Budget week is upon us - but the Reserve Bank has a say too
Monday, 25 May 2026
ANALYSIS: The most important week of the Parliamentary calendar has arrived with Finance Minister Nicola Willis due to set out her third Budget on Thursday.
But Treasury won’t be the only major financial institution making headlines this week.
Much of the chunkier “pre-budget announcements” are understood to be finished now but the big day still looms.
Read on for a day-by-day guide to the political week.
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Monday - Post-cab and an immigration announcement
Cabinet will meet on Monday - although Budget decisions are long done by this point.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will then hold his regular post-cabinet press conference that afternoon.
It is likely he will be asked about the potential of a deal to reopen the Hormuz Strait, which both Iran and the US has hinted is close in recent days.
Immigration Minister Erica Stanford is also expected to make an announcement on Monday morning.
Tuesday - Parliament sits, Budget printed
Parliament sits on Tuesday and much of the focus is likely to be on the big two announcements the Government made last week - trimming 8700 public servants and increasing the rent state home tenants pay.
Ahead of Parliament proper at 2pm MPs will make their way into caucus meetings in the morning where they will be asked many questions about the Budget. It is very likely the phrase “two more sleeps” will be uttered.
On Tuesday morning there will also be the traditional photo opportunity with the actual printed Budget - even if we can’t see inside yet. The tagline is “Securing New Zealand’s Future”.
Wednesday - Reserve Bank weighs in
The Reserve Bank will issue its Monetary Policy Statement on Wednesday, making a call on whether to change the Official Cash Rate (OCR) or not.
Economists are generally expecting the bank to hold steady and not raise or lower rates, despite the likely inflation impacts of the Iran War.
Reserve Bank governor Anna Breman has warned of the risk of “unnecessarily stifling the economic recovery,” but has also noted the bank’s willingness to “act decisively” to keep inflation at the 2% mid-point of its target band in the medium term.
Thursday - Budget day
Thursday is Budget day and as always will be a bit of a marathon.
A legion of journalists and economists head into a Budget “lock-up” in the Beehive on during the morning. They will have access to all the documentation from the Budget - which includes any new spending the Government is announcing, any new cuts the Government is announcing, how much all the regular spending that happens is expected to cost in the next fiscal year, and the Treasury’s “economic and fiscal update” - which provides fresh estimates of everything from growth rates to inflation to house prices.
The lock-up will also feature a speech and press conference from Willis, complete with slides explaining her overall strategy for the Budget.
Journalists aren’t allowed to communicate with the outside world at all throughout the lock-up but can prepare stories - a whole load of them. These can all be published at 2pm just as Willis enters the House to make a Budget speech there. Labour will then make speeches in reply and the House will start the long process of actually voting through the entire thing.
Parliament’s original and most crucial role is voting through budgets - called “supply” in the jargon - and the debate will take some time.
Friday - Budget cleanup
The day after the Budget usually features some kind of setpiece breakfast event from the finance minister.
It is likely Labour will also look to make its criticisms of the Budget more clear throughout Friday - and into the weekend.