Turbulence isn’t over - what’s changing for Kiwi travellers in 2026
Monday, 8 December 2025
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OPINION: This past year has been another bumpy one for air travel, with fliers facing high prices and disruption while the long post-pandemic capacity recovery to improve connectivity for New Zealanders has been gradual.
A series of problems with usually reliable workhorse Airbus A320s that came to light within a week shows how quickly and widely the unexpected can hit the complex air travel system.
So with the rider that ‘anything can happen in aviation’, here’s a look at some of what’s ahead in 2026 for Kiwi air travellers.
More scrutiny on prices
Latest Stats NZ data showed both international and especially domestic fares falling from recent highs. In October they were down 2.4% on the year before. Travel agents report long haul fares into next year are moderating and the return of more Chinese airlines will help push down prices in the first part of 2026 at least.
But airline algorithms give them the ability to charge what the market can tolerate and Air New Zealand’s pricing will be under increased scrutiny. It’s still the dominant international carrier with about 40% of the market and more than 80% of domestic flying.
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Half-owned by the Government on behalf of taxpayers, and with many other small private Kiwi shareholders there’s strong financial connection here, even if the emotional attachment has ebbed. Next year’s election means the airline’s fares, especially in regional New Zealand, will be a rich target for politicians looking for electoral traction.
The ‘’Prince of the Provinces,’’ Shane Jones, has turned the blowtorch on the airline before. Air NZ on some domestic routes will lift capacity by up to 17% next year and travellers will hope the economic equation of more seats leading to lower prices will apply.
More planes - at last
Air NZ was unlucky to have the engine types on its A320 family of domestic and shorthaul planes and its longhaul Boeing 787 Dreamliners needing unexpected, complex maintenance. It is approaching a decade of Rolls-Royce engine problems on the Dreamliners and over the last two years close to a quarter of its jet fleet has been grounded at any one time for repairs, crimping growth and forcing it to scrub routes and do costly lease deals to plug gaps.
Although maintenance issues will stretch into 2027, the cadence of getting planes through engineering is lifting, allowing more domestic flying next year. Even better news is the arrival of the first of eight new Dreamliners which is now on the Boeing production line and due for delivery some time in the first part of 2026.
More competition
This summer the country’s main international gateway, Auckland Airport is reporting a 3.7% lift in capacity this summer compared to last year. While seat numbers are still 8% down on the last summer before the pandemic, competition to the US is intense with seven airlines flying there non-stop from Auckland and six airlines are now flying directly to China and beyond to other countries in Asia and to Europe.
Many summer services are now extending into April. The launch of the Southern Link Shanghai-Auckland-Buenos Aires flights last week means there are now two airlines flying directly to South America and it could be the forerunner to this country acting as a hub for more ultra long routes.
Christchurch Airport goes into 2026 with a record-breaking international summer season, with international capacity 15% above last year and exceeding pre-Covid levels. Qantas and subsidiary Jetstar’s new trans-Tasman and domestic flying during summer and into next year is its single-biggest expansion here.
New services out of Hamilton, a new aircraft type out of Wellington (A220s) and expansion in Christchurch and Queenstown are signs the Qantas Group sees this country as a driver of growth. As it gets new planes it will look to do more flying here, with new routes out of places south of Auckland in particular are on the radar. Other airlines eyeing New Zealand include Thai Airways (which pulled out when the pandemic hit) and fast growing Turkish Airlines which is expanding in Australia.
Better aircraft cabins
Air NZ should have refitted its existing fleet of 14 Dreamliners with new seats and interiors by the end of 2026. That allows it to compete on an even footing with most of its international competitors, especially in premium cabins. The international headline grabber will be the arrival of its Skynest economy sleeping pods in new Dreamliners.
The planes - with more premium seats too - will be used on routes such Auckland-New York where Skynest will be available for between $400 and $600 for a four-hour stint. The airline has for years relied on the great reputation of its cabin crew to ‘’do the heavy lifting’’ while its international hard product became increasingly dated.
Qantas will use this country for some trial flights of its Project Sunrise A350-1000ULR planes late next year, flying the Tasman before they start their Australia-London or New York non-stop flights. The premium-heavy cabins, with first class suites, also have a new wellness space for economy passengers on the flights of up to 22 hours that start in 2027.
Other airlines serving New Zealand undergoing major cabin upgrades next year include Emirates (which is also getting Starlink connectivity), Singapore Airlines’ A350s which will start to get new seats as part of an overhaul of the entire in-flight experience (including Starlink) and Cathay Pacific with its Aria Suites on planes Kiwis can connect with in Hong Kong.
The ground war intensifies
Air NZ’s new Koru loyalty programme kicks off next April with new benefits especially for its highest spending fliers but there’s scope for millions of less frequent, budget travellers to benefit from a range of goodies as the airline looks to lock them in and away from the competition - Jetstar.
Qantas has targeted Air NZ customers with loyalty deals before and could do the same again. The Australian airline will also open its expanded and substantially remodelled lounge at Auckland Airport opening before Christmas, as its Kiwi rival will spend the next two years working on its two-tier lounge in which its most elite customers will get their own space.
While airlines will duke it out in loyalty and lounges, they usually unite to fight airports and government agencies over charges and that will continue into 2026.
Grant Bradley is a business and aviation journalist.