Christmas coalition talks: Why a late election date is looking likely
Tuesday, 20 January 2026
This column was originally published in October but is republished now as Prime Minister Christopher Luxon prepares to announce this year’s election date, on Wednesday. What’s your bet? Have your say in the comments.
OPINION: As we get deeper into October, a burning issue confronts the humble political reporter.
Are we a “year from the election”? Does the Government have a “year left”? Are we “two thirds of the way through the term?”
This niggling grammatical question is really one that thousands of politically engaged people around the country are starting to ask themselves. When exactly will the election next year be?
It might seem like a small thing, of interest mainly to people who would like to book holidays but can’t. In truth it sets up much of the rhythm of the year in public life, giving a countdown clock for public servants working on anything the Government needs finishing, and gearing up millions of dollars in advertising spend and new hires for campaigns.
In the UK election last year when Rishi Sunak went to the polls fairly early, Labour managed to guess the election date before the Tories actually announced it, and promptly brought up all the important ad space they could.
We have no idea. The last possible day for an election is December 19, 2026, but holding a poll that close to Christmas would be a bigger insult to Kiwi tradition than putting a real onion in onion dip.
That leaves 49 possible Saturdays in 2026 for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon to choose from. Gulp.
Choosing the election date is one of a tiny handful of things the prime minister has complete control over. There is no role for Cabinet. There is no role for coalition partners, or the opposition. Luxon could wake up tomorrow and decide he wants to go to the polls as soon as possible, giving an election date before Christmas this year.
This lack of Cabinet involvement gives the election date decision a kind of mystical power. It generally does not leak. And in close elections, it really does matter - a few weeks more or less of a campaign could make a huge difference in an election as close as 2026 looks set to be.
Despite it being entirely a decision for Luxon, there are a few conventions he will likely follow, which we can use in an attempt to read his mind.
One: Go later in the year. Every election since 2002 has been in September, October, or November, and 2002 was specifically a snap election. Aside from that we haven’t had an election earlier than September 1 since 1987. This leaves us with 13 Saturdays.
Two: Avoid school holidays and public holiday weekends. The Government is currently going to great pains to stop the number of “special votes” next year, meaning it will certainly not want people to be on holiday during the election. This takes out Labour Day weekend’s Saturday on October 24 and three more Saturdays for school holidays in September and early October. Given how much of the vote is done in “advance” now, one can probably remove October 17 too, just as so much of the advance period would happen during school holidays - meaning many parents might be totally checked out of the campaign.
Three: Avoid major All Blacks games, especially at home. We don’t have exact fixtures yet, but we know the All Blacks will be on a tour of South Africa at some point around August and September, and will be in the northern hemisphere in November. [Editor’s note: We now know the All Blacks play three matches in NZ in July, and seven early morning matches in South Africa throughout August and early September. They also play two matches in Australia in October. They have three matches in Scotland, Wales and England in November - but, thanks to the time zone, will be early morning matches on a Sunday.]
Outside of these conventions we can add a specific assumption about this election that almost everyone I talk to in Government or out of it makes: Go late.
The economy currently sucks, a fact the Government is deeply aware of, but one it thinks it can slowly change in the next 12 months as interest rates come down, fast track projects get started, and confidence flows back into the economy. Treasury itself expects GDP growth to really accelerate in the back half of 2026. So why not give yourself as much time as possible to sell that message?
There is a risk of going too late. If the economy remains in the doldrums and the polls worsen it can look like you are desperately clutching at power, allowing Labour to accuse you of squatting in the Beehive.
Which makes an early-mid November date seem the most likely to me - either November 7 or November 14. The Electoral Commission has said it will still take 20 days to deliver final results next year - meaning a wait until November 27 or December 4 for the start of government formation, if it is as close as polls suggest right now.
Which brings us to the final hurdle for Luxon to think through - coalition talks. If he wins with ACT and NZ First as returning partners, new agreements will take some time to work out. And if Labour wins there is no telling how long it could take to get Te Pāti Māori into its first coalition with the party it once split off from.
The talks took 21 days after the final results at the last election. Which offers the prospect of a truly horrible Christmas gift for the country - ongoing coalition talks as we all start to wind down from work. All I want for Christmas is to avoid that.