NZ travel to the US keeps sliding as border rules tighten
Monday, 23 February 2026
Grant Bradley is a business and aviation journalist.
OPINION: Declining New Zealand travel to the United States is set to continue a downward slide.
One travel chain boss has noted that being in the North American market is ‘’not a great place to be’.’
Proposed new US border rules could make even tougher the already intimidating challenge of entering the country. Airlines primarily rely on inbound travel by American visitors to fill planes during summer, especially their highly profitable premium cabins, but travel to the US by Kiwis has been critical to making those routes viable.
Latest Stats NZ figures show overseas travel by New Zealand continues at record levels to other countries, but trips to the United States are falling.
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In November last year, New Zealand resident traveller arrivals (the measure of short overseas trips) hit a record of 247,200, up from the previous high in 2019 of 233,700. Visits to the US were down by 1800 for the month and dipped by 12,000 - or 6.7% - for the year. These mirror figures which show trips to the US are down from other countries too, especially Canada and from Europe.
US government International Trade Administration figures show visits out of Oceania to the country were down 7.2% last year compared to 2024.
Air New Zealand warned as early as October last year of weakness in bookings to the US, the key pillar of its Pacific Rim strategy. How this has affected the airline’s interim result will be known later this month. The importance of the US market, where it faces intense competition during summer, is one reason the airline is said to have pulled out all stops to avoid further reputational damage and rebook passengers and compensate those affected by the cabin crew strike this month.
Around the middle of last year, Air NZ was piling into North America, announcing plans to operate 8% more seats to the United States and Canada compared to the previous year, including a 15% increase in premium seating.
Auckland Airport’s chief customer officer Scott Tasker says capacity between the US and New Zealand’s main international gateway is up 3% on what it was before the pandemic. But, despite Air NZ’s capacity boost, it is flat compared to last summer, although that’s largely because US airlines are using more premium-heavy planes with fewer overall seats. While inbound loads are high, he links hesitancy by Kiwis to go to the US to the exchange rate, meaning the Kiwi dollar doesn’t go as far in the country, where on-the-ground prices have soared in the past few years.
“If it's discretionary and it’s your holiday, a few people are going to look at some other options,’’ he says.
It’s not only travellers from this region who are putting off trips to the US, where there have been anecdotal reports of visitors getting a hard time at the border with phones seized against the background of that country’s sometimes violent immigration crackdown. Around a dozen countries have updated warnings to those travelling to the US in the past year, but New Zealand’s Safe Travel site maintains advice last updated in November 2024 which warns ‘’exercise increased caution due to the threat of terrorism.’’
Figures from the World Travel and Tourism Council show the US suffered a 6% drop in foreign visitors in 2025, at the same time as more than 1.5 billion global travellers spent record amounts in other countries. Many people, especially younger travellers, say US anti-immigration policies pushed tourists to European countries such as Spain and France, as well as Japan, the council has said.
The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has urged US border agencies to take a “balanced approach” to Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA) changes, warning tougher requirements could undermine US competitiveness and disrupt travel.
The proposed reforms would require travellers to provide multiple years of personal data, including social media accounts, phone numbers, email addresses and expanded family information, with the possibility of biometric submissions. Until now agreeing to share social media accounts has been optional.
Consultation on the US Customs and Border Protection agency’s plan has ended and could be introduced in the next few months, affecting visa waiver countries such as New Zealand although could be amended or not implemented at all. The GBTA says that overly burdensome requirements could create compliance conflicts with international privacy laws and raise costs for companies sending staff to the US.
The group is calling for security measures that protect borders without deterring legitimate travel.
The country’s tourism promotion body Brand USA told NZ’s Travel Today that while short-term fluctuations can occur across all long-haul markets, Australia and New Zealand remain one of the most vital international markets for the US.
The trade publication also reported House of Travel boss David Coombes as saying that while the US was a tough market, the firm was on track for a record result as Kiwis pivoted to other destinations.