What the test series win over England tells us about the Black Caps’ chances of toppling Australia
Sunday, 5 July 2026
ANALYSIS: It’s not quite the final frontier.
But the Black Caps will still need to boldly go where very few teams - including themselves - have gone before to force themselves into another World Test Championship final.
Yet the just-completed 2-1 series win over England has provided a blueprint that may be heavily relied upon when they travel across the Tasman to play four tests against WTC table-toppers Australia this summer.
Since their first visit in 1973, New Zealand have won just three of their 34 tests in Australia including a solitary series win - when the Sir Richard Hadlee-inspired side won 2-1 in 1985. India have been the only touring team in the past seven years to win a series there.
In their most recent test trip, there were elevated expectations of the Black Caps that the likes of Tom Latham, Kane Williamson, Ross Taylor, BJ Watling, Tim Southee, Neil Wagner and Trent Boult could upset the hosts.
But that 2019-20 series ended with a humbling 3-0 defeat for the tourists.
Current test captain Latham is the only remaining player from that group of seven stars listed above, from a series in which Glenn Phillips made his test debut.
The pace bowling department - which included Lockie Ferguson’s sole test appearance, cut short by injury in Perth - has been completely rejigged, and it’s the depth of the current Black Caps pacemen that could give optimism for the tests in Perth, Adelaide, Melbourne and Sydney.
New Zealand have used nine quick bowlers in their past seven tests versus the West Indies, Ireland and England.
Their first choice line-up - which played in the first test defeat to England at Lord’s - is Matt Henry, Kyle Jamieson, Will O’Rourke and Nathan Smith. But backing them up are Jacob Duffy (who missed the recent tour due to parental leave), Blair Tickner, Ben Sears and Zak Foulkes, along with Michael Rae, Matt Fisher and Kristian Clarke.
Given that the Black Caps will play six tests - they meet India at home in a two-match series in November - effectively back-to-back until early January, Latham and coach Rob Walter know they will have to be smart with usage and selection.
'Having a stable of fast bowlers is critical and if you ask any selectors around the world from any country, you're going to get the same answer,' said NZ selector Gavin Larsen this week.
'I'm touching wood here, [but] we are in a reasonably good position at the moment in New Zealand cricket where we've got a number of good quality fast bowlers. So the intention, certainly, is to carefully manage those bowlers.
'But look, already you can see off the back of three test matches against England, you can see the attrition rate. I'm glancing down and seeing four names that are back on the physio table or under the knife, so I'm very conscious of that. The depth of those fast bowlers is crucial and us managing their workloads and their return-to-play processes is critical.'
Kyle Jamieson sat out the third and final test of the series, which NZ won at Trent Bridge to claim a memorable series victory, after making his return to test cricket following a second back stress fracture.
'Really, really pleased about that,' Larsen said.
'Obviously it's always a day-by-day monitoring job around the quick bowlers. Kyle has got the history of the injuries, and he's been off the park a lot in the last couple of years, so to have him back and operating at full speed is excellent.
'He has attributes that you want in a fast bowler: he's tall, he gets bounce, he gets movement. So he's a vital component of our line-up. But then I could go through… I would throw someone like a Nathan Smith into the mix now and the role that he played in that No. 8 role as the fourth seamer - well, I mean, he's better than a fourth seamer, I think he proved that. When you think of Henry and O'Rourke and the supporting cast, yeah, it's looking positive.'
O’Rourke was also playing his first test series since a back stress fracture ended his part in the two-test series prematurely against Zimbabwe in the middle of last year. He played all three games against England and impressed with 10 wickets at 25.60, with a hamstring strain forcing him to miss the final moments of the series.
Smith emerged as a major start of the tour of Ireland and England, capturing 24 wickets in four tests.
Concerns that he may not get close to that success in Australia - with the hard pitches often a graveyard for visiting fast bowlers - may have been eased somewhat by the success seamers Michael Neser and Scott Boland had for the hosts in the Ashes last summer, against an England side which opted for all-out pace instead and was comprehensively outplayed over the five tests.
Foulkes’ inswingers also offer a point of difference, displayed in his six wickets in the series-clinching win at Trent Bridge when he got his chance as a concussion substitute for Tickner.
'We were full of hope [last time] and that was the Boult, Southee, Wagner, Henry era and we saw how that unfolded,' Larsen said.
'I'll be guarded with my answer… I think we have got some talent. If we've got everyone fit, then I believe we've got the attributes to challenge the Australian team.
'We know how good they are in their home conditions and we say it year in, year out, it's the ultimate test really for New Zealand. I can't wait for it already but I've got everything crossed that we've got all our fast bowlers fit and ready to go.'
The batting line-up will be without Williamson, who retired from international cricket after the loss at Lord’s, but will contain plenty of experience in Latham, Devon Conway, Henry Nicholls, Daryl Mitchell, wicketkeeper Tom Blundell, along with Rachin Ravindra and Phillips, who made his maiden test century at The Oval.
New Zealand sit third in the 2025-27 World Test Championship standings, behind Australia and South Africa on percentage, with the top two sides at the end of the regular season making the final.
Australia have a rating of 87.50% from eight games, with South Africa next on 75% from just four tests, while the Black Caps are on 72.22% after two wins over the West Indies, two over England, a draw versus the Windies and the first-test loss to England at Lord’s.
Bangladesh sit fourth on 58.33%, with India on 48.15% from nine tests.
New Zealand’s two tests against India are at the Basin Reserve and Hagley Oval in November, while the Proteas will host Australia in three tests in October.
Other notable WTC series in the coming months will be South Africa hosting England in December-January for three tests, and Australia touring India for five tests in January-February.
The last four WTC tests in their campaign for the Black Caps are two at home against Sri Lanka, in Mt Maunganui and Hamilton, followed by two away tests versus Pakistan in March.
New Zealand cricket tests in Australia
*Played 34 (1973-2020), won 3, lost 20, drawn 11
Nov 1985: Won by an innings and 41 runs in Brisbane
Dec 1985: Won by 6 wickets in Perth
Dec 2011: Won by 7 runs in Hobart
Black Caps upcoming tests
November 19-23: 1st test v India at Basin Reserve, Wellington
Nov 27-December 1: 2nd test v India at Hagley Oval, Christchurch
Dec 9-13: 1st test v Australia at Perth Stadium
Dec 17-21: 2nd test v Australia at Adelaide Oval
Dec 26-30: 3rd test v Australia at Melbourne Cricket Ground
January 4-8: 4th test v Australia at Sydney Cricket Ground