Editorial: Revolutionary Guard outplays US President Donald Trump in the Gulf

Tuesday, 14 July 2026

A cleric checks his cell phone on stage in front of a screen displaying portraits of the late Iranian revolutionary founder Ayatollah Khomeini, left, late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, middle, and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, during a pro-government gathering in Tehran on Sunday/

EDITORIAL: When the president of the United States, Donald Trump, launched his ill-defined lawnmowing-cum-regime-change attack on Iran in late February, it was not expected to end – or not end – like this.

The US is once again bombing Iran after the world’s strongest navy proved unable to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or guarantee safe passage for ships trapped there. Ever since the birth of the Islamic Republic, there has been one overriding assumption about any attempt to overthrow the regime: that it could close the Strait, a crucial trade corridor through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes.

Mourners attend funeral prayers for the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and members of his family at the Holy Jamkaran Mosque in Qom, Iran, last week.

That assumption had hitherto not been tested. Would the Iranian Government really pull that rather large trigger and halt freedom of navigation through its near waters? The answer, it turns out, has been a resounding yes. Not only has Iran proven adept at attacking ships with cheap drones and small, heavily armed vessels, it has also laid mines throughout the Strait. Explicit talk of regime change gave way months ago to on-again, off-again bombing, ceasefires and peace talks.

President Donald Trump speaks during a Cabinet meeting at the White House as Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth looks on.

The problem now appears intractable. On the one hand, the Iranian regime can clearly not be trusted. Since 1979, it has shown no compunction about lying to advance its objectives. The regime's founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, denied his revolution would lead to a repressive theocracy. Deception has remained a defining feature of the Islamic Republic, not least over its nuclear ambitions.

Worsening the current situation is that Mr Trump is also a serial liar. He came into office promising no more foreign entanglements, yet this year has shown a taste for them while routinely threatening action against Iran without always following through. He is capricious and dedicated to “winning”, however defined. His sudden swings must make it as difficult for Iran’s current Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, assuming he is in control or even alive, to make sense of the US’s intentions as it has been for US policymakers to make sense of Iran’s.

One thing, however, is clear: these are not two sides with similar incentives. Mr Trump’s objective is to end the conflict and reopen the Strait. One of the major achievements of the Bush and Obama administrations was making the US effectively energy independent through fracking. Yet global markets still determine oil prices. While West Texas Intermediate has remained cheaper than Brent crude throughout the crisis, higher global prices still carry significant domestic political consequences.

Iran's incentive is much simpler: preserving the regime and the lives of its leaders. Since the conflict began, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which in practice sits atop the Iranian state and serves as the guardian and exporter of the Islamic revolution, appears to have become more powerful, not less.

Western policymakers often discount religious motivations, particularly in the Middle East. But religion matters. A particular interpretation of Islam, advanced through terror, proxy forces and armed coercion, has long animated the IRGC.

Put simply, the Iranian regime is operating with a near infinitely deeper sense of existential conviction than the more mercurial, poll-chasing Mr Trump.

Meanwhile, the jockish US Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, unhelpfully posted on X: “Iran made a poor choice. Now they pay.” Given his boss’s unpredictability, can anyone rely on that publicly stated position? Tehran has also warned Gulf states against assisting the United States.

Clearly, the best outcome would be for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen and trade to resume. But that has seemed unlikely since shortly after the war began. Iran possesses significant leverage and, from its perspective, surrendering it would be madness. That is doubly true given US peace talks continue to centre on Tehran's nuclear programme. Acquiring a nuclear weapon has long been viewed by the regime as an imperative and guarantor of its survival. For those who sympathise with that view, the case has only been reinforced.

Instead, the US has been drawn back into another hot war with Iran, bringing less global stability and higher oil and fuel prices.

This has been a shambolic exercise from start to finish – a fiasco for the US, Israel and, indeed, basically everyone except Iran, which has in this case been the victim of attack and still looks likely to emerge stronger than ever.