New poll shows hung Parliament as Green Party bolster left bloc
Monday, 9 February 2026
An election held tomorrow would result in a hung Parliament with neither side able to govern, a new poll suggests.
The Taxpayers’ Union/Curia poll for February has every party but the Green Party down or flat on the month prior, with Labour remaining the largest party.
The poll also suggested a surge in voters worried about the cost of living.
Asked how they would cast their party vote, the respondents said:
Labour: 34.1% (down 0.3)
National: 31.3% (down 0.2)
NZ First: 10.5% (down 1.4)
Green: 10.3% (up 2.6)
ACT: 6.7% (down 0.3)
Te Pāti Māori: 2.9% (down 0.1)
Assuming that Te Pāti Māori win an electorate seat but no overhangs are created, these results would see a deadlocked hung Parliament, with each “bloc” of parties winning 60 seats each.
Labour would win 43 seats, the Greens 13, and Te Pāti Māori 4, while National would win 39, NZ First 13, and ACT 8.
But there is still some voters to play for, with 6.8% selecting “undecided” on the party vote question.
This would likely result in a new election given no party would be likely to lead a Government.
The poll was conducted by Curia, who also undertake National’s private polling, for the right wing lobby group the Taxpayers’ Union. It was conducted between February 1 and February 3 and asked 1000 randomly selected Kiwi adults, weighted to the general population.
The poll came following the Prime Minister announcing the election date for November 7 and news that inflation had again risen outside of the target band.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon was ahead of his opponent Chris Hipkins in the preferred prime ministerial stakes, rising 2.5 points to 22%, while Hipkins stayed flat at 18%.
Asked what was the most important issue facing them, about a third of voters selected “Cost of living” - which jumped 7.4 points from the month prior.
Taxpayers' Union Spokesman James Ross said the results showed an incredibly tight election race.
“As we move deeper into election year, the race is neck-and-neck. This poll will serve as a wake-up call for the Government to lift its game.
“The sizeable shift in the seat numbers mostly reflects changes in support for the Greens and New Zealand First since last month.”
'The other big shift is the increase in the number of voters more worried about the cost of living. It's now higher than any time since May 2024. This is significant as it is counter to much of the media commentary about the recovering economy. Clearly people just aren't feeling it yet.'
The margin of error was +/- 3.1%.