The Post/Freshwater Strategy Poll: Is 30% now a ceiling for National, rather than a floor?

Monday, 15 June 2026

ANALYSIS: The National Party – and therefore the Government – has had a good few weeks.

Since the near political death experience of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, his performance has improved, the Government has launched a few sizeable initiatives and National's increased attacks on coalition partner NZ First have boosted internal morale.

In line with that, the latest The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll with Infrastructure New Zealand, released today, shows that while the smaller parties continue to move around, the centre-right coalition is likely to be returned.

Assuming all parties that currently hold an electorate seat win at least one again, the coalition would be returned with a narrow majority.

But the problem for National is that there is one thing that seems stubbornly stuck at a similar level on this and a number of other polls: the National Party's own support.

It is stuck at 29% – in fact, down one point from our last poll in February – and it seems that nothing the National Party does is able to move it.

Put another way, it looks like 30% may now be a ceiling for National that must be broken through, rather than a floor from which to build.

The poll showed NZ First up one point to 12% continuing what seems like an inexorable rise. And ACT is up two points to 8%. The free-market party to National and NZ First's right has been creeping upwards in a number of published polls.

The Greens are unchanged, while Labour has fallen from its high-water mark of 38% before Christmas to 35%.

Luxon continues to trail Labour's Chris Hipkins as preferred prime minister, by 37% to 44%, although Luxon has risen three points while Hipkins has fallen two. Neither is 15%, and unsure is 5%. Unlike some other polls, The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll only asks people to choose between those actually vying to be prime minister.

It comes after Nicola Willis held a Sunday afternoon press conference in Parliament, cobbling together a bunch of Labour statements to claim that Labour is facing a budgetary shortfall in the order of $18.2 billion.

The problem is that Labour hasn't actually made a bunch of commitments; it has simply disagreed with many of the Government's cuts without, in many cases, saying what it would do instead. It is, after all, the Opposition.

Clearly frustrated with this state of affairs, Willis tried to flush Labour out and pressure it into saying whether it will or won't support various policies.

Her overall point is generally well made: it is anyone's guess how Labour will – or won't – make the books add up prior to the November election.

But before anyone gets too exercised about what spending gap the Opposition might be facing, it is worth remembering that Willis and the Government have delivered a real one – a Budget deficit – in each year she has been finance minister, and each has been larger than the last. Equally, it is worth remembering that she inherited a structural deficit and an economy in recession.

The point is that there is plenty of cant and hyperbole to go around.

Over the past couple of months, Willis appears to have decided that it is up to her to take the fight to National's political opponents. The problem for her is that the prime minister remains historically unpopular and that it is a war that must be fought on several fronts: against Labour on the left, ACT on the right, and NZ First – well, wherever on the political spectrum NZ First sits.

The problem for the National Party for more than a year now is that voters do not seem to give it credit for any improvements while continuing to blame it for a cruddy economy. And the problem now appears structural, not merely a passing one. It may mean the Government is returned, but in a very different configuration and with significantly changed dynamics.

Barring some big blowout from another party or a scandal somewhere in the system, National's vote looks pretty set. Voters appear to have made up their minds, and at this stage fewer than a third of New Zealanders plan to vote for the country's historical natural party of government.

Freshwater Strategy interviewed 1,038 eligible voters in New Zealand, aged 18 and over, online between June 5 and 11. The margin of error is +/- 3%. Data are weighted to be representative of New Zealand voters.

The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll is funded by Infrastructure NZ to encourage debate about issues that are important to the future of New Zealand.