New poll has NZ First in third place

Tuesday, 27 January 2026

On the preferred prime minister measure, Winston Peters jumped a sizeable 3.7 points to hit 12.6%, his highest result in the series since January 2016.

New Zealand First has climbed into third place in the latest RNZ poll, recording its strongest result in the Reid Research series in more than eight years.

The RNZ-Reid Research poll, published Tuesday, also showed NZ First's Winston Peters leaping up the preferred prime minister ranks, closing the gap on the Labour and National leaders.

The results, if replicated on polling day, would return the coalition government to power with a narrow majority of 61 seats.

Labour remained out in front on 35%, up 0.7 points since September, while National slipped to 31.9%, down 0.6.

NZ First had the biggest bump in support, jumping 1.1 points, to hit 9.8%, its highest result with Reid Research since July 2017.

The Green Party fell 1.3 points to register 9.6%.. ACT was on 7.6%, up 0.4 points.

And Te Pāti Māori continued its slide, falling to 3%, down 1.1 points.

Outside of Parliament, The Opportunity Party picked up support, climbing 0.9 points, to touch 2.3%.

The poll - which ran from 15-22 January - surveyed 1000 eligible voters online with a maximum margin of error of 3.1%. Undecided or non-voters made up 7.2% of those polled.

If those were the results on election day, National would bring in 40 MPs, NZ First 12 and ACT nine.

That would make 61 MPs between the current coalition parties, the slimmest possible majority in a 120-seat Parliament.

On the left, Labour would pick up 43 seats, the Greens 12 and Te Pāti Māori four. Together, that adds up to 59 MPs, not enough to claim power.

If Te Pāti Māori retained all six of its current seats, however, Parliament would have a two-seat overhang, resulting in a 61-61 deadlock.

NZ First's lift in support was mirrored in Peters' personal standing too.

On the preferred prime minister measure, Peters jumped a sizeable 3.7 points to hit 12.6%, his highest result in the series since January 2016.

His surge helped close the gap with the leaders of Labour and National, both of whom took a knock in support.

Labour's Chris Hipkins remained the top choice of voters, receiving the backing of 21.1% of voters, down 1.9 points.

National's Christopher Luxon dropped 0.2 points to 19.4%.

Almost 17% of voters declined to choose a prime ministerial candidate or said they did not know.