Selwyn’s growth nightmare: The cost of government underinvestment

Saturday, 29 March 2025

Once a patchwork of sleepy rural towns, Selwyn’s rapid expansion means the now booming district is outpacing investment, community leaders say. MAXINE JACOBS examines its growing pains.

Thirty years ago Selwyn was a district of small townships. Today, its biggest hub is larger than the main centres of some of its neighbouring districts.

Unprecedented growth has left local council and community leaders struggling to keep up with the needs of the booming population, and many are pointing to successive governments having failed to recognise and properly fund its services.

Last year, the Selwyn District Council scoured data from police, Stats NZ, Health New Zealand - Te Whatu Ora, Healthpoint and more to build a true picture of the growing pains felt across the district.

It was all to showcase the lack of government investment into the fastest growing district in the country in a bid to gain the recognition and funding needed to support its growth now and in the future.

The challenges are daunting.

The district has fewer general practices, blood services, dental clinics and pharmacies per capita than Waimakariri or Timaru. There are no local offices for Kāinga Ora, Ministry of Social Development, or Oranga Tamariki, unlike most of its neighbouring districts.

There are almost 2000 residents for every police officer - more than four times the ratio the previous Labour-led government set as a target - and crime in Rolleston has increased 200% in the past five years.

Of the 19 primary schools with more than 700 pupils across the country, five are in Selwyn.

Mayor Sam Broughton says the community has felt the pressure of booming growth on local services for years, but now they have comprehensive data showing the true cost of growth for Selwynites.

The number of homes in the district grew by 78% between 2013 and 2023, from 15,228 to 27,153. Nationally, growth in home numbers was just under 15% in that period, from 1.57 million homes to 1.8 million.

Broughton says much of the boom was attributed to the Canterbury earthquakes, which saw people move from Christchurch to the outer districts.

But Selwyn has been one of the fastest growing districts in the country for decades.

In the 1970s fewer than 1000 people lived in Rolleston. In the 2000s that jumped to about 8000. By June 2024 it had a population of 31,600, and in 30 years the number of people living there is projected to be 55,250.

But Selwyn has been wrong with its projections before.

For at least the past three long-term plans Selwyn’s expected population growth, based off high projections from Stats NZ, has been off by tens of thousands of people.

According to the council’s 2015-25 long-term plan, the population should be 67,000 this year. Last year there were 86,500 people in the district, almost 30% more than anticipated.

By 2034 the population is expected to reach 109,000, but that figure is now likely to be out by about 14,000 people due to the Government’s approval of 4727 homes under the Fast-Track Approvals Act last year.

Broughton says councils try to respond and prepare for growth, but much of the investment needed to keep up falls to the government.

‘Unravelling the vision’

Councils collect rates to fund local roads, footpaths, water, waste, and community facilities like libraries and parks, while administering the Resource Management Act.

The government collects taxes to fund things like education, police, social services, housing, national roads, health and infrastructure.

Broughton says his council works with the government to ensure his district receives the funding it needs. However, the power rests with the government and its vision for the future.

Partnership with the government is akin to asking your mother to get McDonald’s for dinner as a child. She is driving the car and has the wallet, and you have to hope your pleas for a Happy Meal are successful, otherwise you have to make do with food at home.

Broughton says the three-year electoral cycle does not help the situation.

Local councils prepare 30-year plans to keep up with forecast growth, he says, like its open spaces strategy.

In 2015 Selwyn’s council assessed and mapped out the provisions required for the district’s aesthetic, social, ecological, cultural and economic needs.

It took into account the booming growth and tried to predict what the community needed to thrive up to 2044.

Broughton says planning this far in advance gives the council the structure and confidence in the vision for the future.

While local government also has a three-year election cycle, its planning is not constrained to the ideas and ideologies of party politics, unlike central government.

With the three-year government election cycle comes three-year planning, Broughton says, a structure that he suggests can unravel the vision and preparation of local councils.

“We are determining things for the next 30 years, that means we’ve really clearly thought through what needs to happen, and we receive those plans every three years so they are current and stay up to date.

“Priorities can be moved and shifted around, but for the government with no 30-year planning, all they’re doing is reacting through this year’s budget, next year’s budget, and then the election cycle, which creates massive uncertainty for stuff that’s too important to be left to a three-year cycle.”

Discussions around a four-year term resurfaced after the Government announced in February it was introducing new legislation that would enable an extension of Parliament’s term, subject to a referendum.

ACT Party leader David Seymour said the nation wanted more stability, and that people were “sick of policies chopping and changing”.

Broughton agrees with the premise, but says one more year of power would not solve the fundamental issue of underinvestment.

The growing pains Selwyn and other councils are facing were not down to any one party, he says, rather it is underinvestment by successive governments in services only they have control over.

“People expect taxes to cover that stuff, but it’s gaps left by the government who don’t see local need and local community at the granular level that local government does.”

‘Successive let-downs’

On Selwyn’s streets, views were mixed.

In Rolleston, Debbie Lange, 54, says it does not matter what the community’s needs are, the common people’s voices are not heard either way.

“I don’t think the Government’s doing enough, but I think they’re doing all the wrong things anyway.”

Lange, who voted for National in the past election, says it is not any one government letting down the district, rather it is successive ones.

“I don’t think our government’s here for the people. I don’t think they were with Labour, I don’t think they are with National. They’ve lost their focus on what they’re supposed to be doing.

“They have their own agenda and just do what they want to do. They’re meant to work for us, but they all have their own agenda - Jacinda [Ardern] did, Chris [Luxon] did, they can’t help it.

“When you go into a job you push what you’re comfortable with, and that’s what happens, and we are just the ducks at the end - we don’t get a say.”

She says investment is being injected into the North Island, not the South Island, such as Canterbury receiving the least transport funding per capita than every other region from 2024-27. She also thinks the decision to increase capacity at Rolleston College rather than create a different high school takes away choice for local parents.

Retiree Stephen Robinson, 67, is concerned about how funding is affecting the retention of health services and staff.

“You’re always going to be short of essential services, whether it be police or doctors and nurses, but if they’re going to get more [money] overseas and be supported then they’re going to go.”

Robinson says the Government needs to put its money where its mouth is to enable adequate resourcing.

“They’ve got to do something about it and get their head out of the sand.”

Dr Miriam Martin is acutely aware of the issues facing the health sector.

Martin owns Village Health on Christchurch’s Lincoln Rd, and is one of three groups in the process of opening medical centres in Rolleston this year. Phoenix Healthcare and WeCare Faringdon are also set to open in the next six months.

Selwyn’s data hunt last year showed 32% of residents were enrolled in general practices outside the district, a stark difference to the 15% in neighbouring Waimakariri.

Martin says that figure is not unexpected, as Selwyn has grown so quickly it is likely many people who moved from Christchurch have stayed with their family doctor.

She says it takes patients about 18 months of driving across town before they get tired of it and start looking for healthcare closer to home. However, if they do try to enrol with a closer GP it is unlikely they would get a timely appointment, she says.

“When they can’t enrol in Selwyn they probably think, ‘I’ll just stick with the doctor [I] have’, but I don’t think individual practices can really solve the whole problem of funding in the health system either.”

Funding is a systemic issue perpetuated by the government, she says. Funding mechanisms for patients are based on the average number of times a person of a certain age should be making appointments with their GP, but Martin argues that life and sickness do not work like that.

This leaves no funding for acute care patients who need more doctor’s visits, leaving practices across the country under-resourced and out of pocket.

It also does not motivate staff to pick up caseloads for patients needing more care, rather those who need visits are being pushed out of general practices and into the hospital system due to the workload, she says.

Health Minister Simeon Brown says he understands the significant growth of Selwyn has caused concern about access to health services, but the opening of the three new practices should alleviate the pressure.

Brown says the ministry and council are collecting data to project the prevalence of health conditions in the rapidly growing and ageing population of the district.

“This data will help the area plan health services and infrastructure requirements for the region.”

Martin says the Government’s focus should be on putting money where need is, rather than funding “shiny new things like drugs or flash machines”.

“A lot of the health system is run by hospital-focused people, so when money’s being distributed it’s very easy to steal it off primary care and inappropriately fund it, not realising that actually the more you steal off primary care, the harder it is going to be for secondary care.”

Chasing to catch up

Away from the doctor’s offices, crime in Selwyn has also increased in line with the population boom.

In the past five years the total number of violent acts intended to injure people doubled compared to the previous five years, the number of people falling victim to crime increased by 56%, theft was up two-thirds and and there were 20% more burglaries, according to police data.

In Rolleston, crime increased by 200% from 2015 to 2023, while in Lincoln it rose 76%.

Broughton says the rise in crime made sense due to the growing population, but is a clear sign more police are needed to ensure Selwyn remains one of the safest districts in the country.

Selwyn currently has one police officer for every 1927 people, a substantial difference from the promises made in 2022 of one for every 480 people.

The former Labour government made that promise, but once the Coalition Government came to power that ratio was scrapped.

Police Minister Mark Mitchell told Parliament in 2023 the commitment was never finalised or funded adequately by the previous government, and that the National-led coalition would instead focus on retaining 500 more front-line police.

Broughton says it is another example of the three-year election cycle at work.

But Canterbury’s rural area commander Inspector Peter Cooper says the ratio of one officer for every 1927 residents is a little inaccurate.

Cooper, who started in the role in 2016, says 10 years ago Selwyn was “a whole lot of small country towns”.

“But they’re growing and changing, so we can’t continue to police town by town, we have to deliver our service as a Selwyn response team - and we have.”

Cooper says there is a Canterbury-wide approach to policing, and officers constantly move between districts to meet the needs of communities.

“If that unit that attends [an incident] in Rolleston comes from Christchurch, Rangiora or Ashburton, the people in the house don’t care, as long as we turn up.

“Government organisations are always reactive to things, unfortunately, so councils and people in the community are always more forward-thinking when it comes to this, but it is an unprecedented amount of growth there.”

Rolleston is already larger than Timaru and Rangiora, and Selwyn’s population is anticipated to grow to 109,000 in the next decade, nearing the size of Dunedin’s current population of 136,000.

“That’s a massive and unexpected growth cycle for anyone to go through,” Cooper says. “So [police are] always in catch-up a wee bit.”

But that does not mean the district is under served by police, he says. A trial was set up 18 months ago at Rolleston police station to ensure local police were rostered on duty 24 hours a day to serve Selwyn, something Cooper hopes to expand in the future.

The problem now is the station is too small, but there are discussions between the council, police, Hato Hone St John and Fire and Emergency New Zealand to set up an emergency hub in Rolleston.

In the meantime, regardless of which party is in power, Cooper says the fundamental functions of police are solid.

“Policies on different focuses come and go, and we adjust to that, but fundamentally we are servants of the community. Government is important, but the cycle of government isn’t how we operate.”

Acting Police Minister Casey Costello says that of the Government’s $350 million policing budget in 2024, $225m was focused on recruitment, equipment and staff retention.

“There is no Government target around staff-to-population ratios, but I would expect that with the increase in staffing, and a focus on core policing, all districts should expect to see an increase in police presence.”

She also says she understands seven graduates from a recent police recruitment wing are being deployed to Canterbury.

Education for the future

While aspiring police officers were going through college, Rolleston College principal Rachel Skelton was concerned for the children who will need education in the coming years.

In the past year the expansion of Rolleston College’s first campus was completed, adding capacity for another 700 students, building began on the college’s second campus, work started on a new primary school, and redevelopment started at Ellesmere College and Lincoln High School.

Skelton says it is good to see the investment, but it is not going to be enough to handle the coming wave of high school students.

Once the second campus is completed, Rolleston College will be able to take on 4100 students. However, Skelton says it is just a Band-Aid to a growing problem.

In March the school had 1945 students. Even with the developments there will only be room for another 955 students once the extra 1200 students anticipated to require education in the next five years are there, not including the children who will live in the nearly 5000 new homes being built nearby, Skelton says.

Education Minister Erica Stanford met with educators and the council in November to develop the Selwyn plan, says Nancy Bell from the Ministry of Education.

“We are updating our plans for growth in Selwyn to develop a district-wide education plan, ensuring we can respond effectively to population changes in the region.”

Skelton says that is a great step towards ensuring education is not dictated by the three-year election cycle and will map out a long-term strategy.

But since the meeting she has heard nothing.

“I have great anticipation,” she says.