All eyes are trained on the Strait of Hormuz. So are Iran's weapons
Thursday, 12 March 2026
The distress call said there was a fire in the engine room. The crew of the Mayuree Naree had to abandon ship.
As one of thousands of stranded tankers and cargo vessels waiting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the Thai bulk carrier seemingly chanced a run through the eye of a needle yesterday (Wednesday) when it was struck by Iranian fire shortly after entering the shipping lane from the United Arab Emirates.
All but three members of the crew that had hoped to traverse Hormuz to reach Kandla in India were rescued by the navy of neighbouring Oman, but Iran had only just begun to demonstrate its threat to a 24-mile stretch of water, through which flows 20 per cent of the world's oil supplies. By mid-morning it became clear that another two ships had been hit in the early hours: the Japan-flagged container ship ONE Majesty, struck 25 nautical miles northwest of Ras Al Khaimah in the UAE; and the Marshall Islands-flagged Star Gwyneth, a bulk carrier, roughly 50 miles northwest of Dubai.
The night before, on Iran's southern border, the night sky lit up like a fireworks display as US troops blew up two small fast-attack craft lurking in shallow waters. Seconds later, declassified video footage released by US Central Command showed, another vessel was hit by a missile, and then another, leaving the boats engulfed in flames.
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For almost two weeks there have been warnings that the Iran war will paralyse shipping through the Gulf, prompting President Trump to promise navy escorts through the strait 'as soon as possible', vowing: 'No matter what, the United States will ensure the FREE FLOW of ENERGY to the WORLD … More actions to come.'
Tehran, too, is promising more action to come, offering a withering response to the growing international outcry over attacks on commercial shipping. Regime military commanders warned Trump on Wednesday to 'get ready' for oil prices to rise to US$200 a barrel as the conflict intensified from an approach of 'reciprocal hits' shifting towards 'continuous strikes' on shipping.
The strait is fast becoming a hellscape for any ship and, despite the US military being deployed to the region, there is little anyone can do to stop Iranian attacks. Securing Hormuz will not be easy now or in future, experts warn, as Iran has been 'thinking about it, preparing, for decades'.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it struck the vessels on Wednesday after they ignored warnings to stop. The navy commander, Alireza Tangsiri, said 'any vessel intending to pass must get permission from Iran'.
Estimates suggest more than 3,000 vessels are stuck in the Gulf waiting to move through the pinch-point at Hormuz. In all, an estimated 4 per cent of global shipping is sitting idle, according to analysts. Peter Aylott, of the UK Chamber of Shipping, told Times Radio that shipping passing through the strait had dropped from 100 vessels a day to fewer than five, mostly Iranian.
Drawing on oil reserves
In an attempt to calm fears, the International Energy Agency announced the biggest release of oil reserves in its 50-year history to stabilise markets. The 32-nation alliance, which includes Britain and was created in response to the 1973-74 oil crisis, agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves, more than double the previous record of 182 million barrels during the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Pentagon officials stress the threat is not going unaddressed, claiming that in the air campaign so far more than 60 Iranian ships have been hit, including on Tuesday the last of the four Shahid Soleimani-class warships being 'taken out of the fight' in a series of raids that destroyed 16 minelayers near the strait.
America has warned civilians to avoid ports near the strait. In a statement published online, the US Central Command (Centcom) said Iranian naval forces had positioned military vessels and equipment in civilian ports. 'This dangerous action risks the lives of innocent people,' it added, before suggesting it could soon strike these areas.
In a video address on Wednesday, Admiral Brad Cooper, the commander of Centcom, said: 'For years the Iranian regime has threatened commercial shipping in international waters. Our mission is to end their ability to … harass shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.' The US strikes - being carried out in waves nearly every hour - were 'unpredictable, dynamic and decisive', he added.
Completing the mission, as Cooper outlined, will take time. Iran has more than 5,000 mines in its arsenal and 1000 vessels waiting to deploy them, according to former military chiefs.
Fishing boats and hidden mines
Tom Sharpe, a former Royal Navy commander who specialises in mine warfare, said Tehran had more than 1000 dhows, or wooden fishing boats, for laying mines. CNN reported Iran had laid a few dozen mines in the strait in recent days, according to two people familiar with US intelligence. British intelligence and Nato are also monitoring such activity with alarm.
One of the sources said that although the mining was not extensive yet, Iran still had upward of 80 to 90% of its small boats and minelayers. In theory, its forces could feasibly lay hundreds of mines in the waterway, although in practice it needs to deploy only a few to scare commercial ships away. A Nato source told The Times: 'We are watching, we are monitoring … We can only judge on what we see and there is so much we don't see.'
Trump said on Truth Social on Tuesday: 'If Iran has put out any mines in the Hormuz Strait, and we have no reports of them doing so, we want them removed, IMMEDIATELY!'
At least 14 commercial ships are believed to have been targeted in the strait so far, but the US navy has refused near-daily requests from the shipping industry for military escorts, saying the risk of attacks is too high, according to sources familiar with the matter. Trump has claimed the US is prepared to provide naval escorts when needed.
President Macron of France has said he wants to set up military escorts in the strait 'as soon as possible', although any such mission would have to wait until the fighting subsides. The UK is in talks with allies about how it can help, but the dire state of the Royal Navy means it has little to offer.
Steve Prest, a retired commodore and former director of navy acquisition, said protecting the strait was a 'really challenging task'. The IRGC has a wide array of capabilities at its disposal, including dispersed minelaying craft, explosive-laden boats and shore-based missile batteries, he said, and small boats could deploy mines in swarms.
'Their strategy is not necessarily to win, but to make the cost of continuing the operation [Operation Epic Fury] intolerable,' Prest said.
Sharpe said the difficulty was that the dhows looked like fishing boats. 'They can lay mines really quickly but the problem with striking them is they won't know it is a mine or fishing boat until it is too late.' Although US war planes and ships can target vessels before they lay mines, getting rid of explosives once they are in the sea is another matter. Minesweepers are typically poorly protected and not designed to operate under fire.
'Clearing the mines under fire would come at great cost. You need to suppress the risk from fire before you can clear the mines,' said Prest, also an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.
Once the mines are dealt with, a US-led convoy to escort ships through the strait would require constant surveillance, and a protective ring made up of aircraft and helicopters ready to shoot down any threats.
Prest added: 'You would need to make sure you removed the threats along the coast and provide overwatch from the air. To do that you would need to have dealt with enemy air defences. This won't happen in the next couple of days.'
The blockade threatens Gulf monarchies whose economies rely on energy exports. Abbas Dahouk, a retired colonel and former senior military adviser at the US Department of State and defence attache to Saudi Arabia, suggested that although the Saudis would seek to keep the strait open, they were 'unlikely to attempt direct military control or confront Iran at the choke-point itself'. Instead, he said, Riyadh would take a 'cautious, coalition-based approach, contributing surveillance, air and missile defence coverage, and limited naval escorts in safer … waters'.
Boots on the ground?
For now, officials in the region hope the US navy could escort shipping to cut the risk. Even this strategy would not 'fully guarantee safe passage', Dahouk said. There may be a shift towards exporting more Saudi oil from the Red Sea, but as Dahouk pointed out, this 'creates a new vulnerability because tankers must pass near areas where Yemen's Houthi movement has demonstrated the ability to target maritime traffic using missiles and drones'.
Nick Childs, senior fellow for naval forces and maritime security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: 'US action may degrade the threat but, as with the Houthis in the Red Sea, not entirely eliminate it. The experience of the Houthi anti-shipping campaign in and around the Red Sea was that even relatively limited sporadic attacks could raise alarms among ship operators. And even Iran's residual capabilities may be greater than those of the Houthis.'
For many observers, short of regime change there is only one way to guarantee ships can pass through: boots on the ground. 'In practical terms, technology and naval power can contain and manage a crisis at sea,' Dahouk said, 'but durable security of critical maritime chokepoints needs some degree of influence or control on land.'