New poll: Labour leads National, NZ First on the rise

Thursday, 22 January 2026

A new Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll has Labour leading National - but ultimately coalition parties have strengthened their lead.

NZ First is on the rise, with its highest-ever result since the Taxpayers’ Union-Curia polling began in January 2021.

The poll shows Labour gained 2.8 points to 34.4%, while National gained 1.5 points to 31.5%.

NZ First gained 3.8 points to 11.9%, the Greens dropped 3.1 points to 7.7%.

ACT dropped 1.9 points to 7%, while Te Pāti Māori dropped 0.1 points to 3%.

The combined projected seats for the centre-right was up two seats to 63, while the combined seats for the centre-left was down two to 57.

On those numbers, the centre-right bloc could form a government.

Of those asked if the country is headed in the right direction 32.6% say it was, while 49% said it was headed in the wrong direction.

The poll surveyed 1000 New Zealanders by landline or mobile between January 14 and January 18 and had a margin of error of 3.1%.