Ambitious plan to grow Timaru’s population and economy in works

Tuesday, 5 November 2024

Timaru could grow its economy to almost triple its current $3.2 billion value with some bold planning, a new report says.

Just 18 months ago, Timaru was the toast of the country, making nationwide headlines as the best regional centre to live in.

Community leaders, including mayor Nigel Bowen, dined out on bragging rights.

The district received the honours in a Stuff study examining the country’s 11 regions that do not have a metropolis. The regions were ranked according to unemployment rate, housing affordability, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and sunshine hours.

That was March 2023.

Since then, the tide has gone out a little on the best regional centre. In Timaru, the impacts of Covid have caught up, unemployment is up, GDP is down, and spending growth is slower than in other centres.

In recent weeks there have been significant hits with the closure of one of the district’s biggest employers, Alliance Group’s Smithfield plant, as well as the loss of the lucrative Scott Base redevelopment contract.

But it is hoped that a new report, commissioned by the district’s economic development and tourism agency, Venture Timaru, will be a catalyst for efforts to tackle that head-on and create a truly enviable place to live.

Think higher paid jobs, increased productivity and an enviable quality of life for all – that’s the aim of business and community leaders.

Venture Timaru wants the entire community to share views and ideas that will help inform the Towards 2050 plan.

The agency commissioned economist Benje Patterson to look into where the district could be by 2050 and plans to use his work to kickstart a conversation about the future of the district.

The report, titled ‘Scenarios of an aspirational economic future for Timaru’, looked at current trends across four key economic indicators: GDP, job numbers, population growth and productivity.

It assessed what the district would look like in 2050 if the status quo remained and compared that with hypothetical scenarios labelled ‘a bit more’ and ‘much better’.

Patterson described the ‘much better’ scenario as the most “ambitious and transformational”, with employment increasing by 16,500 jobs and the district’s GDP nearly tripling.

Economist and strategist Benje Patterson.

Under that scenario, the district would need to attract more than 1000 people to move in each year, to reach a population of about 75,000. That would mean a need for about 9000 new houses, 200 to 300 new classrooms and up to 1500 more health and social workers.

Patterson said such growth would offer new opportunities, leading to more and higher-paying jobs, and the economy could be worth $9.1 billion, almost triple its current $3.2b value.

Under the slightly less ambitious ‘a bit more’ scenario, the population would need to increase to 67,500, an increase of 800 people each year, with the potential for an economy worth $6b.

“This level of migration would be twice as high as Timaru’s average migration gains in recent history.”

Shoppers out doing their Christmas shopping in December 2023.

However, he said, if Timaru couldn’t attract enough new residents to lift employment, a “transformative shift in productivity alone would be enough to almost double the size of Timaru’s economy” – taking it from $3.2b in 2021 to $5.6b in 2050.

The report also highlighted the risks of maintaining the status quo. These included challenges posed by the ageing population and increasing death rate, a trend similar to most provincial areas of New Zealand.

By 2050, 30% of the population would be at retirement age. To counteract that and keep the current level of employment, Timaru’s population would need to increase from 50,200 to 53,000, he said.

Venture Timaru chief executive Nigel Davenport described the results as “quite confronting” and said now was the time to be bold, innovative and aspirational about the future of the district.

“On current trends, come 2050, we are neither better off nor do we maintain status quo – we actually go backwards. And this, being something I’m sure we all agree on, is simply not acceptable,” he said.

“Put bluntly, we need to do much better to maintain and then enhance the vibrancy and prosperity of our great district.”

An aerial view of Timaru’s Caroline Bay and port.

As to how that might be achieved, Davenport said Timaru has a competitive advantage in the food and fibre, logistics and professional, scientific and technical services sectors.

“Moving forward, it is important we play to, and enhance, our existing strengths but also explore and attract adjacent and new business while embracing innovation and creativity.”

Patterson said those sectors were the logical starting point for shifting Timaru’s productivity dial.

“Initially many of Timaru’s productivity wins will be found working with existing businesses in existing industries to streamline processes, explore adjacent products, and invest in proven technologies.”

Timaru mayor Nigel Bowen, centre left, and Venture Timaru chief executive Nigel Davenport, centre right, speak to NZ Meat Workers Union representatives before an Alliance Group meeting in Timaru last month at which hundreds of workers were told of plans to close the Smithfield plant.

Transformations that built on existing strengths were “easier to conceptualise”, he said, but “blue-sky opportunities in new industries are harder to map out” and many were reliant on yet-to-be-developed technologies.

In exploring new opportunities, the district must beware of broader megatrends, long-term forces that can change industries Timaru might be competitive in, Patterson said.

His report listed some of those as including the enduring change in consumer demands post-Covid, the changing expectations of younger generations for better work-life balance, the impacts of automation, and changing consumer preferences in terms of environmental impacts and sustainability.

He said there would also be a number of other enabling factors that an ambitious plan would be reliant on. Those included sufficient land and infrastructure, access to capital investment, transport connections, a skilled workforce, more housing and health and education services.

“Productivity, employment, and population growth are key drivers of economic prosperity, but these can’t happen in isolation and in turn rely on investments in underlying foundations related to skills, natural resources, housing, infrastructure, and social and cultural captial.”

Bowen was on board with the notion of taking an aspirational approach to the future of his district and said it was time to explore new opportunities.

“This is all about igniting a collaborative and cohesive aspirational approach to all our district can be, and so much more, come 2050 and beyond,” he said.

“Importantly, this will not be informed by individuals but by all of us.

“There will be no reinventing [of] any wheels. Rather, plans already under way across various sectors and areas will be brought together in a way that we can all grasp, advocate for and play our part in making happen.”

Davenport said that while there was still much work to be done, he was excited about the next two years as Venture Timaru works with the community to bring a plan to life.

“Widespread engagement across our community will get under way, as everyone who calls the district home has an important role to play, and we are keen to hear from everyone.”

He said an online platform had been established through which people could share input, and this would be complemented by in-person meetings.

“The information gathered will be collated to help develop and implement the Towards 2050 plan, which will encompass our communities’ aspirations for our district, along with associated barriers to achievement and the opportunities to overcome these.”