Could ‘Rollincoln’ become the country’s next city?

Saturday, 4 November 2023

Rolleston has expanded by 17 times over the last two decades, while Lincoln is on a path to grow 58% in the next 25 years. If the towns were to meet, they’d create New Zealand’s newest city.

Selwyn’s population explosion could create New Zealand’s next city - if two once sleepy townships morph into one.

Less than 5km of rurally-zoned land separates Rolleston and Lincoln - most of it stretches of farmland, sprinkled with lifestyle blocks.

A new Infometrics analysis shows a combined Rolleston-Lincoln urban area could have a population of 53,900 by 2048, giving “Rollincoln” city status - overtaking Whanganui, Upper Hutt, Invercargill and Nelson.

Rolleston is already the country’s fastest growing urban area, expanding by 17 times between 1996 and 2022. Lincoln is on a similar trajectory, and is anticipated to grow 58% between 2022 and 2048 - while Rolleston’s expected growth is 41% over the same period.

Selwyn now accounts for about 25% of Greater Christchurch area’s residential consents, according to Infometrics provisional estimates. The district’s economy has seen the strongest growth of all council areas since before the pandemic, and its annual GDP growth regularly tops the New Zealand average.

Projected population change of medium urban areas 2022-48.

Despite the boom, there are hurdles to “Rollincoln” becoming reality. Virtually all the land between the two townships is categorised as highly productive - protected under the national policy statement introduced last year - and much of it is owned by a charitable trust or Lincoln University. Selwyn’s district plan maintains the status quo. There is also public sentiment.

“We do not want Lincoln and Rolleston to combine and are not planning for them to become a single city,” Selwyn mayor Sam Broughton said.

“We continue to hear from our community the importance of each township retaining its individual character… [Rollincoln] is not a name I’ll use. The towns each already have their names.”

Infometrics senior economist Nick Brundson, who mooted Rollincoln as a working title, said land use rules could change.

While the definition of a city requires 50,000 people within a contiguous urban area, Brundson reckoned Rollincoln could sneak in if the developments edged closer.

“Even with some farmland in the middle - they’d be hard pressed to argue it’s not contiguous”, he said, given “softer linkages” like sports clubs and schools.

And if it’s not to be a mash up, Rolleston alone could take the title.

With the town’s history of exceeding projections and StatsNZ numbers being “a bit conservative”, Brundson said it could have 50,000 residents by 2048, rather than the projected 39,400.

Rolleston and Lincoln are 5km apart and if they meet they'll achieve city status within 25 years. However, the space between them is highly productive land.

“I’d rate that chance as higher than anywhere else in the country.”

Brunsdon said councils that could bank on growth could spend more on community amenities and infrastructure.

Stephanie Wills lives on 4ha of rural zone between Rolleston and Lincoln, at Dalkeith, a large country garden established in the 1950s.

Rolleston resident Rachel de Vries says she’s not opposed to development between Selwyn’s two largest towns, but has concerns about the capacity of the area’s secondary schools.

She loved the rural nature of the area with its farmers and market gardeners.

Even if the council rezoned the land, she would be reluctant to sell to a developer and would not like too much development around her.

“I won’t sell my garden. Not for a long time. It’s the peace, the quiet. We have lots of birds around. I grew up in the country, my kids grew up in the country. It’s just so beautiful here. It’s like living in a park,” she said.

Rolleston Community Patrol leader Karen Evans (with patrol trainer Andrew Blumberg). Evans has lived in the town for 20 years, and had seen huge changes.

Rolleston resident Rachel de Vries moved her growing family from Christchurch to Rolleston about 15 years ago, drawn by the affordability.

When she arrived there was a roundabout, a pub, a supermarket and a few small shops. “I very naively thought Rolleston was a nice quiet place… now it feels like a big growing bustling town,” she said. “I feel very lucky we purchased when we did because our property has grown in value.”

In 2021, Rolleston gained three times as many new residents as Auckland, Hamilton, Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin combined, according to StatsNZ population estimates, and new subdivisions stretch towards Lincoln.

She was not opposed to more development between Rolleston and Lincoln but believed a new high school was needed to keep up with demand.

“Now we just need a Mitre10 and a bookstore and I’d never have to leave.”

Lincoln University senior lecturer Dr Shannon Davis says we need to need to think about new ways to plan for and design both semi-rural land and cities to retain critical “edge areas”.

Rolleston Community Patrol chairperson Karen Evans, who moved to the town in 2003, was not in favour of losing the rural buffer.

“We will have no land in New Zealand if they keep developing.”

Vast areas of the land between the two townships has been categorised as highly productive land - Land Use Capability 1, 2 and 3 - the three most versatile soil types.

She did not believe the area had enough amenities, schools or infrastructure to cope with the predicted growth.

Hamish Wheelans, of property development company Gillman Wheelans, believed it would be a long time before the gap filled between Rolleston and Lincoln, and it would make more sense to allow development between Prebbleton and Halswell.

He said creating a unitary council would mean a more holistic and less ad hoc approach to planning.

Lincoln University senior lecturer Dr Shannon Davis said sprawl swallowing townships was a “distinct threat”.

The “conundrum” facing much of the country was complicated by one national policy statement protecting highly productive land, and another requiring councils to remove urban growth restrictions.

Davis said productive land needed to be protected for numerous reasons, particularly growing food, but also for multiple “ecosystem services” - like stormwater management, flood mitigation, climate regulation and pollination - the land provided to cities.

Well-designed cities would attract people away from “edge areas”, she said.

Many residents she spoke to in her research moved to Lincoln because of its rural character, which they wanted to see protected.

“New Zealanders appreciate the amenity of living in those semi-rural landscapes, having those views and being part of their agricultural foundation of the country.

“I don't think it’s going to be an issue we can stop.”