Christchurch is getting older, more diverse - and much, much bigger

Thursday, 30 May 2024

Greater Christchurch has continued its rapid post-earthquakes population growth, welcoming nearly 50,000 new residents over the past five years.

The first tranche of results from last year’s Census were released on Wednesday.

They show Greater Christchurch’s population grew nearly 10% between 2018 and 2023, faster than the national total of 6.3%

It was driven by extraordinary growth in Selwyn, which recorded a 29% population increase in the same period— the highest in the country. Its population of 78,000 is 75% higher than a decade ago.

When combined with Waimakariri (11.3% increase) and Christchurch city (6.1% increase), the trio of councils comprising the Second City are undergoing a population boom.

It is a contrast to Auckland and Wellington, which are both lagging behind the national average. Wellington city was the only area in mainland New Zealand to have a population loss since 2018, the census data showed. When including the surrounding cities, its growth was less than 2%.

Auckland had population growth of 5.4%.

The figures are the first glimpse at findings from the census, which is run every five years. The released figures include population, ethnicity, and age data to a city/district level.

More granular data would be released later in the year.

Older, more diverse

Nationally, the results had few surprises.

Population growth slowed, in part due to declining birth rates and slowed migration during the pandemic. We are slowly getting older — the median age is now 38.1, up from 37.4 — and more ethnically varied.

These trends are evident in Christchurch, which is gradually bucking its long-held reputation for monoculturalism.

Since 2001, the proportion of the city’s residents who claimed European ethnicity has fallen from 87% to 75.9%.

In the same period, the proportion of Māori rose from 6.9% to 11.2%, and Asian ethnicities from 5.5% to 17.1%.

(The numbers do not add to 100% because people could select multiple ethnicities).

The trend is less obvious in the rest of the South Island, but since 2018, Westland and Kaikōura were the only areas where the European population did not proportionally decline.

Now, one in five South Islanders has either a Māori or an Asian ethnicity, and one in four have a non-European ethnicity.

Christchurch resident Agnes Guda is from the Philippines and said the city's Filipino community is big enough for plenty of cultural, social and sporting activities. She also enjoys the access to Filipino food and ingredients.

'We are very fortunate with the diversity and inclusiveness - we feel very welcome here,' Guda said.

'It's not hard for us to assimilate, and we can also express our own selves. Sometimes it just feels like home.'

The Mainland

Outside of Greater Christchurch, the population change story was mixed. For every quickly expanding community, another lagged behind.

The South Island’s proportion of the national population marginally rose, from 23.5% to 23.7%

Dunedin’s population growth was the slowest in the South Island at 2.1%, followed by Gore (2.5%), Invercargill (2.6%), and Timaru (2.7%). All were significantly below the national average.

One surprise is the Buller District, which notched up an 8.9% population increase. Between 2013 and 2018, it had lost 8.4% of its population — which it has now almost completely recovered.

At the higher end, Queenstown-Lakes had the second largest increase nationally with 22.1% growth.

Central Otago had the fifth highest national increase with 12.7%.

Second City

It has been an impressive run for the Greater Christchurch area, which since the earthquakes has firmly established itself as the largest population hub outside Auckland.

Its population of 535,000 well exceeds that of the 415,000 living in Greater Wellington (comprising Wellington city, Porirua, Lower Hutt, and Upper Hutt).

With a population of over 391,000, Christchurch city is now nearly double the size of Wellington city (around 203,000)

The most impressive growth, however, has been on the periphery of Christchurch.

With a population now tantalisingly close to 80,000, Selwyn has leapt ahead of Rotorua, the Far North, and Napier to become the country’s 5th largest district.

Rolleston Residents Association chair Mark Alexander has seen the town's population balloon from 1000 to about 30,000 in the almost 30 years he has lived in the area.

He said while the new public amenities, shops and motorway improve liveability, the big draw is house prices and land for housing.

'You get a newer house on a bigger section for less money. We have people shifting down from Auckland and they can buy two homes for the price of one - a home to live in and one to rent out.'

Alexander said Selwyn's fast growth greatly benefits Christchurch city by providing a workforce, consumers, and jobs in places such as the Rolleston industrial area.

More express buses to the city and safety getting on and off State Highway 1 are population-related issues needing attention, he said.