Politically Correct: Could this be the crisis that makes Christopher Luxon?
Friday, 13 March 2026
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You’ve probably heard that a week is a long time in politics, but the cliche is there for a reason!
Just as last week’s edition went to the email machines in the sky, we were starting to hear that there was a new poll about to be released - one that had National not just under 30 but on a rounded figure of 28%.
The poll from the Taxpayers’ Union and Curia built a head of steam as Friday morning progressed. Many noted that the man most bet on to replace him ‒ Chris Bishop ‒ was taking off to India that morning, meaning he would be in the air during crucial negotiating time should Prime Minister Christopher Luxon live up to the rumours and “consider his position”.
But Luxon did not. In an unscheduled interview with Newstalk ZB he made clear that he was not, in fact, considering resigning, and that his view of National’s long-time pollster was so low that he was actually getting the results analysed in the UK.
Thus ended Luxon’s horrid week ‒ one that had started with him flubbing his lines on the Iran crisis and ended with him delivering lines on a crisis of his own. Was it set to get worse?
Turns out, no.
By Monday the situation in the Middle East was continuing to deteriorate and consequently, Luxon’s travails within the National Party started to fade from the agenda. His MPs were all still asked on their way into Parliament if they backed him (see some more on that below), but by the time he got to answering questions about it at his post-Cabinet press conference he was far more polished, pushing the questions away like the journalists were kids asking if they could have ice cream for dinner rather than schoolyard bullies pestering him.
A crisis can make or unmake governments. In times of trouble, people can naturally worry about any leaps into the unknown. But crises also require leaders who have the verbal dexterity to explain complicated things in ways people trust ‒ something Luxon may struggle with, even as fellow ministers in his Government find it easy. Still, it looked last week like this crisis might unmake Luxon as a leader ‒ as things get worse, could it end up being his moment? We’ll see.
Speaking of crises
Luxon might be happy to have the spotlight moved off his leadership and onto whether we can get enough fuel into the country, but it was fairly clear that all three parties of the coalition were very keen for the media to make a big deal out of the second Covid Royal Commission, released on Tuesday at 1pm.
Media got the inquiry documents on Monday morning and two sets of press releases: the somewhat staid ministerial ones and the ruthless party political ones, which all sought to bring shame on Labour leader Chris Hipkins.
There is certainly a lot to ponder in the Inquiry ‒ and many questions to ask about how decisions were made in the back end of the pandemic. The inquiry noted that the Auckland lockdown probably went on longer than it should have, that advice on teenage vaccination was not properly looked at, but also noted that overall the response was effective. My colleague Luke Malpass argued the report arrived a long time after the country had already moved on, but Winston Peters was certainly keen to keep the issue in the spotlight ‒ asking questions himself in Question Time and attempting to start a select committee inquiry into vaccine injuries.
Carless days or just boatless ones?
As the week went on and the prospect of the Strait of Hormuz reopening receded the question of fuel security became more and more pressing ‒ even if, ironically, we actually had more of it in the country this week than the week before.
The Government created a Ministerial Oversight Group to look at the matter. Associate Energy Minister Shane Jones told me he was looking at what powers he would have to whack BP if they didn’t send us promised fuel. Jones also had a lot of fun reminding reporters over and over again that we would have a bit less of a problem if the last Government had intervened to keep Marsden Point open ‒ although it’s worth noting that Marsden Point only refined imported crude oil.
The actual plan the Government has for this eventuality, created last year but relying on a law from the last Iranian oil crisis many decades ago, envisions not so much carless days as bans on stockpiling gas ‒ with per-customer limits and no jerry cans. So it might be less goodbye to your BMW, more goodbye to your boat. Or lawn mower!
Nicola Willis is eager to assure us that we aren’t there yet ‒ but the Government is getting ready for the possibility that we might.
Best defence of Christopher Luxon’s leadership
This has to go to Takanini MP Rima Nakhle, who turned up to caucus on Tuesday morning with the lovely sign (above) reading: “Luxon is amazing.”
But high marks must also go to junior minister James Meager’s appearance with a giant bag of onions outside Parliament, where he told media the prime minister would lead New Zealand to a “land of milk and honey and produce for everyone”.
Comings and goings
It was Labour’s Peeni Henare’s valedictory speech on Wednesday ahead of his exit from Parliament. Henare had many friends across the House, as was evidenced at his leaving do where at least two National Party ministers showed up, with Tama Potaka even giving a speech.
National’s Shane Reti also announced he wouldn’t be standing for his seat at this election, which opens up another safe National seat to watch for a high-profile candidate (alongside Papakura and Port Waikato). Getting in via the list would be very hard for a new candidate this year ‒ but not through one of these seats. It remains unclear whether Reti will stay in the ministry or be reshuffled, with that reshuffle coming any week now.
Parliament has a teensy little bar called Pints of Order, and its long-time bartender Evan’s last day is today (he can keep his last name out of the news). Farewell Evan!
And is it a coming or a going? Ousted Te Pāti Māori MP Mariameno Kapa-Kingi won her court case to get back into the party, but it now looks like she might not do it.
Reshuffle corner
We might not know about the National reshuffle but Labour unveiled one on Wednesday. Big movers were Vanushi Walters who took the foreign affairs portfolio and Reuben Davidson who picked up economic development. Willow-Jean Prime ‒ who was heavily criticised after failing to accept an invitation on NCEA reform from the Government, and then complaining the Government wasn’t being bipartisan enough ‒ lost education, but gained social development.
You can have a look at all the changes in a snazzy little graphic in this story ‒ hover over for the portfolio shifts.
Question Time psycho-drama of the week – Winston v Gerry
Winston Peters was very upset on Wednesday that Speaker Gerry Brownlee would not allow him to ask questions about the potential legal ramifications of the last Government giving teenagers vaccines, as Brownlee argued again and again that current ministers were not supposed to so directly attack prior ones using Question Time. Peters pushed the point again and again but Brownlee won the day, as he always can, by simply noting that the public could make up their own minds.
Select Committee moment of the week
National backbencher Tim Costley made a very effective attack on Fire and Emergency New Zealand bosses over what appears to be repeated failures at select committee to properly tell him how much of their kit is in a usable state, with verbal answers later rolled back in written questions.
The week ahead
Parliament is in recess next week and the prime minister is in Samoa and Tonga. The Iran war is likely to still be raging ‒ although Peters thinks it could end whenever US President Donald Trump wants it to ‒ and bringing up lots of serious questions for New Zealand. The new ministerial oversight group will meet once more on Wednesday, when we will also get an update on our fuel stocks.
Until next time!