Christopher Luxon heads to Pacific as fuel questions looms
Monday, 16 March 2026
They say a week is a long time in politics. The Agenda sets out the big moves at the Beehive for the next seven days.
ANALYSIS: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon begins a short trip to the Pacific today with the country’s attention focused firmly on fuel.
Luxon’s trip was planned well before the American and Israeli attacks on Iran sparked a conflagration in the Middle East, and reoriented domestic politics around the availability of fuel. He is travelling with a delegation that includes Police Commissioner Richard Chambers and has an agenda focused firmly on transnational crime and the drug trade.
Parliament is in recess this week but it is likely that these questions about availability of our petrol, aviation gas, and diesel supplies will mean you will still see plenty of politicians. It is likely Nicola Willis and Shane Jones, the biggest names on the new Ministerial oversight group for economic security, will hold some kind of press update.
Monday: David Seymour fronts post-cab, Luxon receives honour
With Luxon in Samoa (he arrived Sunday night), David Seymour will be acting prime minister.
Cabinet is still meeting virtually and unlike most recess weeks, a post-cabinet press conference will still be held in the afternoon. Seymour will hold it from Auckland.
It is likely that questions around New Zealand’s availability of fuel and how far along plans for potential rationing are will be a big part of that press conference.
Luxon's will be meeting with Samoa's new Prime Minister La'auli Schmidt, who won last August's election.
The pair already appear to have a somewhat awkward matter to get over. Schmidt told local radio that Luxon had asked - via the High Commissioner to Samoa - for a chiefly “matai” title. This was widely reported but Luxon’s office is adamant that he did not in fact ask for it. The bestowing of such a title is due to happen Monday - and maybe we can get some clarity on how it all came about.
Tuesday: Luxon flies to Tonga
Luxon will fly to Tonga on Tuesday where he will meet Tonga’s new Prime Minister Lord Fakafānua.
Fakafānua was elected in December and is an extended member of the Tongan royal family, who Luxon is also likely to see while in the country.
Wednesday: Fuel and consumer confidence update
The Westpac McDermott Miller Consumer Confidence survey will be released on Wednesday, and will give us an early indicator of how consumers are feeling about things as the Iran War sends petrol prices skyrocketing. It is likely to show a sharp fall in household sentiment after a run of improving reads.
Then the key data point of the week arrives when MBIE updates its website with the government's assessment of New Zealand's fuel stocks as of Sunday night - how many days of supply are held onshore and how many more are on the water.
The update last week showed we actually had more fuel than the week before - about a month in the country and a month on the water on the way.
New Zealand imports 100% of its refined fuel, around 80% of it sourced ultimately from Asian refineries generally fed by crude through the Strait of Hormuz.
Thursday: A GDP release that will immediately feel dated
Stats NZ releases the December quarter GDP figures on Thursday morning. Under normal circumstances this would be the economic story of the week; in the current environment it will be very hard to read that much about the current economy into it, given it all happened prior to the Iran War.
Still, the Government will welcome good news on this front, as a stronger economy going into a crisis is better than a weaker one. KiwiBank economists expects growth to have gone up about 0.3% in the quarter, driven by tourism and widespread gains elsewhere.
But they also noted that the release “couldn’t get any more dated”.
“The outlook for growth ahead has materially darkened as the shock to oil prices has major downside risks to global and Kiwi growth.”