Fifa World Cup: France or Spain? Assessing the main contenders, who makes the final and who wins
Tuesday, 30 June 2026
ANALYSIS: Sixteen teams are bound for home, including the All Whites, and now it’s down to the serious business at this Fifa World Cup these next three weeks.
The round of 32 runs until Saturday (NZT) when one of the tournament favourites Argentina face surprise packages Cape Verde.
The Post football writers Ian Anderson and Tony Smith run their eye over the leading contenders after the group phase, and predict who will contest the final in New Jersey on July 20 (NZT).
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Rating the All Whites from their three World Cup group games
Ian Anderson
The best team in the group stage is not always the side which lifts the trophy. Prime case studies feature West Germany in 1974 and Italy in 1982.
From now, it’s all about which team is best equipped to deal with the pressure and physical tolls of knockout football.
Hence why I’ll stick with my original selection of Spain winning the 2026 tournament.
They rarely found their stride in group play, being held to a shock scoreless draw by Cape Verde in their opening match and being kicked around the park by bad-tempered Uruguay.
But importantly, they’ve yet to concede a goal, and it’s often the best defensive sides which go deep through the knockout rounds.
So while France’s Kylian Mbappe and Argentina’s superstar veteran Lionel Messi have been banging in the goals - 10 between them in group play - goalscoring will become tougher to come by in the remaining three weeks.
Spain meet Austria in the round of 32 (7am Friday NZT), and a win would put them up against the victors between Portugal and Croatia (likely Portugal) in the last 16. Win that, and they’ll face whoever emerges from the quartet of the US, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Belgium and Senegal in the bottom quarter of one side of the draw.
After coming off the bench against Cape Verde, teenage sensation Lamine Yamal is growing in influence and the 2024 Euro champions have quality in all positions.
Even if 39-year-old Messi’s scoring spree slows, Argentina should still be favoured to advance to the final from the other half of the draw.
Expected to see off new darlings Cape Verde first-up, they’d then meet the winner of Saturday’s Australia/Egypt sudden-death encounter, and then it’s one of the foursome of Switzerland, Algeria, Colombia or Ghana.
Winners: Spain. Runnersup: Argentina.
Tony Smith
Substance sometimes trumps style. As mentioned above, the best team doesn’t always win the World Cup - think Ferenc Puskas and his Magnificent Magyars from Hungary in 1954 or Zico and Socrates’ Brazil in 1982.
But France must be sentimental favourites for the way they play and their fabulous forward line that has netted 10 goals in group games.
Great players abound in all title-contending squads, but France’s Kylian Mbappé, Désiré Doué , Michael Olise and Ousmane Dembélé - first half hat-trick hero against Norway - are an attack for the ages.
Conservative coach Didier Deschamps can throw off the shackles. He has depth to burn in Rayan Cherki, Bradley Barcola and Jean-Philippe Mateta with prodigious young talent Warren-Zaïre Emery not always guaranteed game-time off the bench.
The French defence conceded two goals in pool play and is yet to be tested by a top attack.
They should sweep Sweden (9am Wednesday NZT) before a potentially tricky round of 16 game against Germany, who also scored 10 group stage goals but conceded four and have lost top defender Nico Schlotterbeck. France can beat anyone.
Spain will be tough, especially if wing wizards Lamine Yabal and Nico Williams stay healthy.
England have Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane and a decent attacking support act, but their defence looks too brittle.
The World Cup has only produced back-to-back finalists once - in 1986 and 1990 when Argentina and West Germany duelled for one win apiece.
But France and Argentina - finalists in 2022 - are on course for a repeat.
The Argentines edged France on penalties in Qatar and with Lionel Messi still scoring for fun (six goals and still counting) it’s not inconceivable that they could be back to defend their title.
But you sense Mbappé and his mates are motivated to atone for the heartbreak of Qatar. Les Bleus, pour moi.
Winners: France. Runnersup: Argentina.
Remaining round of 32 schedule
Tuesday (NZT): Brazil v Japan, Houston, 5am; Germany v Paraguay, Boston, 8.30am; Netherlands v Morocco, Monterrey, 1pm
Wednesday: Ivory Coast v Norway, Dallas, 5am; France v Sweden, New Jersey, 9am; Mexico v Ecuador, Mexico City, 1pm
Thursday: England v DR Congo, Atlanta, 4am; Belgium v Senegal, Seattle, 8am; United States v Bosnia and Herzegovina, San Francisco, 12pm
Friday: Spain v Austria, Los Angeles, 7am; Portugal v Croatia, Toronto, 11am; Switzerland v Algeria, Vancouver, 3pm
Saturday: Australia v Egypt, Dallas, 6am; Argentina v Cape Verde, Miami, 10am; Colombia v Ghana, Kansas City, 1.30pm