The public are far from convinced that AI will save the public service

Wednesday, 24 June 2026

The public are wary on the Government’s push to reduce public servant numbers by using AI - but they do think there are too many departments.

In its Budget the Government signalled cuts across the public sector, including cumulative baseline cuts of 12% for many departments over three years and the loss of 8700 public service jobs.

It suggested that those cuts would be possible without removing frontline workers or harming services, due to efficiencies made possible by AI and centralising services.

New polling from The Post/Freshwater Strategy with Infrastructure NZ found a clear majority of voters (58%) agreed there were too many Government departments, with 25% thinking there was the right amount, 10% too few, and 7% unsure.

Read more:

• Budget 2026: Where might the public service cuts fall? The big and small ministries facing the knife

• Can the Government digitise its way to a smaller public service?

Attitudes were more divided on the wider project however.

When voters were asked specifically about the Government’s plan to reduce the public service by 8700 staff, 26% backed that figure, while 14% wanted the public service shrunk more.

Thirty-five per cent thought the size of the public service should stay about the same, while 15% thought it should be increased.

That meant overall about 50% of voters backed either the same amount of public servants or more, while 40% wanted fewer. Ten per cent were unsure.

The results were unsurprisingly split by party lines, with National and ACT voters strongly backing cuts, while 69% of Labour voters wanted the numbers kept the same or increased. NZ First voters were more evenly split, with 36% wanting fewer and 35% wanting more or about the same, and 19% unsure.

Younger people backed more public servants while older people backed cuts. Those making under $70,000 were most in favour of cuts.

But what about AI?

Voters were also divided about the use of AI in the public service.

Asked specifically about the Government’s plans to use AI to increase automation and reduce headcount, those who opposed the plan (41%) outnumbered its supporters (34%).

Those who opposed were also more committed - 23% were strongly opposed to the plan while just 9% were strongly in support.

Women were far likelier to oppose the plan than men. Only National voters saw majority support, with supporters of every other party more likely to oppose the measure than support it.

Two thirds of voters were worried how AI and public services would interact, with 66% agreeing with the statement “I am concerned AI will reduce the quality of public services and put personal information at risk”.

Around four in 10 (41)% backed the statement “Embracing AI in the public service is a sensible way to reduce government spending”, while 29% disagreed.

And Kiwis generally doubted the clarity of the Government’s plan. When asked if they agreed with the statement “I am confident the Government has a clear plan for how it will use AI” just 24% agreed, compared to 42% disagreeing.

Just 31% agreed that “Using AI to reduce the number of public service jobs would be a good thing” while 44% disagreed.

How much of the headcount cuts will come from AI?

Public Service Minister Paul Goldsmith was reluctant to put a number on how many of the headcount cuts would come from AI when asked on his way out of select committee.

“We haven't determined that. There are a number of factors that we're going to be looking at in terms of reducing the overall headcount, and the use of technology is one of those.”

He did not promise any specific investment in AI outside of moving existing IT spend.

“Across the public sector, we already currently spend, you know, many hundreds of billions of dollars - billions of dollars - on technology providers, and what we spend on will change over time as the technology changes, and everybody needs to ensure that the money spent is effective, and so it's no different.”

According to a Cabinet paper from 2025, the Government has an estimated $13 billion pipeline of IT investment over the next five years, although much of this is unfunded.

Public Service Commission chief executive Sir Brian Roche said it was still “early days” for AI in the public service when asked if staff were using basic tools like CoPilot or more expensive tools like Claude Code.

“We are not at the expensive end yet. This is still early days for us, but I think it's inevitable that we will have to address those issues, and we will.”

Roche said the fiscal situation in the country made it necessary for the public service to change.

“The fiscal situation the country is in is demanding and requiring the public service to make adjustments. I feel that's entirely appropriate. The chief executives feel that's entirely appropriate, and that's what we're going to do. We've now got a target, and we'll do our best to meet it.”