New poll shows drop in support for Labour, NZ First, and ACT

Tuesday, 12 May 2026

Hipkins’ party still leads National - but could not govern.

A new poll from the Taxpayers’ Union and Curia has the Labour Party down but the wider Opposition up.

The poll sees National get back to the 30% mark and would lead to the Coalition retaining Government if repeated on election day.

It showed:

Labour: 31.9% (-1.5 on the month prior)
National: 30% (+0.2)
NZ First: 11.7% (-1.9)
Green: 9.7% (+1.9)
ACT: 6.5% (-2.5)
Te Pāti Māori (TPM): 4.1% (+1.5)
TOP: 2.8% (+0.2)
Undecided: 4.9%

On these numbers, National would return to power with a shrunken caucus 39 MPs, buttressed by 15 NZ First MPs and 8 ACT MPs for a total of 62 seats - one seat over the 61-seat majority needed to govern.

Labour would have 41 seats but would not be able to govern, even with 12 Green MPs and five TPM MPs.

The poll of 1000 Kiwi adults was undertaken between May 3 and May 7 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.

PM ahead in preferred PM

The poll also indicated that Christopher Luxon had overtaken Chris Hipkins in the preferred prime ministerial stakes.

Luxon rose one percentage point to 21.% while Hipkins dropped 2.7 points to 19%.

NZ First leader Winston Peters was down slightly to 11.6%, while Greens co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick was down two points to 5.4%.

Since the last poll was taken Luxon called a confidence vote on himself in his caucus to prove he still had its support, amongst rampant media speculation.

There has also been considerable tension within the coalition with NZ First leader Winston Peters releasing an email that suggested Luxon wanted to back the US invasion of Iran, and leaking part of the Budget.