‘We have to accept losing our children’ - the growing risk of war

Friday, 6 March 2026

Martin van Beynen is a Press journalist and regular opinion contributor.

OPINION: Joining the armed forces has many attractions but getting killed or maimed is not one of them.

I’m not sure when the last New Zealand serviceperson was killed in action but each such fatality has in modern times been treated as a national tragedy with commensurate media attention and often military inquiries.

By comparison, the 12,000 or so New Zealanders killed during World War II were treated more like a statistic which was inevitable given the numbers.

Or maybe we now put a much higher value on each individual human life and high casualties in a conflict have become unthinkable. We are not alone.

When French armed forces head general Fabien Mandon, in a speech about the threats to Europe last year, said “we have to accept losing our children” the response went ballistic. Commentators and politicians called the brutal forecast too blunt, alarmist and “unbearable warmongering”.

Mandon was talking about the need to be ready for possible armed conflict with Russia by 2030 and said France needed to be prepared to suffer.

The Russians apparently have a different attitude to their children dying in warfare. Although the Russian government doesn’t publish information about its casualties in the war in Ukraine, various sources put the number of Russian soldiers killed between 200,000 and 300,000. Ukraine’s military death toll from the conflict sits at around 60,000.

Russian families no doubt grieve for their fallen just as much as Western ones but perhaps they have been brainwashed into thinking their children died for a just cause - defending the motherland.

We may think our distance from likely conflict zones obviates the need to worry much about any threat but we have in recent times been called on to help keep sea lanes open and when boots on the ground are required we will no doubt be expected to contribute. For example, New Zealand could be asked to play a role in repelling a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. As an aside, I read recently that most Taiwanese think resistance is futile and accept their democracy will become part of China.

The world seems a more incendiary place than it did after the end of the Cold War last century. Most European countries have started beefing up their military with some prodding from the United States and New Zealand and Australia are doing the same. And of course, we now have a new Middle East war underway, as the US and Israel attack Iran.

Last year the Government announced $9 billion of new defence spending over the next four years with military spending set to increase to 2% of GDP within about eight years.

The Australian government has committed an extra A$50 billion to defence over the next 10 years and under the plan should be spending around 2.4% of GDP on defence by the early 30s.

All this extra money and capability necessitates higher recruitment or retention of staff and therein lies the problem.

For many years, the New Zealand military has struggled to retain and recruit enough staff particularly those with the skills to keep frigates, trucks and aircraft functional.

In a briefing to the Defence Minister last year, the NZDF said it lost about 30% of its full-time uniformed, trained personnel over a 20-month period, leaving the force significantly short of staff.

Unless we opt for conscription, which I think is not a bad idea, recruitment will be a continual battle with retention of trained staff being even harder.

Again we are not alone.

In December the German government, concerned about Germany’s lack of war readiness, devised a new army recruitment model. From 2026, all 18-year-olds will get a questionnaire assessing their willingness to serve. From 2027, 18-year-old men will take a medical exam.

To address the same issue, French President Emmanuel Macron announced 10 months of paid, voluntary military service for 18- to 25-year-olds, starting in 2026.

Donald Tusk, Poland’s prime minister, is considering military training for all adult men, although there are no firm proposals.

In Sweden, all men and women must register at 18 with a small proportion being drafted for an 11-month spell of military training.

Finland and Norway have had military conscription for decades.

War readiness is different to seeing off your loved one to fight to defend your country or help in defending others. We should all know the terrible cost of war by now but nothing sends the message like coffins coming home.

Before Russia invaded Ukraine we might have been lulled into thinking wars could be fought, with minimal casualties to our servicepeople, by using robots, surgical strikes from the air and drone attacks at lower levels. The bloodshed in Ukraine and Gaza shows that advanced technology does not prevent people dying in great numbers.

The decision to enhance our war readiness seems to have attracted little opposition. Going from 1% to 2% is not a big deal and what’s another couple of billion dollars anyway.

But at some stage the result of our war readiness will mean answering the call to put our children in harm’s way. The world seems to be gearing up for just such a future.