Predicting the World Cup semifinalists - will there be a shock last-eight winner?
Thursday, 9 July 2026
ANALYSIS: Hail, hail, the gang of favourites are all there.
We’ve had some wonderful underdog moments, but it’s now business time at the 2026 World Cup, and France, Spain, Argentina and England have their business socks on.
With Colombia getting knocked out on penalties on Wednesday by Switzerland in the match cheekily labelled as ‘Charlie versus The Chocolate Factory’, the quarterfinal draw is set, with red-hot France kicking it off at 8am Friday (NZ time) against Morocco in Boston.
The other last-eight encounters will see Spain meet Belgium in Los Angeles, England face Norway in Miami and Lionel Messi’s one-man show travels to Kansas City to find Switzerland as his next stooge.
Picking the tournament winner hasn’t got a great deal easier than it was at the start of the 48-team competition last month. France were the choice of our perceptive football writer Tony Smith, who will have confidently watched them march into the quarters, while this writer opted for Euro 2024 champions Spain.
A semifinal between those two picks looms, although the current favourite with the bookmakers to lift the Cup in New Jersey could yet see their runaway campaign hit a nasty judderbar against the 2022 semifinalists.
Morocco are capable of frustrating the attacking thrusts of Kylian Mbappe and co, and all that has been missing in this fantastic on-field tournament to date is a whopping upset.
In the bottom half of that side of the draw, Belgium - popular conquerors of the US - will need to find a way to solve a problem that no team has yet managed - to score a goal against Spain.
It’s not that Spain are ultra-defensive - it’s simply that they gain and keep so much possession of the football that opponents have greatly limited opportunities to do damage.
England produced a mighty effort to beat another tournament co-host, Mexico, at the Azteca Stadium, to reach the last eight.
Their reward is to meet a rampaging Erling Haaland, who has carried his team on his hulking shoulders with seven goals in the greatest Golden Boot race in World Cup history.
Will England manager Thomas Tuchel be bold and start gigantic Newcastle United centreback Dan Burn as the ideal foil?
While Haaland has constantly destroyed English Premier League defences, Burn has an excellent record against the blonde blunderbuss and has the physicality - if not the pace - to tackle the task.
How much the exertion of playing with 10 men at altitude will have on England is uncertain, but if they can stop Haaland from running riot, the class of their own goalscoring legend Harry Kane, along with Jude Bellingham and Bukayo Saka, could get them home in another game with multiple goals.
If Egypt coach Hossam Hassan is to be believed - and he appeared to have a legitimate reason to vociferously claim so - that Lionel Messi’s side are getting favourable calls, then it’s impossible to see anything else than a victory over Switzerland for the defending champions. So much for neutrality.
Hassan seems to have quickly forgotten the non-call for the two fouls on All Whites substitute Ben Old which changed the complexion of their group match, so he gets a small violin and bow in return.
OUR PICKS (WINNERS IN BOLD)
TONY SMITH: FRANCE v Morocco, SPAIN v Belgium, Norway v ENGLAND, ARGENTINA v Switzerland.
IAN ANDERSON: MOROCCO v France, SPAIN v Belgium, Norway v ENGLAND, ARGENTINA v Switzerland.