Finals flurry: Unpacking Super Rugby Pacific’s last-round scramble

Tuesday, 27 May 2025

ANALYSIS: It’s last-chance saloon time in Super Rugby Pacific.

After 15 weeks of jostling for position, this weekend’s final-round will be the clincher to determine who finishes where for the playoffs.

Indeed, none of the 11 teams are locked into their current positions, so with five games left, there is the potential for more movement yet, with eight sides remaining alive, and three hoping to avoid the wooden spoon.

So, ahead of the all-important final-round, here’s how your team stands and what their equation looks like.

Note: If teams finish equal on points, the first tiebreaker is ‘most wins’, then points differential.

Playoffs format

Qualifying finals: 1 v 6, 2 v 5, 3 v 4.

Semifinals: Three qualifying final winners plus highest-ranked loser. Teams re-ranked (lucky loser drops one seed) to have 1 v 4 and 2 v 3.

Final (June 21): Top-ranked semifinal winner hosts other semifinal winner.

The Chiefs had plenty to smile about in Saturday night’s dismantling of Moana Pasifika. Now top spot is in their grasp.

TUSSLE FOR THE TOP

1st: Chiefs (46 points, 10 wins, +214 points difference)

Last round: Highlanders (a)

Best possible finish: 1st

Worst possible finish: 2nd

The equation is simple for Clayton McMillan’s men: win in Dunedin against the bottom-placed Highlanders on Friday night and top seeding is theirs (barring the virtually impossible − more on that below).

That No 1 berth this year not only comes with home advantage through the playoffs, but also the safety net of a guaranteed ‘lucky loser’ spot, should they trip up in their qualifying final.

That would see the top seed still get to host a home semifinal, after dropping one ranking place when the teams are re-ranked for the semis (though not being assured home advantage for the decider if they advance).

2nd: Crusaders (45, 10, +98)

Last round: Brumbies (a)

Best possible finish: 1st

Worst possible finish: 3rd

The red and blacks play in Canberra just after the Highlanders v Chiefs match, and will be willing on their South Island counterparts in order to keep themselves in with a shot at top spot.

A draw (after Super Point) could also do a job, but if the Chiefs win with a bonus point it’s game over and even without a bonus point it means the Crusaders would need a bonus-point win by at least 117 points, such is the teams’ whopping discrepancy in points differential.

3rd: Brumbies (43, 9, +89)

Last round: Crusaders (h)

Best possible finish: 1st

Worst possible finish: 3rd

Stephen Larkham’s side are the other team locked into the top three and guaranteed a home qualifying final, and like the Crusaders, they will cheer on the Highlanders to give them a chance of claiming top spot.

Ruben Love will look to steer the Hurricanes to fourth spot on the ladder, which could come with a handy perk.

Having one win fewer than the Chiefs (and Crusaders), they can’t afford to finish level on points, meaning if the Chiefs attained a losing bonus point, the Brumbies would need a bonus-point win to leapfrog them.

FIGHT FOR FOURTH

4th: Hurricanes (34, 7, +54)

Last round: Moana Pasifika (h)

Best possible finish: 4th

Worst possible finish: 5th

In similar fashion to last year’s final round, there was a clear top three and then a gap back to fourth. This year it’s a whopping nine points.

But don’t think the Hurricanes will entertain the thought of resting players against Moana Pasifika in Wellington on Saturday night, as they will be fighting for what could be a valuable fourth placing.

That’s the lowest possible position on the ladder that a team could be a ‘lucky loser’ in the qualifying finals.

A bonus-point win against Moana would secure fourth, while even a victory without the bonus could well be enough (see below).

5th: Reds (33, 7, +9)

Last round: Fijian Drua (h)

Best possible finish: 4th

Worst possible finish: 6th

The last team locked into the playoffs, but like the Hurricanes, playing for that potentially valuable fourth place.

Ardie Savea and Moana Pasifika will need to quickly recover from their record defeat as they hunt an historic first playoffs appearance.

Facing the Fijian Drua in Brisbane in the final game of the regular season just after the Hurricanes play, the Queenslanders will know if they are still a shot at moving up a spot.

They essentially have to hope the Canes don’t triumph, because even if Clark Laidlaw’s outfit win without a bonus point, the Reds’ inferior points differential means they’ll need to beat the Drua by, even at this point, 46 points.

SUDDEN-DEATH FOR SIXTH

6th: Moana Pasifika (28, 6, -87)

Last round: Hurricanes (a)

Best possible finish: 5th

Worst possible finish: 8th

Here’s where things get real make-or-break, with three teams battling it out for the last playoffs berth.

Moana Pasifika, hunting a maiden finals appearance, and coming off their record-breaking 85-7 dismantling at the hands of the Chiefs, will know exactly what they have to do, as they play after the Blues v Waratahs clash on Saturday night.

Any which way, Tana Umaga’s team will need to knock over the Hurricanes. But if the Blues were to collect five points against the Tahs, Moana will have to match them, which would then see them advance by virtue of having one more win than their Auckland adversaries.

7th: Blues (28, 5, +7)

Last round: Waratahs (h)

Best possible finish: 6th

Worst possible finish: 8th

The struggling defending champions are the only team who can make the playoffs with a losing record (6-8), thanks to their whopping eight bonus points (the most-equal in the competition, with the Highlanders).

Coming off the bye, Vern Cotter’s unit need at least a draw (after Super Point) or win against the Waratahs at Eden Park on Saturday evening, but even then will still be at the mercy of Moana.

8th: Waratahs (26, 6, -94)

Last round: Blues (a)

Best possible finish: 6th

Worst possible finish: 8th

After keeping their season alive in the most dramatic of fashions, with a try in the dying seconds of Super Point against the Force in Perth, last year’s wooden-spooners will now have to overcome a decent slice of history to go another week.

That’s because the Sydneysiders have lost their last 10 against the Blues and have only once ever won in Auckland (2009), in their 15 attempts.

Should they do the business, they will also be left cheering on a Hurricanes win (or draw) against Moana to get them through.

BATTLE AT THE BOTTOM

9th: Force (23, 4, -114)

Last round: Bye

Best possible finish: 9th

Worst possible finish: 11th

10th: Fijian Drua (20, 4, -103)

Last round: Reds (a)

Best possible finish: 9th

Worst possible finish: 11th

11th: Highlanders (20, 3, -73)

Last round: Chiefs (h)

Best possible finish: 9th

Worst possible finish: 11th