New Zealand's secret weapon – the moral high ground

Friday, 9 January 2026

Martin van Beynen is a Press journalist and regular opinion contributor.

OPINION: It won’t surprise readers that I have, over a short time, developed a sophisticated expertise in geopolitics.

Compared to local body reform, the benefits of capital gains taxes and school curriculum issues, geopolitics is a relatively simple and easy subject to opine on.

My newfound expertise is the result of wide reading of other comment writers, a profound cynicism and closely watching a clever and entertaining Netflix series called The Diplomat.

The latter which is about the American ambassador in Britain has been the most influential. It’s themes are clearly applicable. They include the premises that some adults in the room will always have to curb the inclinations and commands from political leaders; if the death of one innocent will prevent the death of three innocents, the one innocent will die; the public never hear the full truth despite the fact that optics are often the chief consideration; national interest can be clear but is often debatable; nothing is ever as it seems; favours are the currency of international relations and how an action will affect election chances is often the determining factor.

Now you might think it’s a bit flippant to suggest you can absorb expertise by watching a television series. I would agree, except that where America is concerned you get the firm impression its president and its other decision-makers act as though they are in a movie. The daring raid to pluck Venezuela’s leader Nicolás Maduro from a bunker in Caracas could easily have been scripted for an outlandish Hollywood action movie.

The Diplomat series and my other efforts put me in a good position to comment on New Zealand’s interests as they intersect with the downstream effects of the US military incursion into Venezuela.

The simple answer is that any consequential effects of the Fracas in Caracas on New Zealand in the short term are negligible, if not zero, as long as we don’t say too much. In the long run, if things go well, we might get some cheaper petrol although fixing Venezuela’s oil infrastructure and attracting investment when the political situation remains unstable will be difficult.

However, a deeper understanding, available to geopolitical specialists like myself, suggests the Maduro abduction could have wider ramifications. One of those is the further erosion of a rules-based international order. Observing clear rules and norms, such as not invading a sovereign nation, shelter smaller nations from the ambitions of far more powerful countries and generally promote peace and security in the world.

In reality the rules are observed and enforced only when it suits the bigger powers. Enforcement generally needs the approval of the United Nations Security Council, of which two members – China and Russia – are the most flagrant transgressors. The sort of gunboat diplomacy the United States (a security council member) has exercised in Venezuela and now wants to extend into places like Cuba and Greenland suggests it might have left any alliance of the law-abiding.

“No Nukes” New Zealand is a keen supporter of the rules-based order. It doesn’t really have a choice. We are small, weak and irrelevant and take the high road because the low road is blocked.

But that doesn’t mean we have no power or influence in international affairs. Our chief weapon is the moral high ground. We can claim our foreign policy is based not so much on selfish needs, but on the greater good. In other words it’s nice to have us in your camp because we add a sort of moral blessing. Even if we stay out of camp and say nothing, we can still be seen as providing tacit approval. It’s not much power, but it’s not nothing.

In the Venezuelan situation we can afford to keep quiet and see what happens. Although there is a lot of talk about America’s violation of international law, no-one is shedding tears for Maduro and his departure lessens the influence of Russia and China in Venezuela.

President Trump has not helped matters by undermining the American justification that the intervention was a law enforcement action. He seems to think the main issue is oil and in December pardoned former Honduran president Juan Hernández who was serving a 45-year jail sentence for drug charges similar to those in Maduro’s indictment. But no-one is going to blame New Zealand for keeping its counsel. If we want to make some noise about America’s designs on Greenland and interference in Cuba we have strength in numbers.

At this stage it’s uncertain how America is going to control Venezuela where Maduro’s criminal power network remains intact, but that is not New Zealand’s concern. In a revelation that could have been predicted by any keen follower of The Diplomat it turns out the Americans were negotiating with Maduro’s vice president and now acting leader Delcy Rodríguez for months. A tragic outcome would be that things actually get worse for Venezuela where various factions have the potential and firepower to tear the country apart.

History suggests that regime change by America has low chances of success. Critics need to do no more than provide a list. Guatemala. Indonesia. Iran. Cuba. Vietnam. Chile. Afghanistan. Somalia. Haiti. Lebanon. Libya. Iraq. Nicaragua. Venezuela. Perhaps this time will be different, but it would be a poor bet.

Anyway, we don’t have to fly our flag up the mast yet. That’s the other advantage of being a small country. Expectations on us are low. We can afford to wait and see. For further instructions we just need to keep watching The Diplomat.