Poll: India free trade deal is popular - even with NZ First voters
Friday, 30 January 2026
A new poll shows the free trade deal with India has strong approval with the public, with voters from every party other than Te Pāti Māori approving of it.
The polling comes as Labour mulls whether to support the deal and NZ First ramps up its rhetoric against it.
Trade Minister Todd McClay secured the deal but coalition partner NZ First has used the ‘agree to disagree’ provision in the coalition agreement to vote against it, meaning Labour’s support is needed for it to pass.
NZ First leader Winston Peters says the deal doesn’t get enough access for dairy and gives away too much on immigration.
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The poll from the Taxpayers’ Union and Curia, exclusively obtained by The Post, asked Kiwis if they thought the recently concluded trade deal was “overall good or bad for New Zealand”.
Just over half answered yes (54%), while 17% thought it was bad and 29% were unsure ‒ leading to a net approval rating of +37%.
The support was generally widespread across the political spectrum. Supporters of every political party other than Te Pāti Māori gave the deal a net positive approval rating.
National voters were the most supportive with 67% thinking it was “good” ‒ followed by 62% for ACT, 52% for Labour, 44% for NZ First, 37% for the Greens, and 24% for Te Pāti Māori.
Given substantial portions of every party’s voter base were “unsure” this mean the net approval rating stayed positive for every party other than TPM:
National: +57%
ACT: +49%
Labour: +37%
Greens: +19%
NZ First: +8%
Te Pāti Māori: -15%
Men were more likely to support the trade agreement than women, with +43% net approval for men and +30% for women. Older people and those living in urban areas were also more likely to support the deal.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins said the party was “broadly supportive” of the deal but had written to the Government for some clarification on matters such as migrant exploitation.
“We're broadly supportive of securing a trade agreement with India. We've got a lot of faith in the people who negotiated that deal. They're the same people that negotiated the deals that Labour signed with the European Union and with the UK,” Hipkins said.
Peters told The Post National gave away too much power to the other side when it set itself a deadline of concluding the agreement this term ‒ and then didn’t even use the full time this allowed.
“You’ve just lost your advantage. And then within the timeframe it didn’t happen ‒ it was within two thirds of the timeframe. So you just lost your second advantage,” Peters said.
Despite his opposition, Peters attended an event at the India High Commission on Wednesday to celebrate India’s Republic Day.
“Boosting broad-based relations between India and New Zealand has been an important component of the Government’s foreign policy reset,” Peters said in a post on X.
Commenting on the poll results, Taxpayers’ Union spokesperson Tory Relf said: “A clear majority of voters think the India Free Trade Agreement will be good for New Zealand. With net approval of +37 percent, it is a reminder that Kiwis understand free trade means jobs, growth, and lower prices.
“Support for the India FTA cuts across age groups, regions, and most political parties. Even most New Zealand First voters back the deal, unlike their party leadership which has left National and ACT dependent on Labour votes to get it through Parliament,” he said.
“With nearly one-third of voters still unsure, the Government now has a job to do. If ministers want to lock in public confidence ahead of the election, they need to clearly explain how this agreement will boost incomes and help tackle the cost-of-living crisis.”
The poll of 1000 respondents was conducted from January 14 to January 18. The margin of error is +/- 3.1% at a 95% confidence level.
What does the deal say?
The agreement eliminates and reduces tariffs on 95% of New Zealand’s exports, with almost 57% being duty-free from day one increasing to 82% when fully implemented, with the remaining 13% subject to sharp tariff cuts.
The deal will see India abolish tariffs on sheep meat, wool, coal and most forestry and wood products immediately.
New Zealand will allow 1667 Indians here on three-year, skilled visas per year and highly skilled graduates will be allowed to stay in the country and work longer.
Dairy has had its trade restrictions eased, however it is mostly limited to high-end value-added products and ingredients for export products.
The kiwifruit quota will be set at four times current export volumes and all quota will be tariff free, while out of quota export will be taxed at 50%.
Wine, which currently attracts a 150% tariff, will be slashed to 25% or 50% depending on the price of the wine.