New poll shows coalition victory - but Opportunity close to upending it all
Friday, 24 July 2026
A third poll has shown the Opportunity party flirting with the 5% threshold - and with it the kingmaker position to form the next Government.
The July poll from Labour’s pollster Talbot Mills/Anacta, conducted not for the party but for its corporate clients, has generally strong results for the coalition and weak results for the left bloc, with a large drop for the Green Party.
It showed:
Labour: 33% (-1 percentage point on the month prior)
National: 31% (+2)
NZ First: 12%
Green Party: 9% (-4)
ACT: 7% (+1)
Opportunity: 4.7% (+1.4)
Te Pāti Māori: 3%
If these exact numbers were repeated at the election, assuming Te Pāti Māori (TPM) won at least one electorate, the coalition would be returned with 39 seats for National, 15 seats for NZ First, and 9 seats for ACT adding up to a 63-seat majority.
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But if Opportunity were to creep across 5% neither bloc would be able to govern without them. The coalition would be reduced to 59 seats and the left bloc 55. Opportunity’s six seats would allow it to form a Government with either side - although its majority with the left bloc would be very narrow. If Opportunity were to win an electorate it would also keep either bloc from power without it.
The poll was undertaken across July 10 to 19, and had a margin of error of 3.1%.
It took in Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to New Zealand on July 10 and 11, suggesting National did see some gain from the foreign policy coup.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon edged out Labour leader Chris Hipkins to take the preferred PM crown - the first time he has led in this poll in a year. He had 22% support to Hipkins’ 21%. Winston Peters was at 12%, down from a high of 17% in May.
The Government had an overall improvement in performance - with 44% approving of its performance (up 5 percentage points) compared with 48% disapproving.
Opportunity voters prefer Labour
The poll had some detailed questions for Opportunity voters, and about them.
Across the last two polls the pollster found that Opportunity’s support skewed towards men, homeowners, and older voters - but it was not tied strongly to any one demographic.
Opportunity voters had voted for parties from either bloc at a reasonably similar rate in 2023, the pollsters said.
Twenty-three per cent had voted for National, 21% for Opportunity, 18% for Labour, 11% for NZ First, 9% for the Greens, 6% for ACT, and 5% for TPM.
Asked if they would prefer Opportunity to support a Labour-led Government or National-led one, 45% said Labour and 15% said National - a huge gap.
Voters were sceptical about Opportunity making the 5% threshold that allows entry to Parliament. Just 8% thought it was “very likely” while 26% thought it was “somewhat likely. Conversely, 25% thought it was ”very unlikely“ and 24% thought it was ”somewhat unlikely“ - with the remaining 17% unsure.
Younger voters were more optimistic about Opportunity’s chances.
The RNZ/Reid Research and TVNZ/Verian poll both showed Opportunity at a similar level of support in recent weeks.