Thriving or barely surviving: The uncertain future for the South Island’s ski industry

Saturday, 30 August 2025

**It is a stark divide, **driven not just by luck, but elevation, geography and a changing climate. As record crowds carve through pristine snow at Canterbury’s Mt Dobson and Mt Hutt, three South Island fields haven’t opened. After their worst winter ever, some club operators are looking at how they can adapt to a less snowy world. ELSIE WILLIAMS reports.

Mt Dobson owner Peter Foote says his Canterbury skifield is enjoying one of its best seasons in nearly 30 years.

The reason? A “lucky” snow dump in July, steady moisture, modest top-ups, its high elevation and southeast-facing position.

“Anything that comes from the southeast is to ours and Mt Hutt’s advantage.”

So advantageous that Mt Hutt has the southern hemisphere’s deepest snow base of the season (133cm to 163cm) and more than 95% of its slopes open. It has claimed to have “the best snow in the country” this winter.

Both Mt Dobson and Mt Hutt have reported record mid-week visitor numbers, which Foote believes is due to word of mouth about the “wall to wall” excellent conditions, as well as many other skifields not having much snow.

Mt Hutt ski area manager James McKenzie says they feel for their friends further north, as the decent dump of snow they caught in mid June from the southeast failed to track inland into the Arthur’s Pass area.

McKenzie also credits their success to good snowmaking conditions.

Mt Hutt and Mt Dobson are among the highest skifields in the South Island, with elevations of 2086m and 2030m respectively, allowing them to capture snow from southeast storms and maintain snow cover longer into the season.

Lower elevation skifields at the mercy of mother nature

Three skifields unable to open at all this season - Mt Cheeseman (1840m), Rainbow Ski Area (1760m) and Temple Basin (1753m) - are among the lower elevation resorts in the South Island.

Despite minimal snow, other lower elevation club fields like Broken River and Craigieburn have persevered, welcoming seasoned skiers willing to hike in pursuit of better snow at higher points and navigate rocky, tussock-strewn terrain.

Mt Olympus is running on the “lowest snow” it’s had.

“We’re making the best of the worst,” Mt Olympus chief information officer Thomas Stephens says.

Only half the mountain is skiable, and while one or two poor seasons are manageable, Stephens says anything longer will force them to look hard at their books.

“We also saw rain in July, which is something I’ve never experienced before after 45 years on the mountain.

“It wasn’t catastrophic, but it was right on the edge.”

For others, it has been catastrophic.

Rainbow Ski area manager Marke Dickson says just 29cm of natural snow has fallen since May 1, making it “one of the leanest winters” since Rainbow first opened in 1982.

“There’s been no shortage of precipitation this year, but for skiers and snowboarders, it has been the wrong type.”

Rain rain go away: Not cold enough for snow

This winter’s dominant easterly and northerly winds failed to bring the cold, moist air needed for heavy snowfalls, Earth Science New Zealand (ESNZ) says, leaving much of the South Island with normal or below average precipitation - but falling as rain more often than snow.

Higher, southeast-facing fields such as Mt Hutt and Mt Dobson have been better placed to pick up what snow did come.

Hydrological forecasting scientist Jono Conway says some areas, including Arthur’s Pass and Nelson Lakes, saw “really big” rain events earlier in the season - the kind that would have once been snowfalls.

July was New Zealand’s fourth-warmest on record, with average temperatures 1.1C above normal.

“The expectation with warming is less snowfall at moderate elevations, which is where many of the club fields sit. Higher elevations will feel the impact later, but lower fields are already on the frontline,” Conway says.

What does the future hold for the Kiwi ski industry?

ESNZ principal scientist Chris Brandolino says forecasting the future is challenging, but current projections suggest lower and mid-elevation skifields are likely to experience more rain and less snow by about 2050.

Climate researcher James Renwick, with 40 years’ experience at MetService and Niwa, cautions that while this winter’s poor conditions largely reflect natural variability, climate change is steadily reducing the chance of any future good snow years.

“The chances of seasons like this one are increasing all the time.”

Research from about 15 years ago already showed snowpacks shrinking and seasons growing shorter, and Renwick says the only solution is to curb climate change.

“We need to get our greenhouse gas emissions to zero as fast as possible.”

He adds that, while individuals can reduce their own emissions, pressure is needed for government action - pushing incentives for low-carbon practices and penalties for high-carbon ones.

“Or, we just adapt to a no snow or ice future.”

Mt Cheeseman manager Cam Lill says while they’re “not dead in the water yet”, diversifying - whether rebranding the club or using its mountain lodges year-round - is now essential.

“We’ve survived three tough seasons - from late openings to short runs - but we’ll struggle if we don’t have a reasonable next year.”

Cheeseman is already looking to the future, using its two lodges to host weddings, conferences, and summer mountain activities to generate income year-round and reduce reliance on snowfall.

Ski Areas Association of New Zealand James Lazor executive member says while this winter has been devastating and sad for all struggling fields, the industry’s close-knit nature is a strength.

“Operators regularly share ideas on adapting to climate challenges, from snowmaking strategies to diversifying activities, helping smaller club fields survive lean winters and plan for the future.”

And even after 60 years of skiing, he’s now learning to snowboard. His lessons are packed with international people who’ve come for the chance to experience New Zealand snow, even when conditions are “mediocre”.

Geoffrey Sullivan, of the Temple Basin Ski Committee, says the future of New Zealand skiing “is what it is”.

“We’ll continue to deal with whatever is thrown at us by nature,” he says. He knows that’s true as after 53 years in the industry, he keeps coming back himself - sucked in by the memories, traditions, and people.

“People who walk into the ski industry have an affinity for the extreme. It’s an industry full of like-minded people, and once you’re involved, you can’t stop.”

Things might change - skiing might become canyoning, for instance - but Sullivan says the industry will just keep adapting.