How will the Keith Richards of New Zealand politics fare?

Saturday, 21 February 2026

Winston Peters, the ultimate political survivor of New Zealand politics, is in a position he’s not been in before. The question is whether he can capitalise, writes Luke Malpass.

Luke Malpass is the politics, business and economics editor.

OPINION: In the iconic movie Wayne’s World 2, there is a great line in which the band’s road manager, Del Preston, is found sleeping hanging upside-down like a bat.

He explains: “I learned it from Keith Richards when I toured with the Stones. This may be the reason why Keith cannot be killed by conventional methods.”

That quote often comes to mind when I think about the Keith Richards of New Zealand politics: Winston Peters. He too, it seems, cannot be killed by conventional methods.

In fact, far from it. The NZ First leader now finds himself in a position he has not been in during his entire career. And that’s saying something, considering his career spans six separate decades, two electoral systems, three electorate seats and being voted out of Parliament three times — twice as party leader, when the entire party was ejected.

Now he is back, polling above 10% and looking likely to go higher. Regardless of any predictions that can be made before November 7, one thing looks like a sure bet: Winston Peters and NZ First will be in government.

He is now in a position to increase his vote from a position in the Government for the first time. This is a big achievement for any minor party.

So precisely how did this happen, and what next for the party?

The first obvious point is that experience does count in politics. That is why, once upon a time, a person had to be in Parliament for a reasonably long time before they became prime minister. Prior to Christopher Luxon winning the job after only a single term, David Lange and John Key had the equal shortest stints in Parliament — seven and six years respectively — before they became PM. Jacinda Ardern — who suddenly became a rockstar — was three terms into the gig.

Peters has been in Parliament more than 10 times the amount of time his putative boss, Luxon, has.

While he has arguably acted against his own best interests at times during his career, he has seen a lot and makes his calls accordingly. And this time around they are looking good.

On Friday I wrote that his distaste for Chris Hipkins was evident. Less evident — partly because he is in government — is his distaste for Christopher Luxon. It is an open secret that key NZ First figures have little regard for the prime minister or his political skills.

There has not been a time in recent memory when the foreign minister — as opposed to the prime minister — has run foreign policy so thoroughly as in the case of Peters.

Luke Malpass has compared the durability of Winston Peters, 80, to that of legendary Rolling Stones guitarist Keith Richards, right, who is two years older.

Peters has also invoked the agree-to-disagree clause where it mattered. On the India free trade deal, Peters has played a predictable hand. The deal is a good one for New Zealand. The MFAT negotiators have secured more than most people would have thought, but it does mean more Indian immigration in some areas.

Based on what we know, the numbers are not large, and that is no bad thing anyway. But the National Party has found itself playing defence and arguing on Peters’ turf over immigration numbers, rather than making its own case for why it is a good thing.

Peters has a history with free trade deals and wasn’t in favour of this one. It is now a useful election issue for him, regardless of whether it is passed into law before the election.

The times suit NZ First. Reform is dominating UK politics, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is now the main conservative insurgent force in Australian politics, polling at over 20%, and could even supplant the establishment Liberal–National Coalition, which is currently a rabble under a new leader. In the US, the Trump-led MAGA movement, while fractured, is still dictating terms in politics there.

The times are arguably right for an anti-immigration, nationalist party to make a move. The difference, however, between New Zealand and Australia and the UK is that both of those nations have left-of-centre governments and conservative oppositions in disarray. In New Zealand, Peters’ party is part of the Government.

The question now is whether that will act as a cap on its potential popularity.

Based on the most recent The Post–Freshwater Strategy Poll, NZ First is now at 11% of the vote. National has flatlined at 30% (in the 30-32% range in most public polls). In the absence of a Jacinda Ardern-type figure or some big global event, it is very difficult to see how that will move. The fact is that polling does not often change much during an election year.

Voters are grumpy. The cost of living has again risen to be the number one issue for people, and they are unhappy with how the Government is dealing with it, with those polled saying that Labour is best-placed to handle the cost of living.

The question for NZ First is the degree to which it can capitalise on that. Peters is basically the only party leader to have improved his favourability with voters during this term of Government. Given local and global conditions, on paper it should be able to capitalise.

But it is not only a question of capitalising; it is also a question of how the party chooses to play its hand. It has obviously decided to push hard against the notion of more Indian migrants, but the question is the extent to which New Zealand agrees with those sentiments.

There are other areas NZ First will clearly push on over the coming year. Energy is one of them. While the Government announced a new LNG import terminal for New Zealand, NZ First stayed rather quiet on the issue, despite Shane Jones being associate energy minister.

The new terminal is a very reasonable idea. The uptake and spread of renewables in New Zealand will only continue, but firming power — which works regardless of wind, sun or dry years — will be required in the coming years. And it is preferable that that comes from gas rather than burning coal.

But, like everything else, it has to be paid for. And a levy on big energy producers — which will end up being paid by consumers, a tax by any other name — has become the focus of the Government’s plan, not the idea itself. As has the debate over whether it is a tax or a levy.

NZ First will continue to capitalise on that.

Meanwhile, the more general bag of “woke” issues will continue to be grist for the mill for NZ First and continue to set it apart from the major parties.

In this post-Covid world — one in which dissemination through social media dominates retail politics — authenticity is the coin of the realm. And Peters has it, in rhetoric at least.

The fracturing of the global right is clearly reflected in parties and leaders such as Nigel Farage, Pauline Hanson and, most obviously, Donald Trump, who are able to give voice to dissatisfaction with elites. Peters — incredibly, given he has been in Parliament in six separate decades and a part of five different governments — is able to do that too.

And unlike David Seymour’s ACT, NZ First’s positioning means it can grab votes from more places than ACT.

The question for NZ First now is how high it can go. Peters cannot be killed by conventional methods. The question now is whether NZ First can retain discipline — and how powerful Peters will be after November 7.