Assessing the All Blacks: What a three-defeat season means for Scott Robertson
Tuesday, 25 November 2025
ANALYSIS: It’s hard to escape the feeling that Scott Robertson has spent the first two years of his All Blacks coaching gig at best treading water, and maybe even sinking a little below the surface. Signs of legitimate progress have been decidedly thin on the ground.
The All Blacks signed off on their 2025 season at the weekend with a 52-26 victory over an historically inept Wales side in Cardiff, taking their record for the year to 10-3, following a 10-4 campaign in ‘24.
These are far from eye-wateringly bad numbers, and records most nations would snatch your hand off grabbing. Just not New Zealand.
Seven defeats over a two-year span matches the 2022-23 record of Ian Foster, the embittered previous coach who was just 80 minutes from losing his job in Johannesburg, and the same number from winning the World Cup in Paris.
So, not awful, but neither heart-warmingly good. When things are rolling nicely for the All Blacks, one or two defeats a year is the norm, and Grand Slams and Rugby Championships do not prove beyond them.
Digging deeper on those numbers, factoring in just matches involving the top six nations in the world, Robertson’s record is a distinctly less flattering 11-7. That’s a 61% hit-rate against sides you wouldn’t describe as roadkill.
Clearly there is work still to do at the halfway point of the World Cup cycle. And as much as the coach continues to highlight the “small margins” and “big moments” that have tripped up his team, the reality is the All Blacks don’t look World Cup winners at this stage of the race.
They are some way off the standard of the all-conquering South Africans, to whom they have lost three of four under Robertson, and appear entrenched in a competitive battle alongside England, France, Ireland and Argentina.
Robertson, as is his wont, is steadfastly positive. He talks about using 45 players in ‘25, about overcoming the defection of an historically significant layer of experience after ‘23, about growing valuable options as part of his Project Four-Deep concept and about making real progress with a group he believes is finding its identity.
“We feel we’ve turned a corner,” he declared after a northern tour lowlighted by the decisive 33-19 defeat to England at Twickenham. “We gave 45 guys an opportunity this year to build competition and depth, and give guys exposure to win a World Cup. It’s been a hell of a year, and an interesting year.”
It will not get any easier next year, with four tests against the Boks on the ‘greatest rivalry’ tour and then the Nations Championship debut which sees France, Italy and Ireland visit in July, and Scotland, Wales and England host the New Zealanders in November.
“Everyone else is coming for us,” noted Robertson. “If you want to be the best in the world, you’ve got to keep playing them, you’ve got to bring guys through, and you’ve got to challenge them along the way.”
Here then are five big questions facing Robertson at the end of year two:
Is it time to go all-in on Richie Mo’unga?
You bet. Robertson should be lobbying David Kirk now to have the returning No 10 fast-tracked for the Boks tour.
As much as Beauden Barrett has been an outstanding long-term All Black, it was hard to escape the feeling after Twickenham the unavoidable decline had set in. And Damian McKenzie, as useful as he is off the bench, has been given plenty of chances to prove himself as a starting 10, and mostly come up short.
Robertson needs a refreshed and revitalised Mo’unga, on top of his game, running the show to have any chance of taking the All Blacks where he hopes to. That is clearer now than it ever has been.
What should he do to the coaching group?
After losing his second assistant (Jason Holland), Robertson has a vacancy to fill. He says he’ll take time now to figure out who and what that needs to be.
Clearly there is a chemistry issue in play, with both Holland and Leon MacDonald assuredly unhappy with the dynamic. So thought needs to be given around who works best alongside Robertson, Jason Ryan and Scott Hansen – all quite different personalities.
Robertson could do with a strong, straight-speaking type who might help him with some of the messaging and communication stuff. It’s not his strong suit. If that person could sharpen the All Blacks attack, even better. Pity Tony Brown is otherwise employed.
What are the problem positions?
Aside from 10, where they desperately need Mo’unga’s class and vision, halfback and right wing stand out. Cam Roigard is world-class but the gap after him at 9 is significant, and Leroy Carter probably isn’t the answer on the right wing. Maybe Emoni Narawa is, but he needs to get himself physically right.
Robertson looks to have a decent group of loose forwards, but he still hasn’t settled on a cast-iron top three. Lakai or Sititi is a tough choice? Also captain isn’t a position, but it’s something he should be pondering hard (even though he probably won’t)
Who were the success stories of ‘25?
Two stand out. Fabian Holland was brilliant, morphing through his debut season into the best and most dependable lock in the squad, and also World Rugby’s breakthrough player of the year. Big, bad and beautiful.
Then there was Peter Lakai, whom Robertson had some warm words for at tour-end. The kid is a fabulous athlete, tough as teak and indefatigable. For all that, there’s refinement still required in his game.
Where does the All Blacks game need to improve?
Where do we start? Poise. Second-half efforts. Leadership. Flipping momentum back when it’s lost. High ball work. Attacking efficiency. Strategy. Consistency between tests. So far it’s been a flawed outfit lacking killer instinct or the ability to nut their way through tough periods.
That has to get better. And fast.