Putin and Trump face off over the future of Armenia

Sunday, 31 May 2026

Armenia

Russia and the United States are jostling for influence in Armenia ahead of vital elections that could see the former Soviet state accelerate its pivot away from Moscow towards the West.

Although Armenia gained independence with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 it maintained close economic and military ties with Russia for decades. Those ties are unravelling as Armenia seeks membership of the European Union and closer relations with the US.

A landlocked country of three million people, Armenia has fought two wars with neighbouring Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region since the 1990s. It also borders Georgia, Iran and Turkey.

Russia, whose influence has fallen dramatically in the former Soviet Union in recent years, has responded to Armenia's overtures towards the West with threats and warnings. President Vladimir Putin drew parallels this month between Armenia's drive to join the EU and Russia's war in Ukraine. 'How did it start? It started with Ukraine's joining or attempting to join the EU,' he said.

President Donald Trump is keen to boost ties with Armenia. He endorsed Nikol Pashinyan, Armenia's pro-western prime minister and leader of the Civil Contract party, on Thursday ahead of parliamentary elections on June 7. “[He] completely shares my vision of PEACE and PROSPERITY for Armenia and the entire South Caucasus region … Make (Armenia) Great Again - MAGA!” Trump wrote on social media.

A strategic partnership between Washington and Yerevan, the capital of Armenia, was signed during a stopover visit by Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, on Wednesday.

Rubio and Pashinyan also signed a deal on critical minerals and another on plans to build a 43km transit corridor across southern Armenia that would give Azerbaijan a direct route to its exclave of Nakhchivan, the northwest tip of which borders Turkey, Azerbaijan's main ally. It will be called the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity. The deal to build the corridor was agreed at the White House in August during a meeting between Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev, the Azeri president.

Dozens of European leaders, including President Emmanuel Macron of France, attended the inaugural EU-Armenia summit in Yerevan on May 4. Pashinyan announced that his country would be 'happy and enthusiastic' if it were invited to join the EU.

Moscow said on Thursday that it had warned the Armenian government that it could freeze or even terminate deliveries of cheap gas, oil products and rough diamonds unless it dropped plans to join the bloc. More than 80% of Armenia’s gas came from Russia last year. Russia has already banned the imports of Armenian products such as brandy, wine and flowers.

Dmitry Medvedev, a senior Russian national security official, was more explicit in his warnings regarding Armenia's EU ambitions, saying that Pashinyan was in danger of “pushing his motherland down the sorrowful path” of Ukraine. Unlike Ukraine, Armenia does not share a border with Russia. However, Russia has a military base that is home to about 5000 troops in Gyumri, Armenia's second city.

While Pashinyan, a former journalist, came to power in 2018 after a bloodless revolution that brought down Serzh Sargsyan, the pro-Russia prime minister, he was careful to maintain good relations with Moscow. However, after Russia's failure to come to Armenia's assistance during its 2023 conflict with Azerbaijan, Pashinyan moved swiftly to try to take his country closer to the West.

Despite opposition, he is also seeking to secure a historic peace agreement with Azerbaijan, a move that became possible after Armenia dropped any claims to Nagorno-Karabakh. A deal would allow Armenia to open its borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey, which have been closed since the 1990s.

He has said that Armenia was “not an ally of Russia on the issue of Ukraine”. In 2023, Armenia joined the International Criminal Court, which has issued a warrant for Putin's arrest over the forced deportation of Ukrainian children.

Pashinyan's ruling party holds a comfortable lead in opinion polls - 32% of voters said they would back it for a third term. Its nearest rival, Strong Armenia, which is led by Samvel Karapetyan, an Armenian-Russian tycoon, is backed by 6% of voters, according to a poll by the Washington-based International Republican Institute (IRI).

Armenia is still a member of the Eurasian Economic Union [EAEU], a Moscow-led customs bloc of former Soviet states. Pashinyan said this week: “The people of Armenia should have an alternative - to be part of the EAEU or the EU. It's not up to me to decide this, but you, the citizens of Armenia. My goal is to ensure that you have an alternative, and you do.”