The All Blacks must become Rugby World Cup pragmatists if loss to Australia opens up softer side of draw
Friday, 5 December 2025
ANALYSIS: Had the All Blacks lost to the Springboks in the pool stages of the Rugby World Cup in Japan in 2019 they probably would have made the final.
It would have meant a quarterfinal against Japan and a semifinal against Wales - a comfortably easier route than Ireland in the quarterfinal and England in the semifinal, where they bowed out.
Losing a pool stage match in the Rugby World Cup isn’t the end of the world.
In fact, the All Blacks’ draw for the Rugby World Cup in 2027, revealed on Wednesday night, has created a scenario in which losing to the Wallabies in the pool stage would be a preferable outcome.
Read more
Defeat to the Wallabies would all but certainly send the All Blacks into the easier side of the draw for the knockout stages - avoiding the Springboks and France.
The All Blacks could then make the final by beating Japan, England and Ireland or Argentina - if results go to rankings.
If the All Blacks do beat Australia and finish top of their group, they’ll play a third-placed pool stage winner, the Springboks in the quarterfinal and then probably France in the semis.
It doesn’t take a genius to work out which is the best route to the final - there is no easy way but there is certainly a harder way in 2027.
England are more beatable than the Springboks, and France avec Dupont will be a team to be avoided as well.
This uncomfortable reality puts an entirely different light on the All Blacks’ pool stage match against the Wallabies.
The game has already been talked about as a possible tournament opener in Perth, but if the organisers are smart they’ll open with the Wallabies against Chile and try to schedule the All Blacks game at the MCG.
The All Blacks will undoubtedly put everything into the game against their old rivals and refuse to acknowledge the potential benefits from a defeat.
But this is professional sport, where it pays to be cynical, and if they find themselves in arrears late in the contest, or defending a narrow lead, they would be excused if they weren’t as desperate as their hosts.
It may go against what they stand for, but there is very little to be won out of that game if it means a quarterfinal against the Springboks and a semifinal against the French while the Australians get the chance to knock out England on home turf (a task which they are capable of).
A scenario in which the Wallabies and Springboks both progress to the semifinals while the All Blacks are on the flight home is easily imaginable if the All Blacks record a Pyrrhic victory in the pool stages.
Scott Robertson was hired to win a Rugby World Cup. At this stage delivering that big prize looks easier after a loss to the Wallabies.