New poll shows NZ First surging, National still under 30%

Tuesday, 7 April 2026

The new poll from the Taxpayers’ Union and Curia has NZ First surging to 13.6% and the coalition retaining power.

National remains under 30% in the poll, while Labour and the wider left bloc saw a drop in support when compared to the month prior.

The poll, undertaken in the first two days of April, shows:

• Labour: 33.4% (-1)

• National: 29.8% (+1.4)

• NZ First: 13.6% (+3.9)

• ACT: 9% (+1.5)

• Greens: 7.8% (-2.7)

• Te Pāti Māori: 2.6% (-0.6)

5.3% of those asked were undecided on the party vote question.

On these results the coalition would be re-elected, with 65 seats across the coalition - including 17 seats for NZ First.

Curia also undertakes the private polling for the National Party and is run by long-time National Party operative David Farrar.

The last Taxpayers’ Union/Curia poll had National at 28.4%, the worst result since Luxon took over as leader.

It leaked ahead of time and Christoper Luxon ended up doing an unscheduled interview with Newstalk ZB to tamp down on speculation that he was considering resigning.

Since that poll Labour leader Chris Hipkins has faced his own trials as his ex-wife made a series of claims about him in a Facebook post. The claims, which are not criminal in nature, have been denied by Hipkins.

Hipkins took a slight dip in the preferred prime minister stakes but remained on top, falling one point to 21.7%. Luxon was down 0.5 points to 20.5%.

The last poll was also undertaken just days into the war in Iran, before petrol and diesel price spikes got particularly serious in New Zealand.

Since that point the Government has announced a boost to Working For Families of up to $50 a week for lower-income working families but generally rejected calls for more widespread support.

Taxpayers’ Union spokesperson Tory Relf said the poll showed a shift to the Government bloc but with NZ First retaining king-making position.

“Even on these numbers, the ultimate decision on who could form a government rests with New Zealand First. In 2017 it backed the Labour/Green bloc and this poll demonstrates that could still be an option for them later this year,” Relf said.

The poll of 1000 respondents has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1%.