New poll shows NZ First continues to surge, National still under 30%
Thursday, 16 April 2026
A new poll shows New Zealand First continues to rise in support, with the Coalition Government set for a strong return to power if the results were reflected on election night.
In the latest Talbot Mills corporate poll obtained by The Post, Labour is still the largest party in Parliament on 36%, up 1 point, and National on 29%, down 3 points when compared with the same research from a month earlier.
Talbot Mills is also the pollster for the Labour Party, but its Anacta Insight report is produced for corporate clients.
New Zealand First is on 15%, up 4 points compared with the last poll, while ACT is on 8%, up 1 point.
The Green Party is down 4 points on 7% and Te Pāti Māori is on 2%.
Assuming that all parties that currently hold an electorate seat win at least one, under those results the centre-right bloc would have a majority with National having 36 seats, ACT with 10 and New Zealand First with 19 seats totalling 65 in a Parliament of 120 seats.
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The centre left bloc would have 55 seats, with Labour having 44, Te Pāti Māori having two and the Greens winning 9 seats.
Preferred Prime Minister
The positive news keeps rolling in for New Zealand First leader Winston Peters as he is up two points in the preferred prime minister rankings to 15%.
In fact on this poll, Peters is now nipping at the heels of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon who was down two points at 20%.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins was also down three points since the last poll on 23%.
Green Party leader Chlöe Swarbrick was on 9% while David Seymour was on 7%.
The Iran War
Those polled had deep fears about the ramifications of the conflict between the US and Iran, with 87% either moderately concerned (40%) or very concerned (47%).
Of those surveyed, 64% believed that it was likely 91 octane petrol would reach $5 per litre before the end of this year, while 28% thought it was unlikely and 8% were unsure.
More than half (52%) thought it was likely the conflict between the US and Iran would escalate into World War III, with 38% thinking that was unlikely and 10% unsure.
More than half of those surveyed thought the war would have a big impact on the New Zealand economy and international travel plans.
A total of 48% of people approved of the Government’s response to conflict, 31% disapproved and 22% were unsure.
The mood of the country
Of those polled 49% believed the country was on the wrong track, 39% thought it was going in the right direction and 12% were unsure.
The wrong track figure was up 5 points from the last survey.
On the economic front there was a spike in those believing the economy was going to get worse in the year ahead going from 38% last month to 51% this month.
Those who thought it would get better totalled 19% and 25% believed it would be “much the same”.
The online poll surveyed 1082 people on April 1 and 2.