Canterbury loves league, but will an NRL team actually pay off for the region?

Saturday, 27 June 2026

A rugby league franchise could bring jobs, investment and attention to Canterbury, but the true benefit would depend on whether it created new spending or merely shifted money already circulating in the region.

A permanent National Rugby League (NRL) club based in Christchurch would bring broadcast distributions, sponsorship and investor money into the city, employ players and staff, and provide a second major winter tenant for the new stadium.

There would also be intangible benefits, such as greater civic pride, a stronger South Island sporting identity and another reason for people to see Christchurch as an attractive place to live, visit and do business.

The NRL is considering adding a 20th team, with the city viewed as a contender because of the stadium, strong crowds and established rugby league following across the South Island.

A decision and timeframe remain unclear, with Christchurch City Council, the NRL and the bidders declining to comment on the bid’s status.

Sports teams do bring millions of dollars in spending and economic activity to a region, but the net benefit – and how much of that money would be genuinely new – is much harder to establish.

Economic forecasts for recent NRL expansion teams have varied widely, reflecting different assumptions about visitor spending, employment and flow-on activity.

Modelling for the recently admitted Perth Bears estimates an annual benefit of A$28 million ($34m) for the city. Moreton Bay, near Brisbane, projected the Dolphins, which joined the NRL in 2023, would contribute A$74.88m ($91m) a year.

One bidder has claimed a Christchurch team could contribute $50m a year, but no public modelling shows how much of that would be genuinely new to Canterbury.

Tourism economist Shane Vuletich said a professional club should first be viewed as a new company operating in the region.

“Basically, it’s a business,” he said. “You’re bringing a fairly significant business into the city that attracts funding from various sources and spends that money to deliver its service.”

Modelling prepared for one of the South Island bids in 2024 forecast a club with annual revenue of $36.2m.

The largest source of income was an assumed $20.9m annual NRL distribution, followed by $7.3m in sponsorship. Player wages were forecast at about $14m a year, with millions more spent on club staff, match operations, marketing and administration.

A permanent club could also create a professional pathway for South Island players who now often have to move north or to Australia to enter elite development systems.

The report forecast the club could make about $3m a year, but it did not calculate the wider effect on tourism, regional GDP or jobs outside the club.

Massey University sports economist Sam Richardson said a profitable club and a wealthier regional economy were not the same thing.

International research generally found professional teams added little to their host cities because much of the spending on tickets, hospitality and merchandise came from local residents who would otherwise have spent the money elsewhere.

“On balance, there’s often not much of an economic boost,” he said. “It’s not to say that there’s nothing to be gained, but rather there are potential reasons to expect a more moderate estimate of impact.”

Richardson said it was unclear whether the club would attract an entirely new audience or take spectators and spending from the Crusaders and Canterbury Rugby.

One New Zealand Stadium’s first NRL match last Sunday attracted nearly 6000 visitors from outside the region and generated about $4.7m in spending from the Warriors-Cowboys clash.

However, an established team playing every second week could not expect every match to sell out or attract the same number of travelling supporters.

Rugby, wine and skiing

The case that teams increase tourism is also complicated.

A Christchurch team would guarantee regular matches against Australian clubs, but Vuletich said it would be unrealistic to expect large numbers of visiting supporters to cross the Tasman every fortnight.

“It’s unusual for fans to regularly travel across the Ditch to follow their team,” he said. “You get the odd super-fan who’ll do that.”

Events such as the NRL’s Magic Round or rugby’s Super Round were different because they concentrated several teams and matches into a single weekend, giving supporters a stronger reason to travel.

Christchurch could still have an advantage over other cities if it packaged ordinary NRL games with skiing, food and wine, or a wider South Island holiday.

“You’ve certainly got a better chance of creating that sort of visitation than maybe Auckland during winter, because Auckland doesn’t have a winter proposition that’s as strong as mountains and snow,” Vuletich said.

“But I can’t see that being a major play without a lot of effort.”

However, Australian sports economist Tim Harcourt said the benefits would depend on how Christchurch used the team and stadium beyond NRL match days.

“If you have a stadium precinct in which you can do other events – multiple sports, conferences and concerts – then you can generate benefits beyond just a footy game,” he said.

Christchurch had an advantage because the stadium was already built, reducing the additional public investment needed to host a franchise.

“I think it’s a big advantage for tourism and the local authorities to show off the city while they’re doing the coverage,” he said.

Richardson said even genuine visitor spending would not necessarily represent a net gain for the South Island or New Zealand. Supporters might visit Christchurch instead of Dunedin or Wellington, bring forward a holiday they were already planning, or displace other tourists during busy weekends.

“There’s potential for wider spending, however the NRL is a weekly competition, so visiting fans are likely to spend a shorter period of time because their team will be playing back home the following weekend,” he said.

However, Vuletich said the civic value of a team could be as important as its immediate financial return.

Residents placed value on having major sport and entertainment available even when they did not attend every event.

“That’s all part of city building – creating a city that people want to be part of and feel like there are lots of things to do and lots of reasons to live there,” he said.

Richardson agreed that civic pride, entertainment and quality-of-life benefits were real, but said they should not be presented as conventional economic returns.

“If they are after an amenity that will boost civic pride and quality of life, perhaps it might be worth it,” he said. “If they are expecting economic returns, it is probably better to spend elsewhere.”