Code wars: Is league really beating rugby in the battle for hearts and minds of Kiwis?

Sunday, 10 May 2026

This was no throwaway remark or glib reflection. No cheeky windup or desperate headline grab either. This was an All Blacks icon, and beloved Kiwi, speaking from the heart, and issuing a warning that not only dripped with emotion and poignancy, but should have sent a collective shudder down the spine of a New Zealand sporting public who once proudly called rugby their national sport.

Once? But do they now? According to at least one narrative, there has to be some doubt about that.

Rugby union (to use the 15-a-side code’s full title), reckons the great Sir Michael Jones, might just be in the process of losing the battle against rival code rugby league for the “hearts and minds” of New Zealanders. The Iceman, as he was dubbed in his pomp as one of the finest loose forwards to have laced ‘em up, has genuine concern that rugby is losing its spot on the iron throne of Kiwi sport.

When a man of Jones’ standing, mana and gravitas utters those words, how can you not pay attention? How can you not ask yourself: is he right? And is it too late to do anything about it?

Jones, who played 55 tests for the All Blacks, won the first ever World Cup with them in 1987, and has gone on to wield his considerable influence across New Zealand, Samoan and Pasifika rugby since his retirement, told AFP recently that he has genuine concerns for his sport.

His belief was the All Blacks had lost their aura of invincibility on the field and, off it, rugby league is “the game of the people right now”, He also spoke about the “positivity, innovation and creativity” of those running league causing headaches for rugby.

“You’ve got to tip your hat to what rugby league is doing, but, honestly, if rugby keeps their heads in the clouds we’ll all be playing league,” the 61-year-old told AFP. “Rugby has such a heritage and legacy and the All Blacks is a powerful brand. But we’re kidding ourselves if we think the All Blacks will always be the All Blacks to our nation and the people of the Pacific.”

Wow.

Some context. Jones’ beloved Moana Pasifika franchise had just announced that for financial reasons they would no longer be able to participate in Super Rugby Pacific beyond this year, barring an unforeseen, eleventh-hour bailout rescue package. That remains the longest of long shots.

Emotions would have been swirling for a man who had backed the Pasifika concept, and its noble mission, from the outset. The collapse would have hit hard. And Jones isn’t the only one concerned that Moana’s exit is endemic to a rugby ecosystem on the slide.

A similar warning was issued by another All Blacks great, in current Moana Pasifika head coach, and soon to be national assistant, Tana Umaga when he told the Sydney Morning Herald he despaired for rugby’s future in the islands.

“Rugby league’s got a great product at the moment, and it’s very popular,” Umaga told the SMH. “They’ve got a lot of money, and they’re all over the islands promoting it. The Pacific Islanders make up nearly 40% of all players in the NRL, similar to rugby.

“Our people are made for the game, they love the game, and they make up big numbers in it. But … if they all go to league, it’ll be a sad place for where rugby should be.”

Some more context. The Warriors are soaring in New Zealand, and the NRL with it. Even diehard rugby types tip their caps to the success of the Auckland-based outfit who regularly sell out their 25,000-capacity Mount Smart home stadium (drawing close to double the average attendance of the crosstown Blues), and have done so for seasons now. With strong TV numbers and a growing positive vibe around the club, fans cannot get enough of this team that, into round 10, sat second on the standings with a 7-2 record.

They’re also growing their brand nationally, as evidenced by the sellout 34,500 for the Warriors’ Anzac round game against the Dolphins in Wellington. The Hurricanes, top of the SRP standings, have not gone close to “house-full”, even though attendances are improving (close to 18,000 for the blockbuster clash against the Crusaders last round)..

And the NRL, who don’t mind a bit of hype, are seemingly intent on jumping on the Kiwi league bandwagon. They’ve already allocated a State of Origin match to Eden Park for 2027, and there is strong talk an expansion licence could be heading to Christchurch, though sources indicate that’s been complicated by an estimated $6 million fee being sought.

So, how concerned are rugby?

Newly appointed NZ Rugby chief executive and long-serving community game boss Steve Lancaster told the Star-Times his organisation acknowledged, and even celebrated, the success of their rival code, but were confident league’s growth wasn't happening at rugby’s expense. He pointed to junior registrations surging at several Auckland clubs and overall solid numbers among youngsters (there has been a slight, gradual decline in boys, while girls numbers are “going through the roof”).

Lancaster also cautioned against providing an Auckland lens, where the Blues, Moana, Warriors, Breakers and Auckland FC all compete in a crowded trans-Tasman professional sports market, to the wider New Zealand picture. He acknowledged the Warriors, Breakers and Auckland FC “all do a really good job of marketing and delivering their product” but was adamant rugby was not dropping the ball here.

“This whole narrative that we’re losing the hearts and minds of people, I don’t buy that at all,” he said. “We sold out six tests here last year. We’ve just had an incredible ‘Super Round’. It’s less losing hearts and minds, and more we’ve got to get the right broadcast offering, and the right in-stadia offering. You saw in Christchurch when you’ve got a stadium in the middle of the city … they came. I think they will continue to come.”

There’s also the “two things can be true at the same time” theory. Just because league is going gangbusters, it doesn't mean rugby has to be dying on the vine.

Lancaster nods. “This is not about rugby v league. We don’t win by them losing. We can both win. In [Auckland] with a population over 2 million, of course both can be strong. We’re very focused on getting our product offering right, getting our engagement right, and I don’t think we’re far away.”

Blues coach Vern Cotter doesn’t buy the rugby’s struggling line either. “I just think it’s narrative,” he said, citing a sellout Super Round as proof the game remained strong. “There were high-quality games. People need to understand there are great players here and they play a good brand of rugby … that Anzac weekend, New Zealand teams against Australian teams … it was fabulous.”

It’s also apples and oranges. The NRL has a polished, consistent and entertaining product that runs March-October, and has only the immensely popular State of Origin series to work around. Rugby, in contrast, has three tiers of competition (NPC, Super Rugby and international) and asks fans to engage on all three levels.

Undoubtedly Super Rugby Pacific has issues. There remains a competitive imbalance, despite Aussie improvement. It’s about to go down to 10 teams next year. And, truth be told, it doesn’t wash its face on the financial front. The product, too, lacks the entertainment factor and consistency of its NRL rival.

“We’re not trying to be the NRL,” shoots back Lancaster. “We don’t see it as a competition between us and them. Our model is different. International rugby is a real point of difference. That’s the showpiece of our game. Then Super Rugby is critical because it feeds that and provincial rugby is where you capture the talent. It’s hard to make it all fit, but it’s what’s unique about rugby.”

Warriors boss Cameron George told reporters after their Wellington game the sport was booming across Australia and New Zealand, with participation numbers, commercial growth and attendance all surging year on year.

“What I loved about Wellington, there were young kids celebrating the moment as well as what we call ‘day one supporters’ – the genuine rugby league people. They become your ambassadors when they have great experiences at our games and that inspires kids to play footy.

“We’re focused on what we do. I respect rugby union, absolutely, and it’s hard to draw crowds and be commercially savvy when you just don’t have the momentum. We’ve just got to continue to focus inwards and not rest on our laurels. We’ve got academies around the country and kids have a pathway to the NRL through us. We’re starting to see real growth around numbers in the academies.”

Lancaster concedes there’s a “bums on seats” issue for Super Rugby. He would love full stadiums to go with broadcast numbers he claims are trending up (Sky, notably, refused to release figures comparing Super Rugby and NRL audiences for ‘26); however that remains a “work in progress”.

“We don’t have our heads in the sand here. I’ll talk openly about the challenges around keeping junior boys in the game. And we have challenges around Super Rugby. The product is good when we get that mix right around the offering. It’s just about building on what’s working for us.”

In terms of where they could better capture those hearts and minds of Kiwis, Lancaster is unequivocal.

“Junior rugby. We have to have parents wanting kids to play rugby, and I don’t think that’s always the case at the moment. There’s a lot of talk about concussions and head injuries, and parents are increasingly going, ‘I’m not sure I want my kids exposed to that’.

“But junior rugby is safe. A kid would have to play 750 games to have a concussion. ACC data proves kids are more likely to suffer a fracture in the school playground at lunchtime than playing rugby. Our biggest challenge is turning that perception around so parents want kids playing rugby because they’re going to learn skills, discipline and resilience.”

Well-known Wellington league identity and mayor of Lower Hutt Ken Laban offers an interesting view on the footy furore. He commentates on both codes for Sky, has deep connections with both, and pinpoints when the tide turned in the 13-a-side sport’s favour.

Laban believes decisions made by rugby seven years ago axing the North Island’s under-13 Roller Mills tournaments, widened to a broader move away from representative events in the younger age-grades, has been disastrous for the sport.

“Some of those tournaments were close to 100 years old and were part of the fabric of the game,” noted Laban. “We were all asking the question: how do they think they can grow the game if they take it away from people?”

Around the same time as Roller Mills and the like were being ditched, Laban says league started its own version in the form of Aotearoa Maori tournaments which now attract upwards of 1000 players to events with age-grades from under-11s through under-17s.

“The hearts and minds of that very impressionable 10-13 year age-group were basically cast aside by rugby union and picked up by rugby league. Now those 11-year-old kids are 17 and 18, and they’ve been exposed to rugby league. Teddy Swims was halftime entertainment in the NRL final last year. At Dolphins-Warriors (in Wellington) on Anzac Day they had Shapeshifter at halftime.

“The Warriors and Dolphins sent lead parties three days before their game, doing community clinics, media … they’ve got a formula. I wouldn’t put it in the context of 2026. I would put it in the context of the last decade of growth where more and more kids have been exposed to the sport as a result of rugby turning its back on the likes of those Roller Mills tournaments.”

Clearly there’s a philosophical divide here, because Lancaster explains NZ Rugby is strongly guided by a belief youngsters don’t need to specialise early. “We take a quite altruistic view to youth rugby, and don’t try to channel kids into rugby exclusively at that age. We believe they should play other sports … and you don’t need to specialise in rugby in a position till you’re 16.”

Veteran media man Trevor McKewen is another well placed to observe both codes as a former chief executive of the Warriors who also held senior roles with NZ Rugby. In his view, league has made massive inroads into, not just capturing hearts and minds of Kiwis, but “more concerningly it’s also got the attention of the teenage elite capable of playing both codes”.

Adds McKewen: “All those kids coming through at the Warriors now were first XV stars at their schools, and were already in the rugby system. The concern is dual-pronged: it’s not just the fan who feels they’re getting a better deal with the NRL; a lot of rugby’s elite youth view the pathway systems through league as superior to union.

“That’s a concern. They’re not just losing hearts and minds, they’re losing money and talent. It’s taken 30 years, but the Warriors now have a proper pathway and they’re putting these kids into games against the elite of Australia, playing SG Ball, Jersey Flegg and NSW Cup, and the rate of improvement is quite rapid.”

Laban says it’s not a “them or us” situation, but urges rugby to respond to its challenges. “There are 600 rugby clubs in New Zealand … the future is not in any doubt. But league is compelling and engaging, and rugby needs to wrap its head around that.

“Rugby is already dominant in terms of participation numbers, history and profile. It’s up to them now to make it exciting and dynamic to suit the current generation of fans. It can’t be old and boring. It’s got to be Teddy Swims and Che Fu.”

McEwen adds a rejoinder. He believes the NRL is in danger of missing its chance to grab the ascendancy in New Zealand by adding a second team. “The jewel is there to be taken,” he says. “But there's a good chance they’ll blow this and won’t add a second Kiwi team when it’s obvious they should.

“But, hell yeah, rugby should be concerned. If they want a reality check just go into any bar in New Zealand right now and join a group and see what the conversation is about. It’s increasingly about the Warriors and the NRL”

Those hearts and minds certainly have a choice now.

SUPER RUGBY – still kicking*

In 2025

Match attendance up 8% year on year, despite 7 fewer games

2 million viewers on Sky Sport and Sky Open

8.5m streams across Sky digital platforms

Grand final: total linear TV audience 726,000 (up from 644,000 in ‘24), plus 306,000 streaming, 40,000 te reo Māori = total audience 1m-plus (largest since 2016)

Super Rugby Pacific first domestic rugby competition in world to surpass 2.5m social media followers, with 25% year-on-year growth

Through 10 rounds in 2026

Nearly 2m Kiwis engaging in SRP on Sky’s platforms

Highlanders record multiple attendances exceeding 10% of Dunedin’s population

Hurricanes have gained 25,000+ Instagram followers since start of season

* via NZ Rugby