his stance, declaring he had ruled out working alongside Hipkins “permanently”. Hipkins hit back saying it was “highly unlikely” he’d overturn his pre-election decision not to enter government with the veteran.

More recently Hipkins has been equivocal. “I'll set out before the election, the parties that we can work with, and the parties where we will really struggle to find common ground,” he told The Post this week.

He pushed back against the idea that Peters’ statements could dictate Labour’s strategy. “I’m not going to let Winston Peters hold the country to ransom. That’s wrong.

“He doesn’t have the level of support or the mandate from New Zealanders to make those kinds of demands. We are focused on delivering a strong, stable government that can actually get things done for people.”

And when asked whether Labour might consider a leadership change to secure Peters’ support, he said: “That’s not a decision for Winston Peters”.

“We won’t be negotiating our leadership based on what one individual says or does. Labour’s focus is on voters and on building a government that can deliver for them.”

Recently cracks have appeared in the governing coalition.

Peters has vowed to campaign on overturning ACT’s Regulatory Standards legislation despite having voted for it, dismissed National’s talk of asset sales as “tawdry and silly,” and scolded his partners for failing to get the economy moving.

He also sparked an unseemly “I versus we” spat with Luxon.

In an interview this week, Hipkins predicted more tensions ahead, saying a campaigning David Seymour and Winston Peters would be a “nightmare” for Luxon to manage in the lead-up to next year’s election.

Despite the tensions, voters appear cautiously optimistic about the coalition’s durability.

Forty percent of New Zealanders agree that the three-party government of National, ACT, and NZ First will make it to the 2026 election, compared with 32% who disagree, while 18% are neutral and 9% are unsure.

Supporters of the coalition parties themselves are more confident.

Among National voters, 76% believe the government will last, with just 10% disagreeing. ACT voters also show strong confidence, at 64% agree versus 12% disagree.

NZ First supporters are slightly more divided, with 48% agreeing the coalition will hold together and 19% dissenting.

By contrast, Labour and Green voters remain sceptical, with 48% and 45% respectively predicting instability, while Te Pāti Māori and other minor party supporters also lean toward doubt.

Peters declined to answer a series of questions from The Post.

Freshwater Strategy interviewed n=1,031 eligible voters in New Zealand, aged 18+ online, between 5-10 December 2025. Margin of Error +/- 3%. Data are weighted to be representative of New Zealand voters.

The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll is funded by Infrastructure NZ to encourage debate about issues that are important to the future of New Zealand.