China’s 7000km nuclear missile test: Calculated or coincidence?
Wednesday, 8 July 2026
A ballistic missile hurtling over the South Pacific on Monday more likely reflects China’s growing military confidence than any specific warning about Australia’s new defence pact with Fiji - and was probably planned well in advance, says a defence expert.
China launched the nuclear-capable missile from a submarine just hours after Australia and Fiji struck a landmark military pact that committed each country to come to the other’s aid if either is attacked.
The missile travelled about 7000 kilometres over the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), Nauru and Kiribati, though it remains unclear exactly where it landed, The Post understands.
“These tests, it’s not like you just think, ‘Oh let’s fire off a missile in the next few hours … these are planned months in advance,” international relations expert David Capie said on the timing.
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“You’ve got to put a submarine to sea with the right kind of missiles. China has some of its space tracking ships in the South Pacific to help record the information it wants from the test. I don’t see it as connected to the Australia-Fiji agreement at all.”
The submarine-launched test follows a land-based one in 2024. Prior to that, China had not launched any long-range missiles for 40 years.
“It’s significant, and obviously for New Zealand and countries in the Pacific this is deeply concerning,” Capie said.
“We don’t want to see the South Pacific becoming a splashdown zone for China’s nuclear-capable ballistic missiles.”
China has pushed back against the criticism of Monday’s launch, saying the activity was consistent with international law.
“The whole process was safe, standard and professional. We hope relevant countries will not read too much into it,” China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said.
While most smaller Pacific nations - bar the Solomon Islands - had not issued statements at the time of writing, The Post understands they are in background talks with New Zealand and Australia.
This consultation could pave the way for the Pacific Islands Forum - the primary political grouping for the Oceania region - to issue a statement on behalf of all 18 members.
Capie said there were practical reasons for why China would have launched the missile in the direction it did and not elsewhere.
“What it's done in the past with a lot of its tests is it's done them within its own borders and to do that it basically has to have a kind of lofted trajectory … you fire it up steeper and it comes down in a shorter distance.
“That has the advantage in that you don’t happen to ruffle feathers internationally but if you want to test it in a more likely realistic scenario you want it to fly the distance it’s actually got to fly.
“I think this missile actually flew over parts of the northern Philippines but by and large it was not flying over the territory of its neighbours, and landed in the ocean.”
Monday’s missile had a technical purpose, he said.
“This is possibly a demonstration of a new submarine launch ballistic missile, a JL3. Sometimes when you’re wanting to deploy a new weapon you want to obviously test it in a scenario that would be how it would be used in wartime. So it allows China to collect a whole lot of telemetry and other information from this kind of test.”
Capie said it also had a deeper meaning.
“These things are not done without some thought about purpose and I think here the signalling is not towards the Pacific or towards New Zealand and Australia but it’s much more towards the United States.
“It’s a demonstration of increasing self-confidence on the part of China about having a larger and more capable nuclear deterrent and really signalling to the US that in a conflict it has the ability to hold US cities … that they could be prospective targets.”
US Department of State spokesperson Tommy Pigott said that at a time when the US was working harder than ever to prevent nuclear proliferation, China was doing the opposite.
“Beijing’s rapid and opaque nuclear weapons build-up is of great concern to the region and the world.
“We continue to urge China to engage in meaningful arms control discussions and commit to a regularised notification arrangement for all intercontinental-range ballistic missile and space launches consistent with commitments made by all other P5 members.”
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters will have a chance to speak to Japan’s foreign affairs and defence ministers in Tokyo on Friday.
Peters has been abroad in Singapore and Japan on a trade-focused mission, though the missile test will no doubt be discussed in these ministerial meetings.
The oreign affairs minister is also set to have lunch with Pacific Island Forum member ambassadors to Japan on Saturday, giving him another chance to discuss the missile with affected nations.