National gathers as sub‑30 polling shadows party conference
Saturday, 20 June 2026
ANALYSIS: National MPs and officeholders will gather in Lower Hutt this weekend with just 20 weeks to get their polling out of the 20s.
The party is polling the worst it has in Government since the 1990s, hitting 29% in two of the three polls released since the Budget.
These polls suggest a knife-edge election with the left and right blocs very close, but a serious drop in the number of National MPs.
The party’s performance is sure to be a discussion point at the various events throughout its 90th convention over the weekend, which will feature a formal annual general meeting alongside a bevy of forums and speeches.
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The agenda is notably light, with all official events taking place between noon Saturday and noon Sunday, and no official “remit” sessions for members to discuss policy. At the last conference before an election in 2023 there were remit sessions for members to get involved in and two more MP policy sessions.
One National Party insider told The Post they would be “incredibly surprised if anything interesting happened this weekend”.
Despite the low polling the caucus does not appear to have any appetite to roll its leader at present, but the insider suggested there was still concern about making sure that caucus was a reasonable size after the election - Government or not.
If the party has a party vote this low but retains enough electorates prominent faces such as Nicola Willis, Paul Goldsmith, and Chris Bishop could struggle to find their way in on the list.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will take to the stage twice, first to the conference on Saturday afternoon and then to close it on Sunday morning.
The Post understands he will be launching an economic policy in a speech on Sunday.
He and Willis will likely highlight some decent economic news from the week, including a tentative peace deal in the Middle East and 0.8% economic growth in the March quarter.
The finance minister used a speech last weekend to lash Labour on its own economic promises, suggesting there was an $18b “gap” in its fiscal plans, but with a policy document that included a range of policies Labour had not actually committed to. The attack did not gain the head of steam that earlier hits on “fiscal holes” in other elections have.
Willis will give a keynote speech on the economy on Saturday before chairing a forum on “growing jobs and incomes” with fellow Cabinet heavyweights Bishop, Louise Upston, and Todd McClay.
This will be followed by a forum on “Fixing the Basics and Building the Future in Health and Education” chaired by Matt Doocey and featuring Simeon Brown, Erica Stanford, and Penny Simmonds.
Party President Sylvia Wood will also give an update on Saturday afternoon. The party’s out-of-Parliament leadership has certainly been hard at work gathering donations, with the party easily outraising every other last year, and bringing in almost treble what Labour did.
Sunday will bring more of a focus to the campaign that money will fund, with a “roll call” of all of the party’s election candidates.
National traditionally stands candidates in every one of the 65 general electorates but not in the seven Māori seats, so it will be a crowded stage.
Campaign chair Brown, who was given the job from Bishop earlier this year, will address the gathered members on the actual plan to win the November 7 election.