Luxon’s moment: Why this week could define the election
Sunday, 18 January 2026
Tracy Watkins is editor of The Post and Sunday Star-Times
OPINION: There is a lot riding on Prime Minister Christopher Luxon this week.
His State of the Nation speech in Auckland tomorrow will set the tone for a make or break election year.
Equally critical, with business confidence on the up and an economic turnaround under way, Luxon has a window to reset public opinion on his leadership.
Much like dumped All Blacks coach Scott Robertson, Luxon’s failures have weighed more heavily on the public's mind than his successes.
Like Robertson, that perception may be unfair. Robertson had 20 wins and 7 losses. On paper at least, it’s not a terrible record. But as a nation, our expectations of the All Blacks have always been unrealistic.
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We expect politicians to deliver us wins as well. But in politics, the wins are not as easy to define as a rugby score.
Voters have to be persuaded that things which might look complicated and messy are actually wins. They want confidence in the plan and confidence in the prime minister’s competence to deliver it even - especially - when it means playing the long game.
They also have to trust that they will make the right decisions more often than not.
Luxon has struggled to persuade even his own caucus that he is that person; two years into his prime ministership, there remains a niggling fear that Luxon on the campaign trail could turn into a train wreck. He’s the leader who busts out a TikTok about his Spotify playlist, when what we really want is someone who exudes competence, gravitas and a cool head at a time when the rest of the world looks like a bin fire.
If there was a player review of Luxon’s performance, it would likely be just as scathing as is said to have been the case for Robertson.
Robertson is gone, but the stakes are higher for ousting Prime Ministers. So Luxon remains team captain, despite an increasingly restless caucus.
There is a very good reason for that restlessness; on current polling, a number are likely to lose their seats.
But that polling has been conducted against the backdrop of one of the longest and deepest recessions in recent memory and a cost of living crisis..
Much of this was inherited; Luxon’s mistake, however, was to over-promise and under-deliver on National’s promises to turn things around. And the blame game has only a limited shelf life.
The long-awaited economic recovery seems to be here, however. By every measure, that should be the wind beneath National’s sails.
If Luxon can’t ride the momentum of that recovery it would be a death knell for his leadership.
It would also be a disaster for the campaign.
This election is shaping up as one of the most critical in decades.
As a country, we are finally starting to talk about the things that will shape our country, and our economy, for decades to come.
Long-term infrastructure planning, housing affordability, retirement policy - these are all policies that we have kicked down the road for decades.
Luxon has kicked off the retirement debate by announcing plans to beef up KiwiSaver contributions; Labour will likely one-up that with a plan to make KiwiSaver compulsory.
But both parties need to take the bull by the horns and have a serious debate about lifting the retirement age.
Labour, meanwhile, has finally put a capital gains tax on the table after decades of debate; it’s a proposal that deserves proper scrutiny and debate.
And National’s efforts to radically overhaul environmental and resource management laws should also be up for serious discussion.
The debate over housing intensification in Auckland - which National looks set to backtrack on after a backlash in blue ribbon seats - is just one example of how heated some of these issues will be become.
Even the previously settled question of our place in the world is up for debate as the global order is radically and rapidly reshaped.
What we don’t need is an election campaign dominated by speculation and rumours about leadership.
Luxon might have thought that inheriting a recession and cost of living crisis was hardest test. But he now faces a much harder one: persuading voters that recovery equals competence.
If he can’t, leadership doubts could dominate an election that demands serious, long-term choices.
That would be a tragedy.
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