NZ will keep paying the price for the war under Iran's proposed 10-point peace plan
Wednesday, 8 April 2026
While a two-week ceasefire is a welcome development in the Iran war, the implications of the conflict will still be long-lasting and long-reaching.
That’s the warning from international relations expert Robert Patman from Otago University, who has discussed several fish hooks in Iran’s proposed 10-point peace plan - and how they could impact New Zealand - with The Post.
The first relates to international media reports of the Iranian proposal’s clause to impose a US$2 million fee per ship ($3.5m NZD) transiting through the Strait of Hormuz.
“According to this 10-point plan, if that forms part of the ultimate peace settlement, it means that countries getting energy resources and other resources from the Middle East will have to pay Iran and Oman fees for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
“In other words, countries which were not responsible for this attack are having to deal with the financial consequences. It’s great that safe passage [for] our energy and other resources that we get from the Middle East is being freed up but it comes at a cost.”
Read more:
US, Iran agree to two-week ceasefire as Trump seizes diplomatic offramp
The old friendship with Singapore that could keep New Zealand’s fuel flowing
The price of oil plunged in the wake of a conditional ceasefire but whether that translates to lower petrol and diesel prices in New Zealand is yet to be seen.
Patman said if a transit fee was imposed on vessels moving through the Strait of Hormuz the cost would almost certainly be passed onto consumers.
“As far as the United States and Israel is concerned, they've caused tremendous damage within Iran and it's the rest of the world who's basically paying for it because these fees will be used for reconstruction instead of reparations, according to the 10-point plan.
“While most people would want Iran to be able to be in a position to reconstruct their country, it seems incredible that the two countries most responsible for that damage are not being held accountable for it.”
Another fish hook in Iran’s proposed plan was Israel’s role in the conflict, he said.
“Although Mr Trump may agree to this plan, will Israel? [The plan] says ‘end to Israeli strikes in Lebanon’ and ‘end to regional fighting against Iranian allies’. Both those points involve buy-in from the Netanyahu government and it remains to be seen whether those points can be delivered, even if Mr Trump wants to.”
Patman said the fact the US had agreed to a ceasefire indicated the US was willing to seriously consider what Iran had put on the table.
“They wouldn’t bother to have a two week pause in bombing unless they thought there was something that was substantive that they could agree with. They may quibble over the fees but they are tacitly recognising that Iran and Oman, because those territories are contiguous to the Strait of Hormuz, have a right to manage safe passage.”
Finance Minister Nicola Willis, at a media briefing on Wednesday, was cautiously optimistic fuel prices at New Zealand pumps would drop, but that could take at least a week - or longer.
Senior lecturer in Urban Planning at the University of Auckland Timothy Welch said New Zealand had contributed to its own vulnerability in the oil shock.
“There are a lot of things that we could have done to make ourselves much less reliant on fuel and we really haven’t done most of those things, or we’ve worked to take apart the policies that moved us closer to that.”
New Zealand continued to make itself “exceedingly dependent” on oil despite bodies like the International Energy Agency and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recommending governments pull levers to reduce demand.
“It would be a pretty big mistake to dust off our hands and say problem solved. This is going to be an ongoing problem. Even if the issues with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz are resolved fairly quickly, oil imports will continue to be a liability for the country.”
The 10-point plan
Iran's state broadcaster released what it is reporting as the country's 10-point plan:
Complete cessation of the war on Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen
Complete and permanent cessation of the war on Iran with no time limit
Ending all conflicts in the region in their entirety
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz
Establishing a protocol and conditions to ensure freedom and security of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz
Full payment of compensation for reconstruction costs to Iran
Full commitment to lifting sanctions on Iran
Release of Iranian funds and frozen assets held by the United States
Iran fully commits to not seeking possession of any nuclear weapons
Immediate ceasefire takes effect on all fronts immediately upon approval of the above conditions