Andrea Vance: National in turmoil, Christopher Luxon on the brink as party searches for a reset
Friday, 6 March 2026
Andrea Vance is National Affairs Editor for The Post and Sunday Star-Times
OPINION: When Donald Trump fired a strike to take out the Supreme Leader, it probably wasn’t Christopher Luxon he had in mind. But here we are.
Luxon made a pig’s ear of New Zealand’s stance on Iran earlier this week. It’s no wonder National’s support in the latest Curia/Taxpayers’ Union poll has cratered to 28.4%.
The poll was in the field on Monday and Tuesday, as the PM’s bungle played out in the headlines.
Read more:
Christopher Luxon’s Iran problem: Between Trump and the rules-based order
Disastrous number for National in imminent poll puts Christopher Luxon under pressure
As Winston Peters put it, in an uncharacteristically understated way: “It is not good, is it?”
By Thursday evening, once the numbers filtered out, National’s phones were running red hot.
As of Friday afternoon, Luxon was in Auckland, refusing to front publicly but digging in behind the scenes.
Still, insiders are preparing for him to be persuaded to resign rather than be pushed. His confidence has been visibly shaken in the last couple of weeks and he looks increasingly fed up in the job, irritated with media questions.
If he walks, that would solve two problems in one sweep: a highly unpopular figurehead gone, and no internal coup required. It would also settle Peters, currently overseas in Brazil, who does not take kindly to moves made at the top of Government without him.
But the replacement puzzle remains. There is no perfect candidate.
The current frontrunner seems to be Education Minister Erica Stanford: liked by the public, especially parents, and TV-friendly. The consensus is any new leader must be Auckland-based.
She seems the least-worst option, though insiders are openly fretting she could self-destruct within months under pressure.
That makes the choice of deputy crucial. Simeon Brown is arguably one of the most powerful MPs and a natural choice for caucus loyalty, especially among the more conservative faction.
But the alternative being floated is Mark Mitchell. He’s well-liked in his civil defence role as emergency management minister, the surf lifesaver dad you can have a beer with.
Both men would offer support and act as the crucial bridge to caucus, but Mitchell has the edge in public appeal, giving voters a familiar, reassuring face alongside a new leader.
Nicola Willis and Chris Bishop, although among the most high profile ministers, are not seen to be in the running. Bishop missed his chance late last year and lost standing over the Auckland housing intensification debacle. Willis, as deputy and finance minister, is too tied to current failings.
Both are also liberal Wellington MPs, not an attractive choice for a party that needs to win Auckland while keeping its rural spine intact.
National needs any leadership change resolved quickly and cleanly.
Cost of living remains the top concern for voters, and with prices set to surge further amid the Middle East crisis, the government can’t be seen to be distracted by internal ructions.
If Luxon goes, Willis will almost certainly lose the finance portfolio. The party’s economic story just isn’t resonating and as its support bleeds out people are drifting to Labour. Which is remarkable in itself because Chris Hipkins is yet to set out any kind of stall ahead of the election.
Backbenchers are reportedly growing scratchy about campaign planning.
Whispers abound that campaign manager Bishop is showing the same arrogance and stubbornness that caused last month’s Auckland housing u-turn.
This poll means Luxon’s exit may now be inevitable. But National’s real test will come in what, and who, follows.