Two Luxons: confident abroad, constrained at home
Wednesday, 6 May 2026
OPINION | SINGAPORE When Prime Minister Christopher Luxon heads back to New Zealand after a frenetic two-and-a-bit days in Singapore, he will be thrown straight back into the cauldron of Budget season.
A Budget to finalise and National Party fortunes to revive in a coalition with three parties that are now openly posturing to try to win votes off each other.
It will be a scrappy few months. The Government will be working hard to stay together while also growing apart.
The PM’s trip — which he was accompanied on by Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Trade Minister Todd McClay — has, by any measure, been a success.
Read more:
Luxon and Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong clearly share a warmth and a strong personal relationship.
The efforts that both Luxon and Foreign Minister Winston Peters have made on relationships in Southeast Asia have borne fruit here. It is an area of foreign policy that is not bogged down by any coalition disagreements about direction or intent.
“From day one, we just felt that New Zealand had lost some relevance in the world. We were so slow coming out of Covid relative to other countries that all moved on,” Luxon said on Tuesday.
“We have actually tried to make the case for New Zealand. I think we've done that very effectively,” Luxon said, listing off achievements such as the India Free Trade Agreement and the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Singapore.
It has been a torrid few weeks for the prime minister, amid leadership speculation, a proposed motion of no confidence in caucus and, latterly, a dispute with Peters over emails released under the Official Information Act showing that Luxon was keen to have a more pro-US stance at the beginning of the war in Iran.
The Government is also bracing for a lengthened run of sub-par growth, brought about in no small degree by the war in Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Attacks on US vessels in the strait are just another proof point of how febrile the situation now is.
But stepping across to Singapore, Luxon was like a different person.
Over time, all political leaders come to enjoy overseas engagements more than the rough and tumble of domestic politics. Everything is high-level, most people at home broadly agree with what the New Zealand state does overseas, and the politics is more about action and relationships than argument and debate.
So Luxon is not unusual in this regard. But the extent to which he is more comfortable is very obvious. He is in a better mood, clearly more relaxed, and suddenly seems unconcerned that all media questions are a potential trap.
Subsequently, he speaks far more directly and is a far more effective politician. And everyone notices it — from officials to business leaders to journalists. If he could summon some of that domestically, it would help him immensely.
But as with many things in politics, easier said than done. Everyone’s a critic.
Now it is back to the grind. The tough part of the fuel crunch is likely still ahead of the Government, and how it responds will be crucial to its re-election.
This deal with Singapore is another piece of scaffolding on what has been a pretty strong response. How the public rewards that within the Government parties remains to be seen.
But the National Party, at least, will be hoping that a successful trip translates into domestic political capital when Parliament returns and a three-week sitting block runs into what will be the most challenging Budget to put together since the pandemic.