Big choices, small nation: New Zealand’s economic crossroads laid bare ahead of 2026 election

Saturday, 7 February 2026

From superannuation and health funding to trade, security and artificial intelligence, New Zealand’s most pressing economic dilemmas will be put under the spotlight when senior ministers, economists and business leaders gather for the 2026 New Zealand Economics Forum at Waikato University this week.

As New Zealand heads toward a general election amid rising domestic pressures and an increasingly volatile global economy, the country’s biggest policy choices will come into sharp focus at the 2026 New Zealand Economics Forum.

Hosted by University of Waikato’s Management School on February 12-13, the two-day forum at The Pā will bring together leading economists, business figures, public servants and politicians to examine the decisions shaping New Zealand’s long-term economic direction.

Pro Vice-Chancellor of the Waikato Management School Jennifer Kerr says the theme — Big choices for a small nation— reflects the scale and urgency of the challenges confronting the country.

“Our economic landscape is shaped by constrained resources, demographic change, shifting global trade and security dynamics, and long-term fiscal sustainability,” Kerr says.

Finance and Economic Growth Minister Nicola Willis will open the forum with a keynote address outlining the Government’s vision for building a resilient economy, ahead of panel discussions on superannuation sustainability, electoral reform, artificial intelligence, and the balance between trade and national security.

“These decisions do not sit in isolation,” Kerr says. “Choices around fiscal strategy, education, health and innovation interact in complex ways. The forum encourages thought to consider those trade-offs holistically.”

Here’s a snapshot of what panellists will be raising.

Christina Leung: Deputy Chief Executive, New Zealand Economic Institute of Research

With the economy mired in uncertainty through the escalation of tariffs and geopolitical conflict in the global economy, New Zealand faces some stark choices ahead. As a small open economy, recent developments present heightened risks, but also opportunities. There is also uncertainty on the domestic front as the economy recovers from a high inflation environment. We delve into how New Zealand can navigate the volatile conditions ahead as the rules of global engagement are rewritten, including the strategic choices we have to make to ensure resilience and inclusive prosperity.

Paul Spoonley: Distinguished Professor Emeritus, Massey University

With all the social, economic and environmental challenges Aotearoa faces, there are also some meaty demographic issues we need to consider.

How should we plan for – and respond to – rapid ageing, declining fertility, the growing reliance on immigration for both population growth and labour supply, and the fact that we have fast and slow growth (or increasingly population decline) in regions and centres?

The level of demographic disruption will fundamentally change the age distribution of this country with implications for the proportion of the population that is available to work. It will certainly change the cultural diversity so that we become even more superdiverse than we are at the moment. And it means there will be a growing percentage of New Zealanders who will live in the top half of the North Island – and especially in Auckland.

Where are our policy responses to what we know is going to happen with a high degree of certainty over coming decades?

Peter Dunne: Former Leader of United Future Party

The political process has an important role in setting the conditions for economic growth and enhancing social cohesion.

MMP was supposed to encourage increased social cohesion through a more representative and inclusive Parliament, contributing in turn to greater economic stability and certainty.

But is Parliament’s greater diversity now having an unintended opposite effect? Is the wider range of representation weakening social cohesion and making it more difficult for governments to achieve sustainable economic growth?

The challenge for the political process is striking a balance between encouraging diverse political views, promoting social cohesion and ensuring the conditions for sustainable economic growth.

Anna Curzon: Co-Chair B416

New Zealand, like all countries, needs to move quickly to protect the next generation in an increasingly digital economy from a range of well-documented online harms. At the Forum, I’ll be talking about the long-term social and economic consequences of allowing children to grow up in online environments designed to maximise engagement and shareholder ROI rather than wellbeing.

Evidence across education, health and economics increasingly shows that prevention works better than crisis response, and that the costs of inaction are borne disproportionately by young people and families least able to absorb them. As other countries move toward stronger online protections for children, New Zealand must decide whether it leads with evidence and courage, or continues to lag internationally and respond only after harm has occurred.

Sharon Zollner: Chief Economist ANZ

Superannuation is just one of the significant fiscal challenges looming for New Zealand over coming decades, but it is one where policy can move the dial: the retirement age and means testing being two key levers. The longer we put off change, the more painful it will inevitably be, and the harder we will have to go on other unappealing options like cutting services, broadening the tax base and raising overall tax burdens. Intergenerational fairness isn't something New Zealand has excelled in on a number of fronts, most would agree. So just how selfish are we going to be?

Dr Colin Kennedy: Chief Growth Officer Creative HQ

The NCEA reforms rightly prioritise literacy, numeracy and equity. But they're being designed for an economy that's already shifting. Artificial intelligence now underpins productivity, wage growth and firm performance across sectors, yet in New Zealand it remains a Year 13 elective from 2028—signalling AI as optional rather than foundational. Elsewhere, the message is clear. China, Singapore and several US states are embedding AI literacy as core educational infrastructure. The risk isn't simply falling behind. It's that workforce readiness and productivity lag as access to AI capability remains uneven. These reforms may solve longstanding problems while missing the capability most tied to global competitiveness—and to young people's confidence entering work.

Rob Campbell: Chancellor AUT

We have increasing demands on our health services from demography, economy and ecology. Our public health services have not kept up with this and increasingly private responses are being preferred by omission or decision from governments. This creates a deteriorating spiral of services. There is no route within this negative spiral which will deliver equitable and effective health services across the board. We must have a complete rethink of what is needed or accept an Americanisation of health services.

Bryce Davies: IAG New Zealand

The last few weeks have once again tragically highlighted the ever-present risk of natural disasters. But they are not the only risk we face, whether chronic or acute, that have large and long-lasting impacts. We cannot pretend that these risks are unthinkable, unmanageable, or that they come with easy choices. We must be clear-eyed about the outcomes we want and honest about our ability to achieve them. We must overcome the incentives and mindsets that hold us back from proactively dealing with our risks. And we must be intentional, planned, and tireless in our approach to reducing their impacts.

Rosemary Banks: Manaaki New Zealand

New Zealand’s economic security and our national security are indivisible. But for more than seven decades we have prioritized trade and economic security while enjoying geostrategic stability in our immediate region. That epoch is now over.

The question is how we now protect ourselves in a newly hostile geostrategic environment. This will need more effort and investment in all the dimensions of our national security; our social cohesion and resilience at home; the capability and reach of our defence forces, the diversity and quality of our trade and economic relationships.

There is no choice to be made between trade or security, or between the US and China. We need both and must continue to manage each great power relationship with deliberate diplomacy.

Nick Agar: Professor of Ethics, University of Waikato

New Zealanders have a proud history of innovation. We celebrate the number-8-wire mindset: importing tools and refashioning them for our purposes. Social media is different. Rather than us remaking the technology, the technology is remaking us. And if you want to remake humans, it pays to get them young.

Bans are one way to resist this. But Kiwi innovators might instead aim to keep the creativity enabled by social media while punishing its abuses. These are extraordinarily successful businesses built on knowing us in intimate detail. If Meta and Google can target ads, they can protect children. Doing so would require them to surrender some profit—and profit is their deepest love. Our politicians do have a switch that could enforce compliance. The real question is whether they are willing to use it.

Tim Groser: Former NZ Chief Trade Negotiator

‘This is not a transition; this is a rupture’ - Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney, Davos 20 January 2026

All New Zealanders under the age of 80 have lived their entire lives in a unique historical period. For all its shortcomings and more than occasional double standards, that period has been universally labelled ‘the rules-based international order’.

In a speech widely heralded as one of the most consequential political speeches in many years, the Canadian Prime Minister is asserting that ‘order’ is facing a fundamental rupture. Whether we use the folksy language of President Trump brutally reminding President Zelensky in an Oval Office political meltdown of power realities (‘You don’t have the cards’) or Prime Minister Carney’s use of the classical quotation from Thucydides made over two millennia ago – ‘the strong do what they can; the weak suffer what they must’ – the message for a sovereign country of 5 million people with the 52 nd largest GDP in the world is pretty clear.

Claire McLachlan: Pro Vice Chancellor, Education, University of Waikato

I grew up in the era of School Certificate, University Entrance and Bursary examinations. My brother was told that 50% of his School Certificate class would fail and he should decide which group he wanted to be part of. My husband left school at 15 and joined 235 recruits at Devonport Naval Base, alongside many other 16-year-olds who had failed School Certificate. Of those recruits, 180 passed basic training and went on to learn trades through the Navy.

The new Foundation Award in Year 11 will again see students leaving school without formal qualifications if they cannot meet literacy and numeracy requirements. Principals in disadvantaged communities already warn that Māori, Pasifika, second-language learners and students with learning challenges will struggle with the online exam format. For those who stay to Years 12 and 13, a strong academic narrative remains, despite claims of a vocational focus.

We need a system that sets young people up for success at school and in work. A–E grading risks reviving a damaging narrative of failure.

Leonard Hong: Economic Analyst

New Zealand’s net debt-to-GDP ratio of 43% appears moderate, but long-term projections tell a different story. Treasury forecasts suggest government spending could reach 100% of GDP by 2050 and 200% by 2065. Without reform, younger generations will shoulder rising costs to support an aging population - a clear intergenerational imbalance.

Countries like Singapore and Australia have confronted similar challenges with comprehensive, mandatory superannuation systems and sovereign wealth funds. These mechanisms free governments to invest in productive public assets while strengthening fiscal resilience. Singapore’s CPF manages around NZ$850 billion, while Australia’s compulsory superannuation system exceeds NZ$4.5 trillion.

By contrast, New Zealand’s KiwiSaver and the NZ Super Fund, though substantial, lack the scale and coverage to offset growing pension and healthcare costs. To secure long-term fiscal stability, New Zealand should prioritise public asset development and structural reform, following the successful strategies of these international peers.

James Beard: Chief Strategist, The Treasury

We know New Zealand is experiencing more frequent, severe, and complex shocks as geopolitics, climate change, and technology evolve. Past shocks have cost the equivalent of 10% of GDP each decade. Because fiscal policy is often called upon to help buffer the impacts of these shocks, government finances must be sustainable, and debt kept at prudent levels to provide capacity to respond if needed.

Developing greater clarity on roles and responsibilities for planning for, and responding to, events can help manage the risk to finances and improve incentives for those best placed to mitigate risk to act. Beyond this, policy settings that keep our economy flexible and adaptable to change would help us take advantage of any new opportunities from our shifting context.

Lara Greaves: Associate Professor in Politics, University of Victoria

New Zealand has now had the Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) electoral system for 30 years. While there have been many positives from MMP, there has also been criticism of its limitations. Both major reviews of MMP have advocated for lowering the party vote threshold (from 5% to 4% or even 3.5%). Proponents argue that a lower threshold would increase the representation of diverse interests and social groups and give the major parties more options: so the tail is less likely to wag the dog. Ultimately, while not the be-all-and-end-all solution to social cohesion and polarisation, lowering the threshold may help widen participation in our democracy and introduce new ideas.

Rachel Enosa: Establishment Chief Executive, Tātou Collective

“Better than the government”, that's how some might describe how well Tech giants understand us. Why? Because they offer a clear value exchange: data for useful services. As New Zealand faces 'big choices' in 2026, social investment remains critical, but it must evolve. We cannot drive forward while staring into the rear-view mirror of retrospective data. We need factfulness. To achieve generational change, we must stop treating people as statistics and start understanding their lived reality through real-time insights of actual behaviour, preference and choice. Social investment done well creates that opportunity.

Jarrod Gilbert: Sociologist

The economics of the underworld were wonderfully highlighted by the 2011 political decision to clampdown on over-the-counter sales of pseudoephedrine, the primary ingredient in methamphetamine. Meth was a growing problem, and the government believed crimping the precursor chemical would disrupt the market. Demand for the drug was not impacted by the policy, so market forces simply went to work. Instead of manufacturing the drug locally, crooks began to import it. The market was then flooded with meth, and its use in New Zealand skyrocketed. This oversupply brought the street price dramatically down, meaning it’s cheaper to wreak lives and communities. The cost, therefore, has reduced but the price the country is paying marches steadily higher. We need to accept that past policies have failed, and seek to reduce demand for the drug while aggressively targeting the profits of organised criminals.

Paula Lorgelly: Professor of Health Economics, University of Auckland

There is no shortage of big choices facing health in 2026. How much should we spend on health, and what trade-offs are acceptable? If spending increases, which other areas of public investment should contract? Should we raise additional revenue through taxation, or expand the role of private insurance? Beyond the size of the budget, we must decide how best to allocate it: which parts of the system deliver the greatest value, and how should scarce resources be prioritised? We must also confront the right balance between public and private provision. In New Zealand, key realities remain: unclear international spending comparisons, a system focused on treating illness rather than prevention, workforce constraints, and private-sector innovation that must be balanced against the risks of profiteering in healthcare.

The Post is a media partner and proud supporter of the New Zealand economics forum and will be bringing you full coverage online and in print. A full list of speakers and sessions can be found online at https://uow.eventsair.com/nz-economics-forum/