Commonwealth Games 2026: Predicting the New Zealand medal haul and how many golds in Glasgow

Thursday, 23 July 2026

Ellesse Andrews is entered in four events at the Glasgow velodrome (file photo).

ANALYSIS: Thirty-five is the magic number for New Zealand when the slimmed down, supercharged 23rd Commonwealth Games launches with the opening ceremony and parade of nations in Glasgow early on Friday (6.30am NZT).

A team of 112 Kiwi athletes (without shot putter Jacko Gill and boxer Wendell Stanley who were late withdrawals) filtered into Scotland to the traditional haka welcome, and will chase medals in 10 sports across 10 days - against 73 other nations and territories.

Four years ago in Birmingham the Kiwi team of 232 smashed records with 50 medals - 20 of them gold - across 13 sports. This time, after the hosting debacle which saw Victoria withdraw, there’s no squash, mountainbiking, road cycling, triathlon, rugby sevens, wrestling and T20 cricket which lowers the government funding agency’s expectations.

High Performance Sport NZ - which contributed to the $8 million cost of sending the team and heavily funds cycling ($5.25 million in direct core investment per year), athletics ($3.7m), netball’s Silver Ferns ($2.2m) and swimming ($1m) - set its target at 35-plus medals.

HPSNZ director of high performance Steve Tew told The Post: “We published a target of 38+ before the programme was announced and have revised to a target of 35+ based on the 10 confirmed Games sports. We wanted to be realistic without adding pressure.”

Which leaves us to scratch the head for some predictions from that 35-medal starting point.

The first full day of competition is Friday night (NZT), and swimmer Erika Fairweather is our likely first medallist in her top event, the women’s 400m freestyle (6.07am Saturday).

Fairweather - fourth in a stellar Paris Olympics 400m final - is facing none of the rivals who beat her then, although Australia’s Lani Pallister is gold medal favourite. The 22-year-old from Dunedin is entered in six events, coming off some fast times at the nationals, and will be a gold medal threat in the 200m freestyle (6.41am Sunday).

Lewis Clareburt won dual golds in Birmingham and is chasing medals in four swimming events in Glasgow (file photo).

Lewis Clareburt won golds in his specialist 400m medley and 200m butterfly in Birmingham and is back to defend those, and contest the 200m medley and 200m freestyle. His first final is the 200m medley soon after Fairweather (6.16am Saturday).

From the Tollcross International Swimming Centre to the Sir Chris Hoy Velodrome which hosts 26 medal events in track cycling and para cycling, where the New Zealand team are likely double-figure medallists (they won 13 at the velodrome in 2022).

The queen of track cycling, Ellesse Andrews, returns as our main medal hope; favoured to repeat her golds in the keirin, sprint and team sprint with Rebecca Petch and Olivia King. Andrews is also entered in a fourth event, the 1km time trial, and will chase her first gold in the team sprint early on Friday July 31.

Bryony Botha is a warm favourite to repeat her individual pursuit gold from Birmingham while Tom Sexton is back to improve on his silver in the men’s event. The men’s and women’s pursuit teams are always threats for gold while top road rider Ally Wollaston is targeting the women’s points race after winning omnium bronze in Paris.

New Zealand's Hamish Kerr could add another Commonwealth Games gold to his extensive trophy cabinet (file photo).

Aaron Gate, who won four golds in Birmingham including the road race, is a notable absentee in favour of his road commitments.

Scotstoun Stadium hosts the track and field where high jumper Hamish Kerr (6.10am Tuesday) and shot putter Tom Walsh (6am next Friday) are back chasing repeat golds. Kerr, the world and Olympic champion, placed doubt on his participation after taking a break to freshen up, and will be the shortest-priced favourite if he lines up.

Walsh hasn’t been at his best in strong fields in Europe but this is still very winnable for him, with 2022 silver medallist Gill sidelined with injury.

Elsewhere at the track, para sprinter Anna Grimaldi (women’s T47 100m), 3000m steeplechase world champion Geordie Beamish, 100m sprinter Zoe Hobbs, pole vaulters Imogen Ayris and Eliza McCartney are all big podium hopes. The Kenyans for Beamish, the Jamaicans for Hobbs, and Australian Nina Kennedy for the pole vaulters are the stumbling blocks.

Then there’s the Silver Ferns, back under Dame Noeline Taurua with a steely determination and on form likely to meet Australia in the gold medal match (12am Monday, August 3).

Weightlifter David Liti, who won gold in 2018 and silver in 2022, is a big hope again while lawn bowlers Tayla Bruce (women’s singles) and Selina Goddard and Katelyn Inch (women’s pairs) are serious medal hopes.

Judokas Sydnee Andrews and Moira de Villiers each snared bronze four years ago while medals in 3x3 basketball, boxing and gymnastics wouldn’t surprise.

Where does that leave us, prediction-wise? Let’s say 38 medals in all, including 12 golds with the Silver Ferns and Andrews in the keirin bringing it home with a big finish in the early hours of Monday, August 3.