National edges up as Luxon moves past resignation rumours

Wednesday, 18 March 2026

A new poll shows positive signs for National after a previous survey fuelled speculation over whether the Prime Minister would resign.

The latest research produced by Talbot Mills released to corporate clients was polled between March 2 and March 12.

That included the period where Christopher Luxon walked back his comments made regarding the Iran war and the Taxpayers Union Curia Poll which had the National Party at just 28.4% support.

The Talbot Mills poll had National at 32%, up one point from the last poll by the company, and Labour which uses the pollster for its internal research was unchanged on 35%.

Read more:

• Christopher Luxon says he misspoke when saying NZ backed ‘any actions’ to stop Iran

• Chris Hipkins says he considered stepping down in last 24 hours

• Christopher Luxon says he is ‘absolutely not’ considering resigning after horror poll

With regard to the minor parties, New Zealand First was on 11%, a two-point increase, the Green Party were up one point to 11%, ACT was down a point on 7% and Te Pāti Māori were on 1.7%.

Outside of the parties in Parliament, Opportunity (previously The Opportunities Party) was on 2.4%.

If the numbers reflected the votes cast during the election the parties which reflected both the left and right blocs would have 61 seats - which would result in a hung parliament.

However, that would be reliant on Te Pāti Māori having retained four of its electorate seats, if not, the current coalition parties would have a majority.

The polling period did not reflect the time when Labour Leader Chris Hipkins rejected unsubstantiated allegations from his ex-wife.